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The headline on the Washington Post’s “The Fix” column from Chris Cillizza and Aaron Blake this morning reads, “The New York special election: Will Democrats panic?” The piece tells readers:
In the wake of Rep.-elect Bob Turner’s (R) upset victory in the special election in New York’s 9th district on Tuesday night, the prevailing question among Democrats will almost certainly be: Is it time to push the panic button?
About four months ago, when Democrats won a special election in upstate New York in a district long held by Republicans, Cillizza and Blake told readers:
One special election almost 18 months before the next general election does not a trend make, but it’s hard to imagine that House GOPers who voted for the Ryan budget didn’t wake up a little more nervous today than they did yesterday.
Right. Dems lose a race they expected to win, and the question is whether they’ll “push the panic button.” Republicans lose a race they expected to win, and House GOP members probably feel “a little more nervous.”
I’m not quite sure what it would look like if congressional Democrats did “push the panic button.” They’re already open to compromise and already eager to work on the issues voters care about most. How would panic translate into action? They’d stop trying to pass a jobs bill?
Regardless, the difference between how the parties handle setbacks continues to fascinate me. Consider some recent history.
* In 1998, voters were unimpressed, to put it mildly, with the Republican crusade against Bill Clinton. In the midterms, voters sent a message — in a historical rarity, the party that controlled the White House gained congressional seats in the sixth year of a presidency. It was a stinging rebuke of the GOP and its excesses. Did Republicans “push the panic button”? No, they impeached the president anyway during the lame-duck session.
* In 2006, voters were widely dissatisfied with the war in Iraq, and wanted to see a withdrawal. In the midterms, the Republican majority didn’t just suffer setbacks; they lost both the House and Senate. It was an overwhelming rejection of GOP rule. Did congressional Republicans “push the panic button”? No, they didn’t change strategies at all.
* In May 2008, Democrats won U.S. House special elections in Louisiana and Mississippi, two of the nation’s “reddest” states. Did Republicans “push the panic button”? No, they didn’t change strategies at all.
* In 2008, Democrats took the White House and expanded their congressional majorities to heights unseen in a generation. After years of witnessing abject failure, the electorate wanted nothing to do with the GOP. Did Republicans “push the panic button”? No, they changed literally nothing about their agenda, ideas, ideology, rhetoric, tone, attitude, or approach to politics.
* Between March 2009 to May 2010, Democrats won seven consecutive U.S. House special elections, including flipping one district Republicans had held for more than a century. Did Republicans “push the panic button”? No, they didn’t change strategies at all.
The difference in the way the two parties handle setbacks is hard to miss. Nothing conveys weakness like running for the hills at the first sign of trouble.
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FRP on September 14, 2011 8:42 AM:
Dr Benen Feelgood's forensics are simply the best .
If anything it is the gentle reminder that the only thing certain are Partisan Insanity and Death .
Aye yi yi yi yi ....
Darsan54 on September 14, 2011 8:43 AM:
You gotta give credit where it's due. Republicans are just like the Borg; hive mind and working in unison. This is something the journalists seem to always miss. They keep talking about "cracks" in the ranks, but when it gets to the bottom line they all vote together every time.
I suspect it says more about journalistic wishing in order to build a narrative and write stories than objective reporting.
c u n d gulag on September 14, 2011 8:47 AM:
I don't want Democrats to hit "the panic button.'
I want them to hit "the wake up and realize how this political game is played" button.
FIGHT, NOT FLIGHT!!!
The only change in the Republicans over the last 30 years is that they've moved further and further right - dramatically so.
And how have the Democrats responded?
By moving to the right, right along with them.
It's Main Street, stupid!
Reublicans know how to make the people on Main Street afraid of any number of things, so that they vote for them.
What's the Democrats reponse to Main Street been, and going to be?
Wake me up when you find out.
Hedda Peraz on September 14, 2011 8:52 AM:
Republicans stay on message.
Democrats don't have one.
matt w on September 14, 2011 8:53 AM:
But the difference in these two articles doesn't tell us anything about how the parties react to setbacks. It tells us about how the Washington Insiders write about the parties. It's Cilizza and Blake's choice to portray the Democrats as panicky and the Republicans as maybe a little nervous, because they think of the Democrats as weak. They'd write the same thing no matter what the facts were.
massappeal on September 14, 2011 8:53 AM:
Is it time for Democrats to hit the panic button?
No! It's time to Pass. This. Bill.
Millstream Pigworker on September 14, 2011 8:59 AM:
Sigh. Once again compliant media tools like Cillizza frame an issue/event through a Republican leaning perspective. This is of course our biggest obstacle. If our journalistic establishment was even remotely interested in objective truth-telling, the R's would be justly reviled as the liars and criminals that they are. But then Chris and Dana and their sell-out pals might not get invited to Ed Rogers' next cocktail shindig and, Heaven forfend, we wouldn't want that!
