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Erick Erickson this week suggested he’s “praying” for a brokered Republican convention, so that some other GOP candidate — as opposed to those currently running — might win the party’s presidential nomination. Joe Scarborough said in response, “I don’t know many Republicans who aren’t praying for a brokered convention right now.” (thanks to F.B. for the tip)
Though he doesn’t specifically reference the brokered possibility, Rhodes Cook argues today that it’s not “too late” for some other “late-starting candidate to emerge” in the new year. Bill Kristol seems excited about the possibility.
It wouldn’t be easy to pull off a late draft or a late entry, but it’s not as impossible as conventional wisdom assumes.
The key, I think, would be if both Romney and Gingrich stumbled during January. If that were to happen, there would be a window of opportunity in February — during the gap between the first spurt of January primaries and Super Tuesday on March 6. The window probably closes around Valentine’s Day — Tuesday, February 14 — so let’s call the late entry the Valentine’s Day option. That could be the last chance (unless there’s a deadlocked convention, which isn’t totally outside the realm of possibility either) for Republicans to throw off the old suitors and run into the arms of a new Prince Charming. Or two. And Valentine’s Day is for the young.
So … why not the best? Ryan-Rubio 2012?
First, this really should be humiliating for the Republican Party. They’ve been planning to take on President Obama for three years, and as of last week, had at least eight candidates to choose from (more if you include guys like Buddy Roemer and Gary Johnson). And yet, just 26 days before the Iowa caucuses, leading GOP voices are still trying to figure out how to get a better candidate nominated.
Second, the party should probably give up hope now of a brokered convention, at which a white knight can come save the party. It’s “not going to happen.”
And just as an aside, I can’t help but wonder how Mitt Romney, who’s been running practically non-stop for five years, feels about all of this.
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stormskies on December 08, 2011 2:26 PM:
And just as an aside, I can’t help but wonder how Mitt Romney, who’s been running practically non-stop for five years, feels about all of this.
*************
He should flush himself down the toilet ... right where he belongs
c u n d gulag on December 08, 2011 2:28 PM:
If Bill Kristol thinks it'll be a brokered convention, then it'll be be a brokered convention!
That guy's NEVER wrong!
Oh yes, and I love the idea of Ryan being their candidate, with his Eddie Munster haircut, and those sociopathic blue eyes.
'Privatizing Ryan' would go over great with his "Throw Mama From the Medicare Train" plan.
chris on December 08, 2011 2:37 PM:
What the Republicans want is a radical extremist who will have a broad appeal to the general voters. And I would like a square circle, and a nice black shade of white. The hunt for the right Republican candidate is a symptom of a diminished sense of reality. However, consider something else: A con man is someone who offers the impossible to those desperate and gullible enough to seek it. Republicans are and will continue to be victims of a huge con game as long as they seek what an honest person can never offer them.
Jon on December 08, 2011 2:42 PM:
What does it say about a party, that in a down economy, with control of so many states, they can't find one sane, reputable, and intelligent nominee able and willing to challenge the incumbent? That's what would be worrying me, as a Republican, not whether we could pull off some last minute maneuver to salvage the situation. The problem is a lot deeper than this one issue of nomination strategy.
hells littlest angel on December 08, 2011 2:44 PM:
I still hold out hope that a quick amendment to the Constitution will allow Jonathan Krohn to step in and save the Republic.
Anonymous on December 08, 2011 2:46 PM:
"... I can’t help but wonder how Mitt Romney ... feels about all of this."
Mitt feels the same way about this as he does about everything else: Absolutely nothing.
It's kinda hard to have feelings when your sould is nothing more than a sucking void of emptiness.
just bill on December 08, 2011 2:48 PM:
ryan and rubio? my god! they're just as bad as the rest of the pathetic clown car!
Mitch on December 08, 2011 2:48 PM:
*soul
T2 on December 08, 2011 2:51 PM:
as the noose tightens around the Republican neck (the hangman being the TeaParty) they can't help but veer even further toward the unstable, crazy positions they've been handed by the 2010 crop of TeaParty idealogues such as Ryan, Bachmann, DeMinted, Cantor and their cohorts. They are facing the worst choice of presidentiall candidates in modern history and down ticket losses. The wake up call was Newt Gingrich. When Party elders realized a few days ago that he just might sweep the early primaries.....my god, when Donald Trump starts moderating your nominating debates even the dumbest GOPer Big Wig must know they've got huge problems. And the thing is, they know that Blimp Christie isn't the answer, and Jeb Bush has a stinky name. The rest are unknowns. This is fun.
