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December 02, 2011 2:30 PM Gingrich’s grim ground game

By Steve Benen

For all the talk about Newt Gingrich and his grand, big ideas — most of which are neither big nor grand — a vision doesn’t get voters to the polls; a campaign ground game does.

There’s a reasonable debate underway in many circles as to whether Gingrich’s recent rise is meaningful, a mirage, or a miracle — or perhaps some combination therein — and for what it’s worth, count me among the skeptics who still find it very hard to believe the disgraced former House Speaker is the likely nominee. But one of the factors driving my doubts is the fact that Gingrich’s entire campaign lacks basic, necessary components.

In an embarrassing display of organizational weakness, for example, Gingrich recently failed to qualify for the ballot in Missouri’s primary. The campaign structure, such as it is, simply didn’t follow through. Similarly, the Gingrich team was supposed to provide New Hampshire officials with a list of 40 committee volunteers who would represent the campaign as Republican National Convention delegates — but Gingrich’s staff couldn’t track down 40 willing supporters. Instead, they submitted a hand-scrawled, typo-ridden list of 27 people.

Of the major Republican candidates, Gingrich was the only one who failed to submit a full list of delegates and alternates — and polls show him running second in the state, so presumably he has some fans in the Granite State. Even Bachmann got it done, and she’s not even trying to compete in New Hampshire.

And there’s Iowa, where Gingrich is considered a very strong contender, despite the fact that he opened his very first campaign office in the state this week, just five weeks before the Iowa caucuses.

What’s going on? Politico reports that Gingrich has a “skeletal campaign operation,” which resembles a “mom-and-pop political operation.”

At a recent Republican Party of Iowa dinner, several Republicans discussed how impressed they were by Gingrich and said they wanted to help his campaign, if only they could find someone to contact.

Gingrich freely admits that the process of gearing up for a national campaign — the kind he was prepared to run before his initial staff resigned en masse in June — has been dizzying.

“This is disorienting. This is such a rapid change that we’re having to rethink our own internal operations right now and where we are,” Gingrich told reporters after addressing a Polk County GOP event Thursday night.

This was literally just last night. In other words, just 34 days before the Iowa caucuses, the alleged frontrunner has supporters who can’t even volunteer with his campaign, because there’s no operation for them to contact.

And if Gingrich somehow manages to do well despite the bare-bones operations in the early nominating states, how will the campaign manage once the race becomes a national contest against the well-organized Romney team? Neither Gingrich nor his aides have the foggiest idea.

Independent of whether Gingrich self-destructs and destroys his own chances, if his campaign falters down the stretch, this is likely to be a key reason why.

Steve Benen is a contributing writer to the Washington Monthly, joining the publication in August, 2008 as chief blogger for the Washington Monthly blog, Political Animal.

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  • Anonymous on December 02, 2011 2:39 PM:

    hand-scrawled, typo-ridden

    ???

  • stevio on December 02, 2011 2:44 PM:

    Gingrich should follow the pattern he has already defined. "I do nothing while the rest of the pack self-disintegrates. He's positioned himself, in large part, because he was never included in a meaning manner. The rest of the field are killing each other off by self-inflicted wounds.

    If I were him, I'd go hide till Romney completes his own self-annihilation.

    Gingrich will, however, kill himself if he keeps talking. Guaranteed.

  • Daniel Buck on December 02, 2011 2:51 PM:

    One of Gingrich's favorite rhetorical devices is, "we need a law that says," as if "that says" gets the job done.

    At this point, he has a campaign "that says."

    Dan

  • Texas Aggie on December 02, 2011 2:52 PM:

    Stevio has pretty much the same take on the situation that I do. But I just read an article about how some of Gingrich's various enterprises gave a lot of money to some of the Iowa evangelics to take down the judges who voted for same sex marriage.

    My own idea is that has built him a lot of support and since these people already had the mechanisms in place to go after the judges, they may be able to substitute their own structure on an ad hoc basis. While Gingrich may not have his own people in place, there are others who will do the work for him. That has sort of been his MO for most of his life, let other people do his stuff for him.

  • Arlington BigFish on December 02, 2011 2:54 PM:

    As I understand the process in Iowa, you've got to have troops ready to go in every precinct -- lining up the warm bodies on your side of the room at, literally, every single caucus. You have to have people who know what they're doing, organizationally & logistically. It's not just going into a booth & casting a vote. Without boots on the ground, you're toast (to mix metaphors). This will be fun to watch.

  • Grumpy on December 02, 2011 2:54 PM:

    Gingrich should beef up his troops by hiring a legion of 9-year-olds. Why shouldn't they support him? He's promised them all jobs.

  • Allison Wonderland on December 02, 2011 3:00 PM:

    Newt should offer Perry his VP spot for Perry to drop out, endorse Newt and have Newt take over his campaign staff and ground game.

    I have to believe Perry is looking for a way out, but wants to save face doing it. Make him an offer he can't refuse.

