Political Animal
Blog
President Obama offered a status check on debt-reduction talks yesterday, and while he didn’t announce any breakthroughs, a couple of things jumped out.
What struck me as the most noteworthy were his comments about the process’ schedule. We are, after all, talking about a tale of two deadlines: one is August 2, when the nation loses its ability to pay its bills, while the other is the harder-to-define point at which policymakers have to strike a deal.
A month ago, Democrats and Republicans looked to have this worked out before the 4th of July. At a press conference on June 29, the president said he hoped to see “substantial progress” by the end of last week.
Yesterday, however, Obama pointed to a new schedule.
“What I know is that we need to come together over the next two weeks to reach a deal that reduces the deficit and upholds the full faith and credit of the United States government and the credit of the American people.”
Two weeks from yesterday is July 19 — which is also exactly two weeks before the far-less-flexible August 2 deadline. If a deal is in place by then, lawmakers would barely have time to debate, write, and vote on the agreement.
It’s also worth keeping in mind that cutting it this close is dangerous in its own right. A month ago, Moody’s Investors Service said the nation’s AAA credit rating is at risk of being downgraded by mid-July — before default — if it looks like failure is even a possibility. Would waiting until July 19 to craft a compromise — one that lawmakers may be tempted to oppose — risk serious economic consequences?
And all of this assumes a deal is, in fact, going to happen, which is far from a certainty.
The New York Times reports that the president and House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) met secretly on Sunday in the hopes of advancing the talks, though it’s unclear if they made any progress. The Washington Post noted a tidbit I haven’t seen elsewhere, quoting a Republican aide saying the two sides have already agreed on “as much as $2.3 trillion in potential savings, including more than $300 billion in interest payments averted through lower borrowing.” If true, it would suggest a deal may be within reach, though it would still come down to Republicans’ willingness to accept additional revenue.
There will be a “summit” on Thursday at the White House in the hopes of keeping the process on track.
Tick tock.
Facebook
Twitter
c u n d gulag on July 06, 2011 8:07 AM:
I hope the Secret Service patted Boehner down before they let him go home.
It's one thing to take the President's lunch money, taking WH silverware is another.
And there's nothing I hate saying as much as this - but I have ZERO confidence in Obama's negotiating ability.
None. Sorry!
Ron Byers on July 06, 2011 8:18 AM:
Cund, why no confidence in Obama's negotiating ability. The other day one of my tea party loving brothers was complaining bitterly that Obama tricked the Republicans in the last negotiation into thinking the had cut a lot when when not much was actually cut.
Obama's negotiating ability is pretty good. I am more worried about the Republicans. They seem incapable of compromise, but then again my belief that they are incapabel of compromise could be part of their notiating strategy.
It is best to look at the underlying reality. If no deal is cut a whole lot of billionaires will become millionaires and a lot of millionaires will rejoin the middle class.
Mr. Serf Man on July 06, 2011 8:19 AM:
It is becoming increasingly apparent that the Republicans are willing to crash the economy in order to make Obama look bad. I can't wait for the fair and balanced reporting that will blame the Democrats for not compromising.
To Quote John Stewart
"I give up"
Schtick on July 06, 2011 8:19 AM:
What is Obama going to cave for this time? More tax breaks for all oil companies or just Exxon?
walt on July 06, 2011 8:20 AM:
Obama apparently feels that the public aversion to deficits outweighs economic reality. Both as a political and economic strategy, this appears to be completely wrong. Taking money out of an economy this weak will only serve to weaken it further. This means unemployment will remain high. Framing the issue as a jobs vs deficit problem would have highlighted the public's even greater aversion to joblessness.
I understand Obama's reflexive capitulation style given Republican nihilism and the complete corporate takeover of our political culture. But Republicans have set an ironclad trap for him. They'll get their economic agenda plus a weak economy going in 2012. Guess who will pay the price for their austerity agenda? Yeah, that radical lefty Obama.
c u n d gulag on July 06, 2011 8:25 AM:
Ron,
Yeah, he kept the middle class tax cuts he created - AND the Bush ones.