Peter C on December 08, 2011 2:57 PM:
If they hold a brokered convention, it will be our responsibility to make sure that all the activists supporting current candidates know that their candidates are losers utterly rejected by the party and the nation as a whole. Subsequent converstions must all begin, "didn't you originally support that loser Romney/Gingrich/Bachmann/Santorum/Perry/Huntsman/Cain/Paulenti/etc?? Why is Bush/Ryan/Ridge/Palin/McCain/Duke/Christie/Boehner/Thune/Bolton/Addington/Cheney/Priebus/Roberts/Simpson/Rove any better???" Then we mock the new guy; "what, the primary process too good for them??? Can't they stand the heat like everybody else???"
DAY on December 08, 2011 2:57 PM:
"The key, I think, would be if both Romney and Gingrich stumbled during January"
STUMBLED? What the H. E. double hockey sticks have they been doing, the past 5 months?
But Kristol is right, there will still be time for a "savior" to pick up the Republican mantle, in early 2012.
May I suggest Elmer Gantry? And another female VP, of course: Sister Sharon Falconer . . .
g on December 08, 2011 3:00 PM:
whoever emerges from a brokered convention is going to be just another untested and unvetted "flavor of the week" - the only difference would be that he/she would have less time to make the sale, and less experience in the trenches. It would be a hilarious disaster for the party.
FlipYrWhig on December 08, 2011 3:03 PM:
I think they're holding out hope that there will be a technological breakthrough that enables them to create a living, breathing Generic Republican. That guy always does so much better in the polls than their actual candidates.
markg8 on December 08, 2011 3:05 PM:
Just in time for Valentine's Day, America's sweetheart Sarah Palin! Weeeee!
Kevin (not the famous one) on December 08, 2011 3:06 PM:
I hear that for the cost of a wardrobe and newspaper subscriptions (all of 'em), Sister Palin could change status to available.
square1 on December 08, 2011 3:08 PM:
@Chris nails it. In recent years, the Republican party has been able to hold together a coalition of voters that really don't belong together. This unnatural alliance between largely Christian fundamentalist social conservatives, big-government corporatists, and true small-government libertarians is starting to come apart.
The libertarians can generally be ignored. But the corporatists who back Romney are going to have a hard time finding any candidate to satisfy the social conservatives. It isn't about Romney, personally (although the Mormonism doesn't help). And it isn't about flip-flopping (anyone who genuinely rejects Romney's hypocricy and flip-flopping is not going to settle for Gingrich).
The problem is that Romney doesn't hate liberals enough. He doesn't snarl and drool while accusing Obama of being a Maoist. But Chris is entirely correct. It is almost impossible to find anyone who demonstrates sufficient vitriol when attacking liberals that won't be a turnoff appeal to the general public.
I see two legitimate potential dark horses. First, Chris Christie. He's a corporatist/pseudo-libertarian by nature, but he's also probably the biggest jerk in politics. He goes far out of his way to insult and piss people off. This would be attractive to the social conservatives. What goes against him is that being a fat jerk isn't going to attract the independent voter.
I think that, on paper, Mike Huckabee remains the most dangerous candidate. He's a Fox News Republican with ties to big business. But he also has street cred with the teabaggers. He doesn't have to bite the heads off of liberals to get the teabagger vote.
N.Wells on December 08, 2011 3:13 PM:
Sarah!, Sarah!, Sarah!......
Seriously, they should dig up Reagan and run him. Notwithstanding being dead, he'd be more lifelike than Romney, more pleasant to be around than Newt, smarter than Bachmann, less gaffe-prone than Perry, less odious than Santorum, more electable than Huntsman, and far more trustworthy around women than Cain (and not less interested in world affairs than him either).
square1 on December 08, 2011 3:13 PM:
I'm also hoping that Howard Dean proved that you can't win Iowa without a bona fide ground game supported by the locals. Hopefully, Gingrich's popularity in polls won't translate into votes.