  • Al on December 02, 2011 3:05 PM:

    Liberals like Steve Benen are unable to muster coherent arguments against Newt Gingrich's ideas so they focus on the kind of administrative slip-ups that happen in any campaign.

  • MFA on December 02, 2011 3:05 PM:

    Grumpy, if the poorest of the poor kids in our poorest kid's neighborhoods only know about work when it involves illegalities, they'll fit right in with Newt "GOPAC" Gingrich.

  • chi res on December 02, 2011 3:07 PM:

    Modified for Iowa: All snapback, no pigs.

  • Chris on December 02, 2011 3:08 PM:

    Gingrich doesn't want to win. He only wants to make more money.

    That's why he doesn't have a campaign. That's why he goes to book signings. That's why he doesn't visit Iowa. That's why, despite his lead, his statements are becoming more outlandish by the day.

    Sadly, despite his best efforts, there's little short of present-day family sins or criminal indictment that can dissuade TeaGOP voters from clinging to an effective right-wing flame thrower who isn't named Mitt Romney. If Gingrich doesn't want to get the nomination--and he doesn't--he's probably going to have to get caught committing adultery...again.

  • slappy magoo on December 02, 2011 3:09 PM:

    Why, Newt almost seems like a man running for President who
    a: doesn't really want to be President.
    b: thought that running for President would drive up his speaking engagement fees, stimulate business to his not-a-lobbying firm, and sell books.
    c: is just as surprised as the rest of us that he's the current front-runner
    d: wants to not-win the nomination, because Obama in a debate will eat him alive (sorry for the visual), while at the same time wants throw the red meat to the base necessary to keep him looking credible as a "serious thinker" in neocon circles (see "b"). Because if he loses the nomination, then when things go bad, he's the guy who TRIED to save the Party but no one would listen. If he wins the nomination but loses the election, he's a loser.

    Of course, that can't be it. Could it? No, it couldn't. Maybe? No, absolutely not...probably.

  • liam foote on December 02, 2011 3:09 PM:

    The first GOP big and surprising bump for Mr. Cain was a poll in Florida where a great number of the elderly voters were impressed by his successful battle against stage four cancer. A miracle man ... someone who personifies that by which they too might survive!

    Mr. Gingrich becoming the flavor of the week is simply due to the fact that many GOP'ers think of him as some silver-tongued debater who can humiliate Mr. Obama, but not being aware of the Jan 29, 2010, GOP retreat in Baltimore when Obama blew them away sans teleprompter.

    No ... this current crop of candidates is hopeless. We are going to a brokered convention where the lunatic fringe will be eradicated and a moderate, sensible, respected professional will be annointed. My money is on Sen. Richard Lugar of Indiana.

  • AfGuy on December 02, 2011 3:12 PM:

    Newt Gingrich's ideas, Al?

    Now, what would those be? You talking about dismantling the child labor laws so kids can be hired do janitorial work?

    Those types of ideas, Al?

    Why would anyone need to generate a "coherent argument" against tripe such as that? Is that the type of stuff you find appealing, Al?

  • chi res on December 02, 2011 3:12 PM:

    Liberals like Steve Benen are unable to muster coherent arguments against Newt

    Believe me, Al, "liberals like Steve Benen" would simply LOVE for Gingrich to win the republican nomination.

    We'd all waltz to 11/12.

  • N.Wells on December 02, 2011 3:15 PM:

    I thought Gingerich was serious in his intentions but his lack of a campaign staff makes his campaign look like an unserious vanity effort in order to raise his speaking fees. If I were Obama, I'd be awfully tempted to talk Emily Parcell and Paul Tewes (Obama's great Iowa staff from 2008) into loaning their services to Newt to make sure he does well in the caucus.

  • bdop4 on December 02, 2011 3:17 PM:

    Chris has it right.

    Like Cain, Newt was running to milk the cash cow of conservatard campaign contributions. He hadn't anticipated actually having to pay people to do any real grassroots campaigning.

  • Werewolf on December 02, 2011 3:30 PM:

    Hey, y"all-
    Al is a parody troll-hasn't been here in a while, though.

  • low-tech cyclist on December 02, 2011 3:36 PM:

    Remember early this year, when Sarah Palin was still high in the polls?

    Remember what really killed her chances?

    Palin didn't want to actually do the work of campaigning.

    Neither does Newt, apparently.

    At least Palin ultimately had the sense not to run.

    Newt got up to the 8-9% range in the polls, which isn't a bad place to be in a campaign like this a few months out, back in late September. He held that range throughout October. Then over the last month, his numbers took off.

    And even now, he doesn't have any real campaign organization.

    Newt's gonna bomb, just like Palin, Trump, Bachmann, Perry, and Cain before him.

  • T2 on December 02, 2011 3:38 PM:

    Allison Wonderland - Newt has already selected his VP running mate - the only person who could possibly be on his high intellectual level - Newt Gingrich. Yes, I see a Gingrich/Gingrich ticket.

