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Last week, after a needlessly-contentious process, Congress approved a two-month extension of the payroll tax break. As part of the agreement, a conference committee will try to come up with an agreement to extend the cut through the end of 2012.
I’ve been rather pessimistic about the likelihood of success, and yesterday, the odds got worse.
The Senate Republican leader announced Friday that he had chosen three of his colleagues to try to thrash out a bipartisan deal on payroll taxes, unemployment benefits and Medicare.
The three Republican senators will join four Democratic senators and 13 House members on a conference committee wrestling with the issues, which tied the Senate in knots for more than two months.
The newly named Republican conferees are Senators Jon Kyl of Arizona, Michael D. Crapo of Idaho and John Barrasso of Wyoming.
These aren’t three senators you’d appoint to a conference committee if you want to be constructive. These are three senators you’d appoint to a conference committee if you want to be destructive.
Kyl, for example, was instrumental in sabotaging the super-committee process, and was described by Democratic negotiators as “walking napalm.” Crapo and Barrasso, meanwhile, are two far-right senators who’ve never demonstrated any willingness to accept concessions on anything.
What’s more, note that the House GOP leadership has already announced its conferees, most of whom have already said they don’t want a payroll-cut extension no matter what concessions Democrats are willing to make.
The conference committee will technically have until March 1, when the cut expires, but as a practical matter, they’ll have to wrap up a deal well before then, giving both chambers a chance to debate and vote on an agreement.
Of course, the likelihood of there even being an agreement now borders on fanciful. Republican participants won’t be willing to compromise, and most of them don’t fear failure since they oppose tax breaks for the middle class on principle.
What about the risk of being blamed? Remember, as far as GOP leaders are concerned, the process itself offers cover. Instead of last week, when House Republicans became the clear villains, when the conference committee struggles to come up with a bipartisan solution, the party will find it easier to spread the blame around.
“It’s not our fault,” GOP leaders will say. “We tried to work with Democrats on a deal, but one didn’t come together. Oh well.”
For Republicans, it’s the best of all possible worlds: middle-class taxes would go up, the economy would take a hit, public disgust for Washington would be renewed, and the media would feel obligated to say “both sides” failed to reach an agreement.
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Clem Yeobright on December 31, 2011 9:24 AM:
The 1% will have their full cut by then, won't they?
Let's get this straight: IF the P/R tax cut is NOT extended, the 1% - who will have hit the SS earnings cap by then - will have settled their FICA obligation at 4.2% of the cap. Meanwhile, MOST Americans will pay 4.2% on one-sixth of their income and 6.2% on five-sixths.
Do the Rs really want to play it that way?
POed Lib on December 31, 2011 9:26 AM:
I hope it fails. The SS is currently cash-negative - it is paying out more than it is taking in. This is not good. The SS "IOU" which is not real strong is now running the system, but the cash-flow issue has brought the day of default closer. Plus this sets a TERRIBLE PRECEDENT. I hope that the tax break is rescinded.
c u n d gulag on December 31, 2011 9:26 AM:
Steve,
Welcome back.
Ed did a fabulous job, but he ain't you!
Crapo, Barrasso & Kyl.
Sounds like a law firm in a Dickens book, determined to swindle the orphanage out of its money and throw the kids out on the street.
kevo on December 31, 2011 9:33 AM:
Republicans - opportunists using the democratic process to earn a better buck than their fellow Americans. Profit from politics has been the mantra of Kyl and his ilk. McConnell knows how to blow up many a political solution, and he is just operating under standard procedure.
I do wonder when and if ever critical mass will hit the 99%ers? I do hope 99%ers realize the only way to change the status quo is to Occupy the Ballot Booth (OBB) with knowledgeable understanding of which candidate will represent and vote for Middle Class and Working Class interests over the caviar-set vested interests?
As it is, the Millionaire's Club of Congress is suffering ill-fated non-sense upon the rest of us! -Kevo
Danp on December 31, 2011 9:37 AM:
The SS is currently cash-negative
No, it isn't. It has several trillion dollars owed it by the general fund. Republicans like thinking of it as erasable debt, because they don't want to replenish it with income tax revenue. But if you look at it that way, the Reagan FICA increases were a complete scam. Furthermore, the reason for doing this is to generate economic demand, which in the short term is absolutely vital.
I'm also not convinced that the Republicans can continue to use the process as an excuse. When people say they don't trust Congress, it isn't equal. Republicans have lost the argument.
T2 on December 31, 2011 10:05 AM:
"best of all worlds"........doesn't seem that the GOP always gets that outcome? They can manipulate the process and Media, and always out maneuver the Dems. In the short term, the Dems did score a win with the recent payroll cut, but the GOP- in full view of us all- forced the Dems into concessions in the process......and that is that: the Dems " win" when they give up to the GOPers...now as Steve Benen points out, they"ll be faced with even more concessions in this Tea Party-stacked committee....which will be a predictable disaster.
