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Some polls matter more than others. In Iowa, the Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll is widely considered the gold standard for Hawkeye State polling, and therefore gets considerably more attention than other surveys in the state.
And while conditions are likely to change, possibly more than once over the next nine weeks, it looks like Herman Cain and Mitt Romney are the dominant candidates.
Former business executives Herman Cain and Mitt Romney lead the Republican field in Iowa in an election cycle in which likely GOP caucusgoers favor business experience over elective experience as a qualification for the presidency.
The other contenders, despite their focus on the Hawkeye State, trail 10 percentage points or more.
The power of Cain’s likability has vaulted him to the top of The Des Moines Register’s new Iowa Poll, with 23 percent of likely caucusgoers saying he is their first choice. The durable Romney, on part two of his presidential quest, coasts in with 22 percent.
Ron Paul was a distant third with 12%, and was the only other candidate to reach double digits. Michele Bachmann, once considered the favorite in Iowa, was fourth with 8%, followed by Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich tied at 7% each. Rick Santorum was seventh with 5% support.
Of particular interest was the kind of support the top two candidates are receiving; “The former Massachusetts governor earns the support of just 10 percent of those who say they definitely plan to vote in the caucuses (Cain is at 27 percent). And Cain dominates Romney among those who identify themselves as very conservative, by more than 3 to 1.”
Given the nature of the caucus process, Cain’s more rabid supporters put him in a much better position, if it continues.
The Romney campaign’s spin overnight was that Romney hasn’t really been campaigning in Iowa, so the fact that he’s faring so well is great news. While there’s some truth to that, the spin has a key flaw: Cain has campaigned in Iowa even less than Romney, and Cain is now in the lead.
Of course, that leads to a series of other questions, most notably, is the nature of the campaign process — online activism, Fox News’ dominant role in the GOP, etc. — changing to such an extent that candidates can now excel in a state without bothering to spend a lot of time there?
It also leads one to wonder, might Cain actually win in Iowa if he made a credible effort?
Also note, Romney’s slow-but-steady strategy isn’t consolidating support — he’s actually lost a couple of points in Iowa since the mid-summer. For all the talk about inevitability and strong debate performances, Romney just hasn’t been able to expand his base of support at all.
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DAY on October 30, 2011 9:16 AM:
What most of the "Professional Pundits" constantly overlook, is that Cain is NOT running for president!
He has no ground teams working IA, FL, NH, SC. That means he has chance of winning. He just has that "mavericky" patina that all the pissed-off voters love. As evidence I give you Sarah "rogue" Palin.
daveminnj on October 30, 2011 9:19 AM:
"Of course, It also leads one to wonder, might Cain actually win in Iowa if he made a credible effort?"
actually, i think staying scarce is Cain's only chance. pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.
Danp on October 30, 2011 9:22 AM:
It also leads one to wonder, might Cain actually win in Iowa if he made a credible effort?
This is the Giuliani Syndrome at work. The more they know, the less they like.
Michele Bachmann, once considered the favorite in Iowa, was fourth with 8%,
The fried butter crowd sure is fickle.
Those who think Romney can win in a general election are banking on the idea that an anti-Obama strategy will work, even with no solutions or positive expectations.
berttheclock on October 30, 2011 9:24 AM:
"former business executives, Cain and Romney"
When, will the press acknowledge that, yes, Cain was a former exec, but, for several years and currently, he has been and is a lobbyist for Americans for Prosperity, a Koch Brothers funded lobbying group? In fact, his cigarette smoking buddy and campaign manager, was the head of Americans for Prosperity, Wisconsin. They bonded on trips around the country for AforP lobbying for whatever their bosses, the Koch brothers, wanted them to shill. However, as business men, Romney and Cain have much in common. They, both, have put employees out of work. Cain closed somewhere around 500 Godfather stores for Pillsbury and Romney eliminated many jobs after his venture capital group took over their companies. They do know how to add to the unemployment rolls.
c u n d gulag on October 30, 2011 9:25 AM:
This might be slightly OT - but, maybe before the election in 2016, the Candidates from both parties might say to the MSM, "Hey, the first primary isn't until January of 2016, so well start debating right around then. Enough is too much, already."
It seems that all of this early debating amongst the Republicans has exposed EVERY flaw in a horribly flawed menagerie of candidates.
I mean, I don't think hookers go out until it's dark so that you can use your imagination.
Because in the light of day, she doesn't look like Julia Roberts, and he like Mathew McConaughey - she looks like a crack addicted Nancy Reagan, and he looks like a Don Knotts who's so drugged out, it looks like he shaved with a waffle iron.
berttheclock on October 30, 2011 9:33 AM:
er, cundgulag, has not Perry already said that?
However, both Cain and Romney do know how to Un-create jobs.
Danp on October 30, 2011 9:35 AM:
"Hey, the first primary isn't until January of 2016, so well start debating right around then.
I'd love to see the poll that shows who is watching these debates. If I were a Republican, they would give me agita. As a Dem, they're more like a reality show, where conflict leads to the exhiliration of schadenfreude.
berttheclock on October 30, 2011 9:43 AM:
I think of them as more of a Sondheim musical where, as the camera opens on the group, you hear, "Isn't it rich......" playing. Yes, indeed, the Clowns are already here.
daveminnj on October 30, 2011 9:49 AM:
"I mean, I don't think hookers go out until it's dark so that you can use your imagination."
depends on supply and demand. there are so many republican whores right now, they can't afford to let the
competition get first licks.
DK on October 30, 2011 9:59 AM:
Berttheclock @ 9:33,
Uncreate jobs? That could be a future debate zinger for team Obama. Better copyright it.
On another note, I think we ought to be cheering for Cain to win the nomination. As the Tea Party favorite, giving him the nomination would be the most certain way to accelerate the end of the Tea Party.
c u n d gulag on October 30, 2011 10:22 AM:
bert,
Ooops! You're right.
Daveminnj,
LOL!
berttheclock on October 30, 2011 10:30 AM:
Yeah, cundgulag, but, that was before he flipped back as noted in the newest thread. Something about those former Yell leaders and cheerleaders, Perry at A&M and Shrub at the Andover academy, they know more about back flips than they do about debates.
g on October 30, 2011 12:57 PM:
It also leads one to wonder, might Cain actually win in Iowa if he made a credible effort?
There's a lot of time between now and the primary. Cain's such a loose cannon it's hard to predict how he'll fare over the next three months.
agnes bee on October 30, 2011 1:52 PM:
Does the GOP caucus follow the same rules as the Dems, whereby people give their 2nd choice if their chosen candidate doesn't reach a minimum threshold of support?
If so, expect a shocker in Iowa, whereby Cain trounces Romney when the Perry, Paul, Bachmann, Santorum, Gingrich votes all go to him.