Political Animal
Blog
This week was Round One of a larger fight, and for Democrats, it was a win on points. For the next two months, Dems got the middle-class tax cuts they wanted and the clean extension of unemployment benefits they wanted. It’s not a bad way to wrap up the year.
The next question to consider, of course, is what happens in Round Two.
Republicans took a beating this week, but they don’t leave the ring empty handed. They’ll get an expedited decision on the Keystone XL pipeline and a conference committee process to work on a full-year extension.
It’s obviously early — the two-month deal still needs to pass — but it’s not too soon to look ahead and realize that the odds of a successful conference-committee process aren’t good at all. Ezra Klein had a good item looking at the bigger picture this morning.
One possibility is that the Republicans decide that fighting the payroll tax cut is simply too much trouble. If that’s their conclusion, then the next extension might pass easily. But another possibility is that House Republicans are furious at having been forced to buckle this time, and their takeaway is that, next time, they need a better strategy, and they need to make sure Mitch McConnell and John Boehner are on the same page. In that case, the next extension will be an even heavier lift.
I’m inclined to expect the latter. In fact, it’s practically a mortal lock.
The House GOP leadership has already announced its slate of members to participate in the conference committee, and not coincidentally, most of them have said they don’t want a payroll-cut extension no matter what concessions Democrats are willing to make.
House Republicans aren’t looking to start cutting deals; they’re angry and now even less inclined to compromise. But won’t the GOP run into the same pressures that led to this week’s capitulation? Maybe, but let’s not forget why Boehner & Co. were so eager to send this to a conference committee in the first place.
To offer a quick refresher, conference committees have historically been used to bridge the gap between similar-but-distinct versions of the same bill that have already passed the House and Senate. It works a bit like the recently-disbanded “super committee” — members of both parties and both chambers work out a bill that’s then sent to the floors for up-or-down votes.
In this case, Boehner believes that the conference committee will fail — Republicans will refuse to compromise — and the process will provide him and his party cover. Instead of this week, in which the House GOP became the clear villain, if/when the conference committee struggles to come up with a bipartisan solution, Republicans would find it easier to spread the blame around.
“It’s not our fault,” GOP leaders would say. “We tried to work with Democrats on a deal, but one didn’t come together. Oh well.”
For Republicans, it would be the best of all possible worlds: middle-class taxes would go up, the economy would take a hit, public disgust for Washington would be renewed, and the media would feel obligated to say “both sides” failed to reach an agreement.
Facebook
Twitter
c u n d gulag on December 23, 2011 8:48 AM:
Jeez, compared to Republicans, a rabid rat trapped in a corner looks like a Christmas puppy!
And next time, these evil assholes will do everything they can think of to make Obama and the Democrats eat sh*t.
And they'll probably spend the holiday's beating their wives and kicking their children and dogs, until they can think of something new they can do to f*ck this country up.
You almost hope they figure something out fast - if only for the sake of their poor wives, children and pets.
But then, they'll take it out on the rest of us, so, f*ck 'em - let the beatings continue!!!
Danp on December 23, 2011 8:48 AM:
For Republicans, it would be the best of all possible worlds
That's how the media will undoubtedly spin it, but there have been enough budget/deficit fights now. The public is largely aware that the issue is safety nets vs billionaires. Calling billionaires "small businesses" is starting to lose its quaint appeal. More and more, the Republican party will be associated with names like Bachmann, Perry, Gingrich,Paul, Cain and Romney. At best they are incompetent. At worst they really don't have our best interests at heart.
hells littlest angel on December 23, 2011 8:52 AM:
While the public (and the media) have a short memory, I think if Republicans pull such a stunt, they'll find you really can't fool all of the people all of the time.
I'm beginning to see the Democratic party's problem as being not so much the fecklessness of its leadership as the cynicism of its rank and file.
bignose on December 23, 2011 9:04 AM:
The GOP, in round two, will avoid blame if they can, especially if the Democrats let them. What we need is blame-mentum.
Don't. Let. Up.
c u n d gulag on December 23, 2011 9:06 AM:
hells littlest angel,
Hey now!
Watch it!!!
And I'm not cynical!