    Seriously, his "poor kids can only be criminals" comment today shows Newt's worst enemy - his mouth. And just as it was with Rick Perry's "dumb" , Newt ain't gonna suddently stop saying stuff like that....he just can't.

  • Elle A on December 02, 2011 4:02 PM:

    Newt did not expect to become the frontrunner, much less the nominee. This has been a vanity project for him.

    If he manages to become the nominee it will point to how much Romney is disliked by his fellow Republicans.

    What should really worry the Republican voters about Newt is not whether he is smart enough to debate Obama, after all SOS Clinton is plenty smart, but whether he can out-organize the Prez.

    Cos if that Obama kid knows something, its how to organize a campaign.

    Further still, if Newt cannot run a campaign, how does he plan to run the bloody country??!

    Anyway, its all kabuki. Bar a meteor strike, Obama wins a second term.

  • chi res on December 02, 2011 4:24 PM:

    Al is a parody troll

    Now that you mention it, I remember someone saying that before. And I remember commenting something like, "Parody really only works if there's some kinda clue that it's parody. Al appears to be clueless."

  • Wyatt on December 02, 2011 4:48 PM:

    "Really poor children in really poor neighborhoods have no habits of working and have nobody around them who works. So they literally have no habit of showing up on Monday. They have no habit of staying all day. They have no habit of 'I do this and you give me cash,' unless it's illegal."

    ...

    "I repudiate, and I call on the President to repudiate, the concept of the 99 and the 1. It is un-American, it is divisive, it is historically false."

    Ah, got it... so criticism of the 1% at the top is un-American. The 'American' thing to do is criticize the hell out of the 1% at the bottom until they decide to start pulling their weight and get a damned job like the rest of us!
    Thanks for the new attack ad, Newt.

  • JRV on December 02, 2011 4:49 PM:

    He's not really running, but with those organizational skills, Newt in the Oval Office would be a catastrophe. He's a whimsical child with all the discipline that implies.

  • Sean Scallon on December 02, 2011 5:24 PM:

    Who has the strongest ground game in Iowa? Ron Paul. Don't believe me? Go ask Iowa's Republican governor Terry Brandstad and he'll tell you the same thing.

    But hey, you keep at trying to pump up Jon Hunstman. Someone has to say a good word for him, I guess. It's too bad his campaign won't pony up a portion of his family fortune to do so. Ron Paul at least gets his money from the people.

  • T2 on December 02, 2011 5:32 PM:

    "He's a whimsical child with all the discipline that implies." Sounds like George W. Bush.

  • Caffiend on December 02, 2011 6:50 PM:

    Who has the strongest ground game in Iowa? Ron Paul. Don't believe me? Go ask Iowa's Republican governor Terry Brandstad and he'll tell you the same thing.

    So what? He isn't going to win the nomination, and he sure as hell is never going to be President. But you keep trying to pump up Congressman Clueless, the anti-choice libertarian.

  • exlibra on December 02, 2011 8:16 PM:

    So, his ground game is in the sketchy-to-non-existent range, held together with duct tape. That kind of pluck and entrepreneurship is what Americans admire the most, no? Long live Gingrich and his under-12 army!

  • Doug on December 03, 2011 7:27 AM:

    At first I thought it was a combination of stevio's and Texas Aggie's points, but then I read slappy magoo's post and now I'm torn between whether the disgraced former Speaker really wants the nomination or not.
    Maybe it's that he was FIRST following slappy magoo's scenario, but his ego took over and now he's thinking "Yes, yes, yes!"?

  • Michael Rivero on December 25, 2011 11:35 AM:

    Gingrich's campaign workers are imaginary people! :)

  • Jim on December 25, 2011 1:14 PM:

    When the banksters purchased Gingrich for this fiasco, they must have failed to bring him up to speed on his end of the bargain.

  • Miguel Grande on December 26, 2011 8:10 AM:

    Dr Paul's campaign staff has been on the ground and running full steam in Iowa since 2007. Newt failed to submit 10,000 valid signatures to get on the ballot in Virginia. When I volunteered for Ron Paul, I was told that if 10,000 was needed you had to turn in 25,000 because the registrar of voters would declare at least half as invalid. Everybody knows this.

    All of the other candidates are promoted in the main stream media and phoney polls. They say Newt or Mitt or RP has a 1% lead and then the Diebold machines flip the vote. It only works when the voting is close and competitive. Yesterday,CNN admitted that Dr Paul has 52% of the prospective voters, more than all of the others combined. Now they are claiming a surprising Ron Paul surge in New Hampshire. Win-Win for Dr Paul.

    Israel usually determines the winner by seeing who kisses their ass the best. This year Israel was caught selling the US taxpayer funded Iron Dome anti-missile defense system to China. If Iran is such a danger to Israel why would Israel sell this top secret irreplaceable $100,000,000,000.00 missile umbrella to our potential enemy. Israel's response to getting caught, they demand another $100 million.

    Next candidate to publicly kiss Israel's ass gets chopped into mincemeat by Dr Paul's common sense attack.

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