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On Fox News Sunday, Karl Rove repeated a lot of economic nonsense we’ve heard before, but the appearance struck me as more annoying that most.
Fox figures have been relentless in insisting that the economic stimulus failed — even though experts agree that it boosted GDP and employment. Moreover, numerous economists “think the economy would be worse” today without it.
But on Fox Broadcasting’s Fox News Sunday, Fox News contributor Karl Rove claimed that President Obama’s policies have “utterly failed” and that when he “passed the stimulus bill, he said unemployment would be 6 percent.” Rove also claimed that “each time [Obama has] sort of gotten around to tossing an idea out on the table, it has included only more spending, more deficit [and] more debt.”
Again, this isn’t exactly new. On the contrary, it’s boilerplate GOP rhetoric.
But there’s just something about Rove lecturing on this that rankles. The stimulus ended the freefall Obama inherited from … Rove’s White House. There’s a jobs crisis that the president inherited from … Rove’s White House. Rove is complaining about “more debt,” after Obama inherited a $1.3 trillion deficit and a fiscal disaster from … Rove’s White House.
What we have here is an arsonist whining on national television about the speed with which the fire chief is putting out the arsonist’s own fire. Worse, he’s lying about all of the relevant details while making the complaint.
What’s more, Rove’s little tantrum comes on the heels of reports that President Obama inherited an economic catastrophe from Rove’s team that was even worse than we realized at the time. Ryan Avent recently had an important piece on this, explaining that “the situation was far more dire than anyone in the administration or in Congress supposed.”
Output in the third and fourth quarters fell by 3.7% and 8.9%, respectively, not at 0.5% and 3.8% as believed at the time. Employment was also falling much faster than estimated. Some 820,000 jobs were lost in January, rather than the 598,000 then reported. In the three months prior to the passage of stimulus, the economy cut loose 2.2m workers, not 1.8m. In January, total employment was already 1m workers below the level shown in the official data.
We can’t know exactly how things would have played out in a world in which key policymakers had better data. If the true scope of the economic disaster in the fourth quarter had been clear, however, it seems certain that Ms Romer’s models would have shown a need for more stimulus, that the White House would have agreed to push for more (and perhaps a lot more), and that Congress would have been much more receptive to a bigger bill. A drop of 8.9% does seem much more terrifying, after all, than a 3.8% decline. Bigger stimulus would have reduced the economic deterioration in subsequent months. The Fed might also have been more aggressive.
It’s important to emphasize, in case this isn’t obvious, that the numbers officials were working with weren’t just off by a little. The Obama administration was told that in the quarter leading up to the president’s inauguration, the economy shrank by 3.8%. To be sure, that would be an awful number showing an economy in deep trouble.
But with the benefit of hindsight and revised data, we now know the economy actually shrank over those three months by 8.9%. If 3.8% contraction is a disaster, 8.9% is a catastrophe.
And all of this was occurring before President Obama even raised his hand to take the oath of office. This was the fire his Republican predecessor left for him to put out.
If Rove wants to apologize to the nation for his role in leaving this mess, I’m sure the White House would be gracious. But in the meantime, maybe he should keep his mouth shut, grab a mop, and play a more constructive role in helping address the crises he helped create.
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stormskies on August 22, 2011 10:16 AM:
once again these delusional buffoons inhabit a fact free universe .. their psychological security is dependent on living in an interlocking delusional universe that can not be penetrated by facts ......
Danp on August 22, 2011 10:18 AM:
We can’t know exactly how things would have played out in a world in which key policymakers had better data.
Or how things would have turned out in a number of areas were it not for burrowing.
nemisten on August 22, 2011 10:21 AM:
Thinking -- much less expecting -- Rove will do anything constructive is pretty laughable.
The ONLY thing he does is lie, lie, and lie about his atrocities and then project them onto others.
zandru on August 22, 2011 10:21 AM:
Rove Won't 'Keep his Mouth Shut'"
... and neither should we. Use these figures that Mr. Benen has so thoughtfully provided, get additional information by following the links, and take it to the water cooler, the Starbux, your Facebook page, your tweeter. It's what they used to call a "whispering campaign" - and they work.