I'm... I'm... uh... jaded. Yeah, yeah, that's it - I'm just jaded.
I know it's a matter of semantics, but some antic's aren't reserved for the righties, alone!
I think we need some more antic's!
Hey, CRAPTCHA - it's the holidays, can't you give us a break?
tomb on December 23, 2011 9:11 AM:
While I agree with your historical analysis, I disagree with your conclusion that the past is prologue in this case. I think the dynamics on this issue has changed the narrative where the GOP is seen as obstructionists protecting the upper class at the literal expense of the middle class. Playing the same cards will reinforce this notion. To use a football analogy, the Republicans went for it on fourth down, didn't make it, and now have turned the ball over giving the Dems great field position.
SW on December 23, 2011 9:16 AM:
We should be so lucky! You are probably too young to remember David Niven's observation about a 'streaker' during the Academy Awards. Something about proudly displaying his shortcomings to such a large audience.
T2 on December 23, 2011 9:19 AM:
I agree with Benens last paragraph and tomb. Now that breaks in the TeaBag ranks have been exposed, and the trust between GOPer leaders has been damaged, the mistique of the TeaBags has suffered the first major hit, with more on the way I suspect. They aren't invincible, just spoiled brats.
Josef K on December 23, 2011 9:24 AM:
I fear Steve's prediction is spot-on unless, as tomb suggests, this has changed the media's narrative. Possible but not likely.
It would be nice to see a clean process for a change. It would be nicer to see the Democratic caucus actually negotiating something worthwhile for a change.
Guess we'll have to wait 'til next year to see what happens. I'm not looking forward to the fireworks.
June on December 23, 2011 9:31 AM:
I suspect it won't happen, but I would like to see every Democratic talking head that makes it before a camera essentially ask this question -- Republicans always insist that no one's taxes should go up - if that's the case, why do we need a committee to convince them to vote yes to ensure that taxes don't go up on 160 million Americans?
Add to it, I would like to see every Democratic talking head school the public on the points Benen discusses -- that Boehner, acting in bad faith as always, has only appointed to the committee members who are virulently to a middle-class tax cut. They are coming to the table in bad faith, and the only point of this exercise is to deflect blame from Republicans onto Democrats.
DisgustedWithItAll on December 23, 2011 9:34 AM:
I say phuck the Republicans. When they get back from the holidays, Harry Reid should just refuse to participate in the conference committee crap, pass a straight payroll tax vacation for the remainder of next year, and send it to the House, and watch this play out all over again. If Republicans can renege on their word like Boehner, then so can Reid, and he should. And he should tell everybody why. This would avoid letting the Republicans get every unrelated item on their wish list they can't get on the merits, and force them to vote down a middle class lifeline in the Lesser Depression their ideas caused.
Republicans make me sick.
June on December 23, 2011 9:34 AM:
Oops -- a sentence in my last post should read: Boehner, acting in bad faith as always, has only appointed to the committee members who are virulently opposed to a middle-class tax cut.
Ron Byers on December 23, 2011 9:35 AM:
Every one of those rabid Republicans has a political advisor or two who wants to have a job this time next year. So does every elected Democrat. They all want their member of congress to be their constituent's friend. Almost all of them will decide that this deal has to be cut.
I predict this next round will go very quietly. The payroll tax cut will be extended. The Democrats will drop the tax increase on billionaires and the Keystone Pipeline project will go through. Obama might be able to ring a little infractructure out of the Republican. The big news is there will be very little news.
just bill on December 23, 2011 9:36 AM:
i think the dynamics have changed. even the low information voters were able to see this one - that's why there was such a universal outcry. they'll remember this in two months. and even if the republicans try to pull their hostage stunt again, this time they'll get the blame when the tax cut expires.
could we please get some captcha's that we can read?
Ron Byers on December 23, 2011 9:49 AM:
For me the worst part of this deal is the Republicans caved. I am wondering about December 2012. How is Obama, the newly anointed "tax cutter in chief" going to resist pressure to extend the Bush tax cuts permanently?