Danp on September 14, 2011 9:01 AM:
The difference in the way the two parties handle setbacks is hard to miss
Where are the examples of how Dems react to setbacks? Or are we just accepting Chris Cillizza's question as evidence.
ladyhawke on September 14, 2011 9:13 AM:
A Guide to Cutting Through Special-Election Spin
By NATE SILVER
I doubt that there was any district in the country (in 2008), perhaps outside a few remnants of the “Solid South,” where so many enrolled Democrats voted against Mr. Obama.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/13/a-guide-to-cutting-through-special-election-spin/
T2 on September 14, 2011 9:22 AM:
the GOP doesn't change "strategies" because they are more a company run by a few Super Rich Conservatives than a political party along the lines of the Democratic Party.
Their decisions are made by a very few hard line guys then passed down to be executed by underlings. Dems are a different breed....herding cats is a good description. Make a loud noise in a room full of cats and they'll all run in different directions, but with the same general purpose (flee). Make a noise in a room full of right wingers and they'll all look up to find out which way to run, then all go that way regardless.
chi res on September 14, 2011 9:28 AM:
There you go again, Steve, pretending that Cillizza has something interesting to say.
Basilisc on September 14, 2011 9:30 AM:
"Where are the examples of how Dems react to setbacks?"
Let's see:
In 2000 Republicans won the presidency despite a popular vote minority and an outrageous assault on voting rights in Florida. Democrats meekly agreed to the (first) irresponsible Bush tax cuts and the 2002 drive to war.
In 2002 Republicans, bucking historical trends, won a midterm election thanks to shameless demagoguery and warmongering. Democrats meekly agreed to the (second) irresponsible Bush tax cuts and the Iraq war itself, and steadfastly ignored growing evidence of torture, wiretapping, corruption, and other miscarriages of justice.
In 2004, Republicans narrowly held on to the presidency thanks to shameless demagoguery and warmongering. Then they started dismantling Social Security. Democrats finally woke up and fought back. Voters rewarded them with victory in 2006.
In January 2010 Republicans won a surprise victory in the Mass Senate election. Democrats were ready to throw in the towel.
In November 2010 Republicans retook the House and almost retook the Senate. Democrats, led by Obama, did throw in the towel.
I think the record supports Steve's thesis pretty convincingly.
slappy magoo on September 14, 2011 10:03 AM:
Dems have a history of wimping out, thus people are expecting Dems to wimp out. It'd be nice for this to change, something approximately 0% of Democrats are holding their breath in the hopes this will happen.
Prove us wrong, cowards.
hornblower on September 14, 2011 10:06 AM:
This special election was sadly about gay marriage and support for Israel. While the Democratic candidate was Jewish he did not have the Orthodox vote. For reasons of their own, old pols like Ed Koch pushed for the Republican. While the Democrat ran well in Queens, Brooklyn was another story. It is really sad that Americans base their votes on such issues. The turnout was relatively low and the district which is 71% white will be broken up in the next re-districting.
"Fair and Balanced" Dave on September 14, 2011 11:46 AM:
I think the difference is in strategy. The Repulicans apparently feel the key to electoral success is appealing to their base.
The Democrats apparently think the key to their success is to disregard their base and try to appeal to "swing voters".
The result has been both parties shifting to the right.
SYSPROG on September 14, 2011 12:52 PM:
WOW Steve...OK, things get bad and the GOP stays in the hive mentality. WHAT DO THE DEMS DO? You seem to imply 'they push the panic button.' Where are the paragraphs explaining THAT? No I think (of course, I'm not a pundit) that NY-9 KNOWS they are being re-districted out of existence and sent a message to the DEMOCRATS. Get cohesive or we won't vote. THIS is your year. With the jobs plan WHERE THE F* are the Dems? Obama is out there alone getting hammered by the GOP as well as the nimrods from FDL and HPost. REALLY? And then Cillizza just follows along...and apparently, so do YOU. C'mon.
Mary on September 14, 2011 3:37 PM:
A good part of the problem is with the media, as many other comments mention. When it doesn't matter what the Dems do, the media still puts out the same old, same old media talking points that they have used forever.
I believe that the Dems need to challenge the media pundits and force them to be more honest. If they challenge the media and force retractions, then hit the Repubs in the same way!
And, the Dems need to have each other's backs! That is for both elected officials, activists and the general Dem public! These same people also need to challenge the 'activists' who only pretend to be Democrats but actually have nothing good to say about any Democrat. The 'pretend' Dems need to go find another party. They should not be ignored, they should be challenged every day.