The debt-reduction framework is no longer the subject of scuttlebutt and leaks; it’s out. It’s done. It’s a deal. That doesn’t mean passage is a sure thing — nothing in this process is ever a sure thing — but the relevant players are on board.
The final hurdle was Speaker Boehner, who fought to lower the ratio on the trigger, away from a 50-50 split on the trigger we talked about earlier. As it turns out, Boehner lost that fight, and the White House told him there would be movement on this point, and the Speaker conceded the point. (He’d already won on so many other points, this was a minor setback.)
Here’s President Obama’s four-minute statement the briefing room, presenting the framework, and conceding this isn’t the deal he would have preferred.
And here (pdf), by the way, is the presentation Boehner made available to his caucus after endorsing the agreement. The Speaker clearly doesn’t love the plan, but in a hilarious twist, Boehner said failing to pass it would lead to a “job-killing default.” That would be the same default Boehner has been willing to pursue for the last several months.
The odds of passage in the Senate are much higher, though it’s unclear when that vote might occur and/or whether the Senate will wait for the House to act. The House remains a tougher lift, where a left-right coalition will make getting a majority very challenging.
I’ll have plenty of coverage and analysis starting in the morning. For now, I’m calling it a night and opening the floor for some discussion.
Update: To clarify something important, Boehner’s presentation gives the impression that new revenue is impossible under the bipartisan congressional commission. That’s false; new revenue is possible and will be a key goal of Democratic members. Whether the revenue is likely or not is a separate question, but for those who saw that and were concerned, Boehner’s claim is just factually wrong.
Second Update: The White House has released a relatively detailed fact sheet on the debt-reduction framework, intended, at least in part, to reassure progressive critics of the plan.
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