I will be glad to see the Payroll Tax revert to the previous level so that 6 months from now we won't have to listen to the GOP yell about how Obama has bankrupted Social Sec because of his payroll cuts ( which of course the Media will completely agree with).
POed Lib on December 31, 2011 10:20 AM:
SS is currently cash-flow negative. You can say all kinds of crap to lie about that, but this is true. We have less coming in on SS than going out.
I don't give a crap about the IOU. The government is currently running up huge debts, and we have to think about that. The answer is NOT tax cuts. I do agree that the temporary assumption of debt in return for stimulus is a good idea, which is why I support unemployment payments which are taken from debt.
The SS reduction is a really terrible idea. It is a long-term threat against SS, since it has opened the door (camel's nose and all that) to additional reductions, and this eventually will threaten the program.
In addition, this idiotic idea has basically conceded to the Repukeliscum that they are right - tax cuts are what is needed. Tax cuts are NOT stimulative.
sick -n-effin-tired on December 31, 2011 10:28 AM:
The SS is currently cash-negative
And if the upper limit on income was increased to 250k the problem would solve itself.
Unfortunately the multimillionaires club in congress is playing for the other team , those who will never need SS or medicare and as a result could give a rats ass if both went under. As a matter of fact they would love it .
Keep those seniors working to dilute the labor pool. Poor people scrambling for crumbs work cheap. What could be better than that for the bottom line. And you say Republicans don't have a plan.
Diane Rodriguez on December 31, 2011 11:01 AM:
It is almost impossible to change collective public opinion through rational argument. That's been pretty clear since reality TV set the standard for critical thinking. If you require more than a bumper sticker to explain a concept you've lost. If you are white, male, affluent, arrogant and you brandish your imagined Christianity like a hot poker while never venturing beyond bumper-sticker speak - you're gold.
I am hoping what has been overlooked will be Romney's and other Republican Congress members' Achilles Heel in the general. When something moves from effecting the public to effecting you personally, it matters. I think the Republican Congress will double down on screwing the majority of Americans. The people pulling the strings, like the Koch brothers, are the drivers and are merely using idiots like Cantor et al. It is becoming very difficult for regular people to be flummoxed by the show while they are systematically stripped of basic rights and opportunities. Obama must take advantage of the single-minded intransigence on the right and how it is decimating the individual.
Brenna on December 31, 2011 11:16 AM:
I'm not so sure the republicans will come out of this clean. Remember, the primaries will be in full force. Do they really want to have this fight now? I'm hoping yes.
chi res on December 31, 2011 11:32 AM:
when the conference committee struggles to come up with a bipartisan solution, the party will find it easier to spread the blame around.
Some of that depends on whether Obama and Dems are attacked from both sides, as has become SOP, or whether the so-called progressives will hold their fire and support a win with reasonable compromises.
Given some of the comments here, it sounds like the firebaggers are already gearing up to throw crap at this.
bigtuna on December 31, 2011 12:04 PM:
Barrasso and Crapo are idiots and fools.
Krendofan on December 31, 2011 12:19 PM:
Why do the Dems have to compromise at all? Republicans say they want to lower peoples taxes. Dems want to lower taxes on working people. In theory they could act right away on what they agree upon. And any wishywashy nambypamby stalling or complaining by the Repugs should be shoved right back in their faces as evidence of their disdain for the American people.
Hannah on December 31, 2011 12:46 PM:
The thing Dems must do, every day, is put out the narrative to folks 'when your take home pay shrinks in March, it is because the Republicans in Congress refused to continue the middle class tax cut wanted by the President and Congressional Democrats'.
That may help, though no guarantee the 'he said, she said' media will decide to state the facts. Look at how many believe Obama has raised rather than lowered their taxes.
All that said, I do agree that we shouldn't be cutting social security taxes, or if we do, the cap should be lifted to make up for it.
Maritza on December 31, 2011 1:10 PM:
I disagree. I think that there will be a payroll tax extension.
If the Senate GOP wanted to kill the extension they would have done it already.
Maritza on December 31, 2011 1:16 PM:
Steve,
If the GOP wanted to kill the extension they would have done it already.
Also, Senator Barrasso is a physician and physicans do NOT want to end the extension for physicians in terms of reimbursement for Medicare care so there will be an extension.
Killing it during an election year will hurt Republicans far more than Obama or Democrats. It will be in their interest to get it done. I agree that the Senate Republicans are useless but the Democrats in the Senate and House as well as some of the Republicans in the House will work together to get something done.