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On Sunday, Senate Minority Whip Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.), a day after saying taxes shouldn’t go up, said he’d like to see all American workers face a tax hike in 2012. Asked specifically about whether he’s support an extension of the payroll tax cut for another year, the far-right Arizonan said Republicans “don’t think that is a good way” to help the economy.
Now, I’m pretty skeptical about whether Republicans are sincere about improving the economy, but if Kyl is willing to take efficacy, evidence, facts, and reason seriously, I have some news he’ll want to consider.
Senate Democrats flagged this clip of Barclays’ Michael Pond, a leading analyst at one of the financial industry’s top firms, reflecting yesterday on what we can expect from the U.S. economy if Congress balks at a payroll cut extension, effectively raising taxes on every American in the workforce.
For those who can’t watch clips online, Pond believes first quarter GDP growth in 2012 will drop from 2.5% to 1%, adding that the payroll break is “worth around $250 billion to the economy.”
Greg Sargent’s reaction was spot on: “What if a top analyst at a major financial firm predicted that failure to pass the payroll tax cut extension would lead to a big drop in that firm’s growth forecast? Would that impact the debate at all?”
It certainly should, right?
In fairness, I should note that Pond is a leading analyst, but other experts are making other projections. Macroeconomic Advisers, for example, believes the end of the payroll tax break would cut .5% from the GDP and cost the economy 400,000 jobs. That’s awful, but Pond believes the effects would be even worse.
The point, though, is that there’s an economic consensus that allowing this tax cut to expire would be a very bad idea, delivering a serious blow to the economy at a terrible time.
The questions for Republicans are pretty straightforward: (1) Why would the GOP support raising workers’ taxes right now? and (2) Given a choice between helping the economy and sabotaging it, which do Republicans prefer?
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Burr Deming on November 29, 2011 2:09 PM:
Republicans in Congress have a higher priority in providing what the public actually needs.
c u n d gulag on November 29, 2011 2:13 PM:
I'm a leftie hitter, so let's see if I can handle this fastball inside and low like I love 'em:
"(1) Why would the GOP support raising workers’ taxes right now?"
To worsen the economy and help them regain power by blaming everything on President Obama and the Democrats.
(2) Given a choice between helping the economy and sabotaging it, which do Republicans prefer?
Sabotage!
Wow, look at that - 450 feet in the upper deck!!!
That was today's SATTSQ: Simple Answer to Two Simple Questions!
kevo on November 29, 2011 2:16 PM:
Mr. Benen, the speculation of motive should not be pondered any longer!
Republicans are cynically working to tank the economy so they can pin the mess on President Obama, knowing unassuming American voters will be at the very least, confused; and at the very most, willing to embrace a negative emotional feeling toward President Obama when they step into the ballot booth in November of next year!
Our nation will only get healthier - implementation of ACA, tax fairness, economic justice, etc. - when the Republican brand is punished at the polls.
A vote for Republicans in 2012 is a vote for the death of America's Middle Class!
Oh, and Kyl is a serial liar! (But then again, maybe the previous statement was not intended to be a factual representation!)-Kevo
Gandalf on November 29, 2011 2:27 PM:
Steve at some point in time you'll call a spade a spade. There are no question as to what the republicans are doing. To even be the least bit incredulous as to their motive sis either naive or disingenuous on your part.a
RepublicanPointOfView on November 29, 2011 2:41 PM:
Again & again I keep pointing out to you idiots that the only problems with Our Economy are that:
1) the wealthy do not have enough wealth
2) we have too big a middle class
3) the poor do not pay enough taxes
Senator Kyl is correct!!!
Letting the 'Payroll Tax Holiday' expires affirmatively addresses items 2 & 3. The only other major actions needed to help Our Economy are to reduce the top income tax rates substantially, eliminate capital gains taxes, and eliminate the Death Tax.
Why is it so hard for you progressives to understand economics and that only working people should have to pay taxes?
Dredd on November 29, 2011 2:58 PM:
There is always an intent to help the "economy". But it doesn't work because it has morphed into a plutonomy, and well you know, the new mantra is "not exactly".
Metric wrenches don't work on conventional screw head jobs.
Zorro on November 29, 2011 4:41 PM:
Given a choice between helping the economy and sabotaging it, which do Republicans prefer?
"Listen all y'all, it's a sabotage!"
The Beastie Boys- right before their political time.
-Z