Don't sit back and assume "the Democrats" will do it. To a far greater extent than the Republican Party, the Democrats depend ON YOU.
DAY on August 22, 2011 10:24 AM:
A suspicious mind might wonder if, during the middle of the second term, Rove & Co. were aware of the awful mess they had made.
And, knowing that a Democrat win was inevitable, they spent the next two years doing everything possible to further destroy the economy. So that whoever won the White House, would be sorry they ran. And would be a one term president, with Republicans waltzing back into power.
I have a suspicious mind.
Josef K on August 22, 2011 10:35 AM:
The question that should be put to Rove and company any time they trot out this claptrap, which I can almost guarantee will shut them up:
"What's the weather like on Planet Rove/Bachmann/Perry/etc.? It sure sounds better than here on planet Earth."
Simple, direct, and makes it clear they're full of shite. Why, if we're lucky, they'll just faint dead away.
walt on August 22, 2011 10:41 AM:
Rove does what any ace political tactician does - smear the other side and exculpate his own. Given our current political reality, it's almost a miracle we're not shooting each other. We're having a civil war with sleazebags and cretins, so it's pointless to complain about their behavior. It's as if we're in the middle of a swamp standing on principle while alligators chomp on our feet.
I sometimes wish our politics were more like the Oxford Debating Society. Alas, we live in a fallen world. This is our problem as liberals: we want something that has never been and never will be. A more appropriate line of inquiry: where are our Roves?
apmat on August 22, 2011 10:56 AM:
Have you updated your "employment graphs" that show the timeline of the number of jobs lost/gained under the Bush and Obama administrations?
Neil B on August 22, 2011 11:09 AM:
Part of what went wrong, and we can't blame it all on Rove and crew:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-21/wall-street-aristocracy-got-1-2-trillion-in-fed-s-secret-loans.html
FRP on August 22, 2011 11:26 AM:
The idea that a Democrat stole our presidency is appalling , a slap in the face of the Constitution , George Washington , and worser , the loss of prestige Americans now suffer on the international stage because of permitting a stolen presidency .
The idea that Obama chose to be Black is almost as unsettling as he if he chose to be gay . Not that it is clear , or anyone is saying , Obama is gay , but if he is well that is just worser .
The idea that Obama is not a white Republican is not negotiable . These are affronts to any thoughtful and considerate white Republican , and that Obama doesn't apologize for it just makes it worser .
Now the nonsense that Rove or any other brave , patriotic American has been extreme in the defense of liberty , as if . Nosirree , no , no , no . It is plainly manly and patriotic . Let's remind again that moderation in the pursuit of justice is not a virtue but a kraven chickenly posture chosen by frankly , chickens .
Is it worser to be Democrat or a Chicken ? Six of one half a dozen of ta other . Still we will talk to these chickens , and we get no respect , none ! , infuriating .
If Obama would resign and apologize for stealing the Presidency , I think we could forgive him for being a gay , Islamofacist , scary black gay person .
This is a simple case . As mild mannered Republicans , presenting an innocuous list of intolerable offenses plainly celebrated by no good Democrats . Continuing as an open handed gesture of good will and practical diplomacy , the acts of good folks who would rather die than admit weakness or fault , it is to be hoped that before Obama destroys the country he will resign . By gum , he would make more friends in that simple act , than if he gave a new Pontiac twice a day to every deserving registered Republican .
I hope this helps ...
ckelly on August 22, 2011 11:42 AM:
But in the meantime, maybe [Rove] should keep his mouth shut, grab a mop, and play a more constructive role
Hell, I'd be happy if Rove would simply put down the gas can and box of matches.
DisgustedWithItAll on August 22, 2011 11:44 AM:
What discombobulates and irritates me the most is that Democrats have the truth on their side. All that need be done is ram the truth down the Republicans and country's throat.
Just fucking do it, damn it.
yellowdog on August 22, 2011 11:44 AM:
The economic reality was far worse than the numbers at the time suggested. The immediate question is, why were the numbers off-base?