Look, I know the Republicans didn't get as much as they crowed about in December, but too often, Obama comes into negotiations already having given up his aces. I other words, he starts to negotiate from the middle, which is were one would should only settle on at the end. And so, the Overton Window keeps moving further and further right.
berttheclock on July 06, 2011 8:34 AM:
@Ron Byers, I believe your last sentence could be extended to the NFL and NBA, as well.
However, shame that by "rejoining the middle class" will still leave that very small group a minority. The loss of our middle class is abhorrent. The middle '60s to the early '70s truly were "Those were the days, my friends, we thought they'd never end..."
bdop4 on July 06, 2011 8:37 AM:
I'm with Walt. I can't believe how EVERYONE has bought into this deficit/debt reduction scam, lock stock and barrel.
Yesterday, I was listening to KPFK, the local progressive radio station in LA, and Barbara Lee, one of the most progressive House rep.s around, was telling Tom Hayden that money saved from getting out of the wars should be used for deficit reduction. Couldn't believe it.
JOBS, PEOPLE!! Every spare dollar should be directed towards creating jobs. The only reference to deficit reduction should be pure scorn.
I want an answer to only one question: How does reducing the debt/deficit create any JOBS?!
berttheclock on July 06, 2011 8:43 AM:
@cundgulag,
I, once, knew an attorney who attended a Clinton White House dinner. He told me he had purloined an ash tray and put it into his Louis Vuitton for the flight home from Dulles. However, for some "strange" reason, the x-ray machine "ate" his LV. He was more upset about losing the ash tray and not being able to mention it on his claim form. Some poetic justice there, eh?
stevio on July 06, 2011 8:45 AM:
Obama may not be as shrewd as we'd like but given the way this country has progressed into a stupid electorate that manifested in an Obama presidency only because the GOP really, really screwed them to hell, also have no ability to process how it happened and so merrily reelected the ones that initially screwed them to hell because...because...because what? Exactally. We have become a very stupid clump of people who can't follow anything remotely important to our futures.
It's like the dolts who keep smoking because they don't think cancer will catch them down the road. They don't think or process longer than the next Dancing w/ the Stars installment.
Couple this blank bovine intellectualism with a 24/7/365 propaganda campaign, and pundits willing to call the POTUS a dick followed by laughter from those gathered and you have a country that pretty much is just going through the motions of being a country.
Full 1/2 of those who will be grievously effected by this debt ceiling fiasco can't or won't realize they directly caused it by electing those loonies in the first place.
Third World here we come. All ready with a work force that is complacent with serving hamburgers rather than manufacturing, rage over gas prices while electing people charged with keeping the prices high, and distracted by shinny objects that keep their small lowly informed minds busy with topics designed to keep them that way.
I just lost most of my breakfast...sorry...
Mr. Serf Man on July 06, 2011 9:10 AM:
Stevio - You'll like this one . Ruben Bolling and Tom the Dancing Bug nails it in 13 panels
http://www.gocomics.com/tomthedancingbug/2011/06/17
c u n d gulag on July 06, 2011 9:16 AM:
berttheclock,
Too bad about the ashtray. I wonder if they still have any? Probably. For cigars. And Frenchmen.
AndThenThere'sThat on July 06, 2011 9:35 AM:
I often feel this country's core problems can be traced back to the burgeoning plutocracy. However, stevio reminds me that the real problem is a casual democracy in which half the participants are too fucking stupid to see the most basic cause and effect relationships.
bigtuna on July 06, 2011 9:41 AM:
I just cannot see how, after all their lines in the sand, no new taxes, no new revenues, etc., the reupublicans can agree to new revenue, and come out alive through the uber right wing / tea party / nutcase wing in 2012. Anyone - can you explain how they get out of the corner they have painted themselves into ?
ohhenery on July 06, 2011 9:47 AM:
C'mon dem whizkids. Mesmerize me on the tube with some truth to counter the swiftboat vomitus. You can do it. Dry up those tears. You are loved. Do some goddamned pushups, now.