My concern is that, in the past 8 years, with the growth of social and other non-traditional media, the rules may have changed.
Mike on December 08, 2011 3:17 PM:
Republicans are victims of their own carelessness and extremism. In their effort to become perfectly conservative, they've driven away any candidate who would have the slightest chance to actually win the election. Any Republican who could win the election can't win the primaries, and the Republican who wins the primaries can't win the election. They've effectively driven away anyone who could effectively lead, leaving them with a bunch of pompous idealogues in leadership positions. This is clear by the legislative tactics that Republicans have adopted. They cannot compromise with democrats, so they can't get any legislation passed, so their goal is simply to make sure that no legislation that any Democrat might supports can't pass either.
Republicans clearly did NOT learn the lessons of the 2010 election. People WANT compromise. Their not getting it. So Republicans are gambling that the electorate will blame the incumbents, including the president. What Republicans forgot about is that, despite who people blame, they'll still vote for the best option, and Republicans haven't put one forth.
Redshift on December 08, 2011 3:25 PM:
Kristol's status as someone who is always wrong is secure, since he apparently doesn't know that almost all the Super Tuesday states have filing deadlines in December or early January, so new candidates can't just show up on Valentine's Day and ask to be included.
catclub on December 08, 2011 3:35 PM:
Square1 said "He's a Fox News Republican with ties to big business. " about Huckabee.
If that is true, then it represents a remarkable change since 2008, when Huckabee was famously unpopular with the business and club for growth crowd, and had the lack of fundraising to prove it.
I agree that Huckabee, because of likeability, seems to have many advantages. But those taxes he raised ( just becuase the courts ordered it, IIRC) are anathema to the business crowd.
wordtypist on December 08, 2011 3:46 PM:
Republicans should be humiliated by this. They won't be. There are all kinds of crap they've thrown this year but they are totally immune from feelings of humiliation.
Chris on December 08, 2011 3:50 PM:
"And yet, just 26 days before the Iowa caucuses, leading GOP voices are still trying to figure out how to get a better candidate nominated."
You could make it 1461 days (4 years from now), and this will still be the problem for the GOP.
Why? Because the Republican voters BELIEVES the stuff they're peddling on Fox News. And with the tea party so strong in their party, now a significant number of elected party leaders believe the same garbage too.
When you're the anti-intellectual, anti-tax, anti-government, pro-God & invisible hand of the market, now to the most extreme degrees, does anyone think they are going to have credible leaders in the GOP any time soon?
Kathryn on December 08, 2011 3:52 PM:
Two points, I think Romney is fast approaching nasty enough on Pres. Obama as yesterday he saw fit to call the president an appeaser several times while speaking to a Jewish group and have you gotten a load of (literally) Mile Huckabee lately, he's approaching Chris Christie bulk. Of course in the nasty department, Gingrich has no peer.
Mark on December 08, 2011 3:56 PM:
I am reminded of a similar scenario from the early 80's:
Many Democrats were waiting to commit to the Dem. Candidate because they thought that Mario Cuomo would run.
Alas he didn't.
However, there is no such White Knight for Republicans.
Rich on December 08, 2011 4:11 PM:
Romney is an odd candidate. Given his background, he should be the unanimous choice of the country club types and less craven than he appears to be. Instead, it seems like that wing of the party is sitting out the pre-primary process. Romney should have more endorsements and other chess pieces by now, but he doesn't even though all of his competition has been lightweight by almost any yardstick. The pundits haven't been crazy about Mitt although they've also failed to really examine him. they were practically orgasmic with the prospect of Gingrich, but he burned their expectations, people like Jon Meachem not withstanding. Others have briefly captured their imaginations, but no one who has actually entered the race seems to have their broad favor. Except for a certain kind of middling liberal, the pundits have never liked Obama although they lack the visceral hostility that was present for Clinton (only the wingnuts have that, but they'd have it for someone as jolly and embracing as Hubert Humphrey, or as dull and ineffectual as Tim Kaine). the rank and file journos seem to dislike Obama, but Romney's behavior and that of most of the field makes it apparent that no one is going to give them the head pats they got from Bush and McCain.
Sgt. Gym Bunny on December 08, 2011 4:14 PM:
Do you think they can manage to pull together a 16-city cross-country American Idol GOP-Nominee audition tour? It would been a much more efficient nominating/elimination process, and the reject real would probably have been absolute amazingness!!!!
