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The polls were right. As expected, Republicans had a very good night, easily winning two congressional special elections in districts Democrats hoped to compete in. In Nevada’s 2nd, Republican Mark Amodei cruised to an easy, 22-point win over Democrat Kate Marshall, and in New York’s 9th, Republican Bob Turner won by eight over Democrat David Weprin.
There are plenty of angles to consider to the results. We could talk about the fact that Weprin just wasn’t a good candidate. We might mention that New York’s 9th isn’t quite as “blue” as advertised, the race had some unique local issues, and the district will likely be eliminated through redistricting anyway. We could explore just how conservative Nevada’s 2nd really is, and why it was always probably a pipe dream for Dems anyway.
And while all of those angles matter, let’s instead put all of that aside and talk about special elections in a larger context. Because, after all, the main question the political world seems to be asking this morning is whether the results portend larger trouble for Democrats in general, and President Obama specifically.
Jonathan Bernstein had a sharp item on this yesterday.
Republicans, and some neutral commentators, are already spinning that outcome as proof that Democrats will have a tough time next year. In reality, you can safely ignore everything you hear about What It All Means and What It Tells Us About 2012.
Certainly, the electoral landscape — as reflected in these races — would be difference if Barack Obama’s approval ratings were in the low 60s instead of the low 40s. But we don’t need special elections to tell us that. As for predicting the future, it’s well-established that special elections don’t do that (although partisans and some reporters seem to have very short memories). […]
So do pay attention to these two special elections. Just don’t expect them to tell us what the American people think of Barack Obama — national polls do that job much better. And don’t expect them to tell us anything about November 2012. For that, we’ll just have to wait.
Let’s flesh this out a bit, looking at the last few cycles. In the 109th Congress (2005 and 2006), going into the November 2006 midterms, there were four U.S. House special elections — Republicans won three, Democrats won one, and neither party flipped any seats. Did this offer hints about the Democratic wave that would sweep the GOP out of their majorities in both chambers? Obviously not.
In the 110th Congress (2007 and 2008), going into Election Day in November 2008, there were 12 U.S. House special elections — Republicans won four, Democrats won eight, and Dems successfully turned three “red” seats “blue.” Were these Democratic gains an “omen” of things to come? Maybe! It’s worth noting, though, that the Dem wins came much closer to the ‘08 elections (rather than the summer before, which is where we are now).
And in the 111th Congress (2009 and 2010), going into the 2010 midterms, there were 10 U.S. House special elections — Republicans won two, Democrats won eight, and each party flipped one district previously held by the other party. Of particular interest, from March ‘09 to May ‘10, Dems won seven straight special elections, even flipping one district Republicans had held for more than a century. Did this offer evidence of the burgeoning Republican wave? Not even a little.
So far this year, there have been four U.S. House special elections — Republicans have won two, Democrats have won two, and each have flipped a seat previously held by the other party. What does this tell us about the 2012 elections? Ask me again a year from now.
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c u n d gulag on September 14, 2011 8:15 AM:
Like in the MA Senate race, the Democrats put up on old party apparatchik on the ballot instead of someone new and exciting.
I know that district in NYC, I lived near it for a couple of years.
There is a large Jewish population, which not only accounted for Weiner's wins (thought that was not the exclusive reason, by any means), but also his hard-line stance on Israel.
Turner made what sometimes appears to be Obama's ambivalence towards Israel front and center in his fear and loathing campaign, and Weprin didn't counter properly or energetically.
The lesson we ought to learn from this is - MORE BETTER DEMOCRATS!
Stop the parade of old school apparatchiks running for office.
We need Democrats tied to Main Street, not Wall Street!!!
sick-n-effn-tired. on September 14, 2011 8:20 AM:
Moral : If you put up weak candidates they lose.
Did anyone catch Rachel Maddow's segment last night on Republicanland? http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26315908/#44511553
She nailed it . How do you deal with a party that just makes shit up ? That has a moderator who fails to point out any of this. That cheers executions and people dying because they have no insurance? This country is doomed .
Unstable Isotope on September 14, 2011 8:24 AM:
But, but I already had the matches out ready to set my hair on fire. The lesson I see is that a candidate chosen by party leaders many times isn't the best candidate. I know party officials hate primaries but perhaps they'd benefit a little more?
I can't dredge up much caring for NY-09 since it's mostly disappearing anyway. The only regret I have about the race is that the Republican won on the fear & loathing front so I expect we'll see a lot more of this next year.
Extreme Moderate on September 14, 2011 8:35 AM:
Steve - read the voter comments as reported by the NYT today. If they don't scare Democrats, they should. Voters are quoted as wanting to "send a message to washington" - even though they voted for a Republican who is probably going to try to mindlessly cut social safety net programs in favor of more austerity that will make the economic picture worse. They want someone to "do something", and cutting government spending /living within our means, reforming regulations and cutting taxes are all simple, easy to understand tangible deliverables. They make intuitive sense to your average voter. They may not produce results but they are seen to be working towards a goal. We can argue whether or not this is voodoo economics (for the record, I certainly think it is) but the low information voter doesn't understand and doesn't care. They want action and this is what the GoP is promising - in simple, common sense (at least from there perspective) terms.
The electorate is holding Obama accountable and ignoring the Republican obstructionism and madness you've pointed out in many posts. That fundamental disconnect - the shooting yourself in the foot problem, and yes people seem to be stupid enough to do this - has to be addressed by the Democrats. What I don't understand is why they haven't been louder in calling the Republicans out and why they've been so tepid in support of the President's job act...Dems must hang together because they will surely hang separately...
DAY on September 14, 2011 8:37 AM:
Yes, I caught Maddow's piece last night- and posted a comment there this AM.
About the old Mark Twain quip, how much his old man had learned? And I said, I'm 70, and am amazed at how ignorant about EVERYTHING the public has become, since I was a lad. . .
Are we doomed to follow the Romans into oblivion? Like them, is there lead in our food and water?
Republicans, I think, are infected with mercury, a-la the Mad Hatter.
-too many obscure references here?
sick-n-effn-tired. on September 14, 2011 9:09 AM:
Day ; I'm 60 and glad I'm old . This country is surly going the way of the Romans . To many foreign wars and an empire stretched too far. More money spent on arms and the military than the rest of the world combined . I just hope I can hang on.
June on September 14, 2011 9:43 AM:
@Extreme Moderate -- good points. I have lately come to the conclusion that Democrats have to give up the idea that voters are smarter than we think, and therefore, have to figure out a way to get through to an electorate that prefers deliberate ignorance over facts.
Schtick on September 14, 2011 1:03 PM:
This shows that the tealiban is STILL using 9/11 to fear people into voting against their own benefits because they don't want "those" people to get anything. I don't even think they know who "those" people are.
The tealiban is winning when the people in the audience cheers executions and someone dying because they have no money or health insurance. I wonder if they would be so eager to cheer if it was a member of their family.
This has been all brought about by the tealiban and their "pro-life" crap, "family values" crap, all the while waving their bible around spewing their "Christian" views.
This freakin country is doomed.
I wish crapcha was doomed. It really sucks today.