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Might we see the return of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in 2013? She believes the pieces are in place.
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said Thursday that Democrats have a shot at taking back the House in 2012.
The former Speaker touted the diversity of the candidates the Democrats have recruited — “two generals, a colonel … legislators, small business people, mayors, many women and minorities” — and noted that the party, despite being the minority, has outraised the Republicans on the campaign trail this year.
“We have definitely put the House in play,” she said during her weekly press briefing in the Capitol.
“From a political standpoint, we’re very proud of the recruitment of candidates — all with the determination to take us off the path that the Republicans have put us on,” she said.
I’m a firm believer in the notion that predictions a year out are a bad idea, since so many factors can and will change, perhaps more than once. But Pelosi’s comments are more than just a boast; there’s reason to think she’s right.
House Dems, who need a net gain of 26 seats next year to take back the House (it will be 25 if Dems win the upcoming special election in Oregon), have fared quite well in recent months, finding success both in recruiting and fundraising.
And then there are the polls. Congress’ approval rating, as is well known, has dropped to a stunning 9% — the lowest since the dawn of modern polling. That, in and of itself, makes electoral volatility rather likely, raising the possibility of the majority and minority swapping roles.
But Dems also fare well in generic ballots. The latest polls from NBC, Reuters, and National Journal all show Americans preferring a Democratic House majority to a Republican one, in margins ranging from two points to eight. When TPM averaged all of the generic-ballot polls, it found Dems with their first lead in nearly two years.
What’s more, the House Majority PAC commissioned surveys from Public Policy Polling in 12 vulnerable Republican districts, and also found Dems looking quite strong.
Like I said, a year is a long time in campaign politics, and there are plenty of variables — retirements, economic conditions, potential scandals, etc. — that are unpredictable. But we know this Congress is extremely unpopular, that Republicans have cast several votes that can come back to haunt (eliminating Medicare, for example), and that Dems have positioned themselves reasonably well to take advantage of the opportunity.
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c u n d gulag on November 03, 2011 2:15 PM:
The message should be it's NOT the Congress's fault - it's the REPUBLICANS IN the Congress that's the problem.
And EVERY Democrat from the President needs to rinse and repeat.
Compare 2009-2011 to the Congress voted in a year ago.
There's NO comparison!
NONE.
T2 on November 03, 2011 2:16 PM:
"a year is a long time in campaign politics" HA ! in the GOP presidential campaign, a day is a long time....just ask Herman "hey,baby" Cain or Rick "animated" Perry.
Gretchen on November 03, 2011 2:29 PM:
I'm still not hearing who's challenging my Tea-Party rep in Kansas-02. Our Blue Dog, who'd served for 10 years, retired abruptly shortly before the election, not leaving much time for a credible candidate to emerge. Yoder ran as a moderate Republican, but has been voting full-on Tea-Party since he's been in office, and this is definitely not a Tea Party district. His Facebook page is full of challenges and dissent. I hope, hope, hope somebody good is planning to run against him, but I haven't heard a peep yet.
stormskies on November 03, 2011 2:44 PM:
The simple fact that any American at this point, given what the Repiglicans have done in the past to destroy our economy, their actual and factual record, is a real testimony to the nature of the citizens of this country. And the fact they they have exactly any new ideas at all, only want to do exactly what they did to destroy it in the first place, the fact that any American wants to support this is just further evidence of how truly stupid about half of our country is.
Cauteloso on November 03, 2011 2:52 PM:
The greater question is the Senate, which could be a very tough struggle this cycle. It's not inconceivable that the Democrats could win back the House and lose control of the Senate (not that they control it much now in any case).
arkie on November 03, 2011 3:29 PM:
"lose control of the Senate"
Where is this magical land where the Democrats "control" the Senate?
rrk1 on November 03, 2011 3:30 PM:
One needs to remember that much of next year's money is being collected by outside groups using the 'Citizens' United' super PACs to funnel unlimited corporate money into those races. Whatever reporting there is of campaign fundraising there is it isn't enough and it isn't accurate.
Ron Byers on November 03, 2011 3:39 PM:
Most years incumbants have overwelming advantages. Not this year. In addition to being wrong on the issues, many of current crop of Republican representatives aren't very good at retail politics. They don't know how to serve their consitutents or if they do they aren't interested in serving them.