Josef K on July 06, 2011 9:48 AM:
I think we can agree the President's actions and agenda to date have been sub-optimal, at least for those of us with a clearer head about what's needed. I won't speculate on why he hasn't used the office to its fullest, because I don't know the man and can't see into his head.
But in this context, he does seem to be taking a harder line now, and the public is actually paying attention to who is saying what. Its helped that so many prominent Republicans have stuck both into their mouths and made clear they're not compromising, as does the public noticing how so many of the GOP's freshmen are barking mad.
Does any of this mean the GOP will feel pressured to accept any kind of compromise? Of course not. I've no confidence Boehner nor McConnnell could get the votes even if they took the 83/17 deal from last week this very day. Given the public's ignorance of this subject (something the White House should have addressed from day one, imo), too many constituents are likely telling their congressmen to stay the course and go ahead with crashing the economy.
The silver lining to this? The GOP's inflexibility has been so public and so far from mainstream opinion that there's no question who was responsible this time. Sure, there will be plenty of blame laid on the President (some of it deserved), but the GOP has been front and center here and can't escape this.
Nevertheless, I really do hope some kind of compromise is reached before the deadline on the 19th. Economic chaos, like any kind of chaos, looks like a good option only in the abstract. I've no wish to live through that kind of upheaval, especially if societal order is dragged down as well.
OKDem on July 06, 2011 10:13 AM:
I agree with bigtuna and that is why I suspect July 20th, after Moody's has announced that it will downgrade on the 21st and stocks plunge 5%, the 14th Amendment will be invoked.
Mitch McConnell "You cursed brat! Look what you've done! I'm melting! melting! Oh, what a world! What a world! Who would have thought a good little "Boy" like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness?"
The Teabaggers will start demanding impeachment hearings on the 24th.
Josef K on July 06, 2011 10:42 AM:
From OKDem at 10:13 AM:
The Teabaggers will start demanding impeachment hearings on the 24th.
I find OKDem's entire hypothetical currently the most likely course of action. The White House has already put feelers out concerning 14, so they could just say its taken them this long to satisfy that they're on firm legal ground to invoke it.
It was their last sentence quoted above that actually caught me, my first reaction to it being "Of course they will." It then hit me that, somehow, impeachment has become a 'normal' part of our politics. Even this wholesale insanity with the debt ceiling doesn't seem atypical anymore.
Perhaps the GOP has done more damage to American society than we realize. And make no mistake, they're the ones who're leading the charge; the White House and Democrats are simply going along with it for whatever reason.
emjayay on July 06, 2011 10:42 AM:
Does anyone know the hisory of the idea of voting on a debt ceiling? I read a comments discussion on the meaning of the 14th amendment somewhere (here?) and the arguements for the debt ceiling thing seemed weak and legalistic. The Constitution seems pretty clear, and other post-Civil War amendments have been interpreted as meaning what they say, not just about freed slaves or something.
Of course you can discuss this stuff all day long and it's just interesting intellectual debate. All that counts is the Supreme Court, which will be torn between being pro Repub, pro business, and pro presidential power. Well, maybe pro some other president's power. I guess it's never been questioned legally previously because it was just a pro forma sort of vote before tea baggery.
So why are the Demos/Obama cowering and trying to give Repubs almost everything they want? Why isn't Obama calling it the Reagan Bush Deficit? Why isn't he pointing out that the same Repubs happily voted to raise the debt ceiling as long as it was Bush/Repubs throwing away trillions on stupid shit?
Oh that's right. If Obama even hints at that sort of thing someone might call him a dick and he wouldn't want that sort of thing to happen. At all costs.
Th on July 06, 2011 10:45 AM:
I agree with Bigtuna, also. The summit that needs to be held is the Republicans with the Chamber of Commerce. Anything Obama will sign is, by definition, a capitulation by Republicans as far as the Tea Party is concerned.
Twerpie on July 06, 2011 12:02 PM:
I saw Naomi Klein's The Shock Doctrine last night. A must see. I'm wondering if not raising the debt ceiling is the "shock" that the Republicans and the Chicago boys have been hoping to apply to the USA