One of the hallmarks of the Bush Administration was its incompetence. It mucked around in all sorts of things for political reasons, leaving professionals and people with policy expertise gasping in frustration. Consider Valerie Plame or the U.S. Attorneys. These were skilled, professional people trying to do their jobs. In agency after agency, Bush put unskilled people like Michael Brown in charge--political hacks who would make Warren Harding blush. He put anti-government ideologues deep into the management of government. He ignored the Hatch Act. He found cronies like Alberto Gonzales who had some experience, but he lifted them to positions far above their talents. Add to that a daily litany of government-is-bad, and you have a demoralized and mismanaged federal government.
I can only wonder if the people responsible for collecting and analyzing basic economic data were managed by crooks or cronies or if their offices had their funding cut so much they could not do their jobs properly. The article linked above does not explain why the economic data was so bad, but the question is rich with possibility.
The numbers could have been skewed on purpose, but I think poor technical skill is a more likely answer. I wonder if we will ever know...
ckelly on August 22, 2011 11:49 AM:
they spent the next two years doing everything possible to further destroy the economy. ...
I have a suspicious mind.
Since the Republicans have spent the past 2 1/2 years doing everything possible to destroy the economy and by extension Obama, I'd say your suspicions are not too far on the fringe.
Kane on August 22, 2011 11:55 AM:
Imagine what our political culture might be today and where we might be as a nation if the media had done its job years ago in exposing Rove and his political methods, rather than inflating his image and giving him undeserved credibility.
For all the damage that this man has brought on the country directly and indirectly, it boggles the mind that he continues to be given media attention and that he is allowed to have sway on our politics.
Barrick Arnold on August 22, 2011 12:22 PM:
Quick technical detail here: when folks report that GDP is contracting at a certain rate, it really means that the economy is on-track to hit that rate on an annual basis. So, it's not like the economy shrank 8.9% in three months; that would be a catastrophe beyond imagination. What the reports are really saying is that if the economy was performing at that rate for the whole year, then we would see an 8.9% decrease in GDP.
Normally that's a small detail, but when we're talking about such big numbers, precision is vital.
Of course, those numbers are still dreadful.
Bill Harshaw on August 22, 2011 1:54 PM:
A side issue, but I wonder if Obama's economists were warning that the data might be off. I think I've seen an observation that the statistics tend to be too optimistic at the start of a recession, which would have been well for Obama's team to remember.
berlins on August 22, 2011 7:19 PM:
Just 6% of the stimulus went to infrastructure spending. A whole lot went to unions to "keep jobs" and build up a war chest for election 2012. The stimulus could have worked but Obama and the dems just can't help themselves. And if the debt that Bush built up wasn't enough, Obama tripled it and this is what we get. Come on, we are spending too much.
Doug on August 22, 2011 10:28 PM:
berlin, did you bother to check WHY such a low percentage (assuming it's even correct) of the stimulus went to infrastructure spending? It couldn't have been because Republican governors such as, among others, Pawlenty, Kasich, Daniels and Perry used the stimulus money to balance their state budgets, hmmm?
NO union received money from the stimulus, period.
You'll get no argument from me that the stimulus might have worked, IF 1/3 of it hadn't been nearly useless tax cuts, placed in the legislation to appease Republicans - who then voted against it.
As for "Obama tripling Bush's debt", you must be high! A major reason for the seemingly high increase in the deficit under President Obama is that he, unlike Bush, includes ALL Federal expenditures in ONE budget. GWB had the shyster's trick of keeping expenditures for Iraq and Afghanistan in a "supplemental" budget and never the twain did meet.
In other words, for five years, Mr. Bush was running deficits $300-500 billion greater than appeared in the "budget". If you were an accountant and did that, you'd lose your accreditation and possibly go to jail.
So far GWB's suffered the first and there's always hope for the second...
Lightning Joe on August 23, 2011 10:44 AM:
AND, we are still waiting for Rove to show up in Congress, in response to the SUMMONS he received from them and has IGNORED ever since (NO, we HAVEN'T forgotten his blithe refusal to observe his legal obligations there, OR Congress's so-far refusal to hold him in Contempt of Congress thereby).
When he decides he DOES want to be a citizen after all, maybe then I'll start listening to his opinions.