The Republicans have bet the farm on beating Obama. In the process they seem on the verge of losing the congress.
President Lindsay on November 03, 2011 4:06 PM:
This is where there's real danger from the Republicans' war on voting. They might not be able to defeat Obama but they could keep Congress from swinging to the Dems by their shenanigans, setting up four more years of gridlock. It's going to take a massive and unprecedented GOTV effort by Dems this year to counteract these anti-voting laws in so many states.
boffo on November 03, 2011 4:07 PM:
I don't think a year is too early to start talking about the House flipping back to Democrats. As soon as the Republicans had a shot at taking back the House, it was nearly impossible not avoid stumbling across that prediction in media reports, including ones not necessarily about the House. As a consequence, the media helped created a sense of inevitability for the Republican takeover.
There's no reason you need to be bashful about doing the same, Steve.
Another Steve on November 03, 2011 4:17 PM:
TPM's polling average includes Rasmussen polls which swamp the regression by their frequency but which, in the case of the the Congressional generic ballot, are so far out of sync with every other poll that it's comical. On no other poll does the methodological error built into all Rasmussen polling to bias the results rightward manifest itself so dramatically.
Go to TPM Polltracker, filter out Rasmussen and you'll find that the lines crossed last February. Why this isn't a scandal is one of the enduring mysteries of the media world to me.
jeri on November 03, 2011 5:24 PM:
I worry that Democrats, having found themselves on the right side of just about everything, will suddenly panic and throw it all overboard. Just like they did in 2010 when they joined Republicans in criticizing their own record. (For example: healthcare = bad, so ignore all the good features) Somehow they fear being alone even if it is in the winners circle.
Sigh.
slf on November 03, 2011 6:39 PM:
And let's hope that President Obama makes it a point in every speech and campaign stop he makes to drum up support for the local CD Democratic candidate, challenger or incumbent. We need them all, and Nancy as Speaker, back ASAP.
And P.S. Senate: Fix the stranglehold on the nation's vital business, the filibuster. You want filibusters, Senators: Do it the old fashioned way where you stand and deliver.
Joe Buck on November 03, 2011 8:02 PM:
Progressives should let the president fend for himself with support from his Wall Street friends, and focus all efforts behind taking back the House. We'll have more progressive outcomes with a Democratic House and a Republican president than vice versa.
Obama has been so busy triangulating that in some areas it might help the Democratic candidate to partly run against him. For example, attack both Obama and congressional Republicans for focusing on the debt instead of on putting people to work. Attack them both for paying more attention to Wall Street than to Main Street.
Rudy Gonzales on November 03, 2011 10:30 PM:
This is the way America is going with the confrontational TEA party controlled GOP running the social programs locally and at the state level. More Hispanics and elderly needing help or assistance while the super rich 1%-ers live in Utopian luxury. "There now really is no unaffected group, except maybe the very top income earners", pretty well describes the issues the TEA party does not want to acknowledge. America has always been a social country, willing to help across the world and our own nation. Now the elite few in power in Washington and state Houses and even in local government hold the purse strings and control, and as such stingily hand out assistance while they and their closest friends soak in the riches of running a state or federal agency. The "Occupy Wall Street" demonstrators have brought to the forefront the non-production of jobs promised by the TEA party in the 2010 election. Also brought to light is the concentration of wealth in the hands of fewer and fewer people and the concentration of power in stricter, less compassionate hands. To those who didn't vote in 2010, here's a great reason to jump start your reason to vote in 2012! If you are not happy with the way Washington is working, change the mix! If you are not happy with the way Washington is working, voice your opinion. If you are not happy with the way Washington is working, get involved, join the 99%, make your voices heard! If you are not happy with the direction Washington is going with the radical extreme fringe calling the shots, make your votes count! The current process dates to 1974, when Congress overhauled the way the government’s spending was planned in an effort to enhance its own role as keeper of the purse strings, the real reason the current 112th Congress owns the nation's current economy. Since 1974, Congress has followed the process as designed — passing a budget and all 12 spending bills on time — only twice. “We need to do something extraordinary” - Like vote out everyone of those Congress members who will not compromise!