Well, I guess they can recycle the idea for the 2015-16 election season... *sigh*
(Btw, it's so sad that politics has been turned into a 3-ring circus.)
Sgt. Gym Bunny on December 08, 2011 4:19 PM:
*reel*
Matt on December 08, 2011 5:14 PM:
I love the idea of a brokered Republican convention. It's so old-timey and retro! But let's not let the obvious point go unstated here: back when conventions were routinely decided on the 239th ballot, the fight was about which candidate you loved the most, not hated the least.
Obviously, the primary system is better than everything happening in smoke-filled rooms. And just as obviously, there needs to be a backup mechanism in place so that a genuine candidate can be nominated even if the guy who wins all the primaries ends up being unelectable (dead, sick, quit the race, etc.). But you can't slam on the gas (six solid months of viciously contested primaries) AND apply the emergency brakes (superdelegates and faithless delegates to the rescue in a brokered convention) at the same time and still win.
Sorry, GOP. It's a cool idea, but you'll be better off going with whatever limp fish wins a plurality of delegates. But for crying out loud, don't let me stop you. August is a crap month for TV otherwise!
David in NYC on December 08, 2011 5:20 PM:
All of this strikes me as the perfect setup to launch a Jeb Bush campaign. He can come in as the "smart and moderate" brother who could easily take Florida. The entire Tea Party movement was a rebranding exercise for the GOP, now he can swoop in as a last-minute alternative to Gingrich and Romney.
Nancy B. on December 08, 2011 5:32 PM:
I'm curious how this cycle will affect the GOP's 2016 field. Traditionally the nomination has gone to the previous contest's first runner-up. Assuming Obama wins again, does anyone think that Mitt or Newt (or any of the other clowns who didn't get the nod) will re-emerge for 2016?
T2 on December 08, 2011 5:33 PM:
the problem Jeb has (other than his last name) is that he's another obvious Washington Insider - which the Tea Party is supposed to hate. Of course he would campaign that he's just the opposite - an Outsider. But with his father and brother both being US Presidents, it might be a hard sell. People always call Jeb the "smart" one...his dad famously did. But let me tell you something, being smarter than George W. Bush is not much of an accomplishment.
Rich on December 08, 2011 6:04 PM:
One thing that isn't clearly present in this round is the degree to which any of these characters built up goodwill with rank and file GOP office holders. Gingrich is probably too interested in money making gigs, Mitt seems remote from everyone including voters, etc. Nixon went from has-been to come back through years of tireless speaking on behalf of GOP officeholders. I'm not clear how much Bush II did this and McCain seems to have had a lifelong aversion to developing real collegial relationships. This may be a symptom of modern campaigns in both parties (Gore and Kerry seem like people never built a storehouse of local IOUs and I suspect the same is true of Obama), but it may help explain some of the enthusiasm gap among Republicans. the yo-yoing numbers for each of them suggest that Faux news and the like can only so far in marketing a candidate, whereas cementing long-term political relationships might be more beneficial in creating sustained momentum.
Steve Din on December 08, 2011 7:56 PM:
Cheers to N. Wells above: Sarah! Sarah! Sarah! You laugh, but does anyone think she'd go quietly? She's wishin' and hopin' and dreamin'... Amazingly enough, she has less baggage than Bachmann, Gingrich, or Cain (R.I.P.), she's positively presidential next to Perry, and she can't be accused of flip-flopping like Romney (lying, yes, but lies are hard to prove on the campaign trail, especially when Republicans control the cable station of choice). You betcha she's cramming now, waiting for the groundswell. Oh that it has come to this.
ottercliff on December 08, 2011 9:04 PM:
So much for Ryan-Rubio. An endorsement from Bill Kristol is a kiss of death!
navamske on December 08, 2011 9:48 PM:
@stormskies
"He should flush himself down the toilet ... right where he belongs."
Mitt happens.
square1 on December 08, 2011 11:06 PM:
being smarter than George W. Bush is not much of an accomplishment.
Be that as it may, it is more than Rick Perry can handle.
johnbarkand on December 18, 2011 3:22 PM:
anyone hear of RON PAUL? wake up america!!!!!!!!!!