Tony D on December 23, 2011 10:04 AM:
Dems should propose paying for the payroll tax cut with funds from a repatriation tax holiday, with overseas profits taxed at (say) 5-10%. Lets see the GOP say "no" to that!
just bill on December 23, 2011 10:14 AM:
sorry tony d. the repatriation tax holiday is about the dumbest idea around. these corporations obviously don't need to bring the money back at the current tax rates, so why give them that gift? wait them out, when they need the money, they'll pay the tax.
berttheclock on December 23, 2011 10:26 AM:
@SW,
"Isn't it fascinating that probably the only laugh he will ever receive is for displaying his shortcomings"
Planned event. Niven had written the comment during rehearsal.
jjm on December 23, 2011 10:34 AM:
Once bitten, twice shy. I don't see the GOP dragging the extension of the tax cut out. Yes, they're trying to go all Rod Blagoejvich and hold up the works till they get what they want. But I don't think they will succeed.
For, as the Wall Street Journal has pointed out, the GOP has not wrung a single real policy concession from the GOP, with the exception of extending the Bush tax cuts to permit extending unemployment insurance. And those tax cuts can and should expire.
Despite the impression that the Dems have given in and given in over and over, the truth is actually what the right wing Journal stated.
jjm on December 23, 2011 10:36 AM:
OOOPs! I meant the GOP has not wrung a single concession from the DEMOCRATS!
jdog on December 23, 2011 10:39 AM:
The radicalism of the current Republican caucus has been exposed to many people who did not get it yet. This is a big win: more people will understand how radical the Republicans are, and how depraved. Tax cuts for ordinary people are not a priority, and need to be paid for; but tax cuts for the wealthy are a priority, and do not need to be paid for. Many people understand this.
On a "fun" note, I took the opportunity to listen to a few minutes of right wing radio yesterday. Callers were despondent, and most of them wanted NO payroll tax break at all -- they considered the whole thing to be a cave-in. They characterized the tax relief as about $40 (a bi-weekly amount for many people), as opposed to, say a $1000 (annual) tax break. In their opinion this was a hand-out from the government. Isn't it ironic that a tax cut for an ordinary American is a hand-out, while a tax break for a multi-millionaire is merely letting people keep their own money.
E.Hatt-Swank on December 23, 2011 10:51 AM:
I've seen a good deal of liberal commentary predicting that Round Two of the payroll tax fight will be worse, but I'm just not seeing it. I think in this instance the fact that most voters don't obsess over inside-D.C. details will work to our advantage (for once). Usually the Republicans are very good at playing on the fact that most folks aren't paying much attention to the ins and outs -- so their simple slogans and repetitive talking points help to turn people against policies they might otherwise really like (e.g. Obamacare) - while Dems go on the defensive, trying to complicate things by explaining details that many people just don't want to hear.
But now it seems reversed. Nobody cares about conference committees and the like -- but it's crystal clear to the average Joe who doesn't read Washington Monthly (and doesn't get all his info from Bill O'Reilly) that a) the GOP will fight tooth & nail to protect tax cuts for billionaires; and b) won't do anything to protect tax cuts for ordinary people. Simple and also true. And in two months the same dynamic will be in place. Hopefully we can keep the message straightforward and simple.
bdop4 on December 23, 2011 11:18 AM:
It's just surreal that all this melodrama is over Democrats fighting FOR a tax cut which doesn't do all that much to help the economy. Plus it prevents the more important fight over how to fund projects that actually will turn the economy around.
When's that going to happen in the short months leading to November? Answer: It isn't.
DisgustedWithItAll on December 23, 2011 12:28 PM:
Dems ought to insist, AGAIN, that the thing be paid for -- if indeed, the Repubnantcans demand it be paid for -- by the millionaire surtax. Again, and again, and again, and again, .....
TCinLA on December 23, 2011 1:17 PM:
But another possibility is that House Republicans are furious at having been forced to buckle this time, and their takeaway is that, next time, they need a better strategy, and they need to make sure Mitch McConnell and John Boehner are on the same page. In that case, the next extension will be an even heavier lift.
And given that Reid has already washed and ironed his white flag of surrender by nominating Baucus & Company as Senatorial negotiators of the surrender. Just look at the list and ask yourself if any of those assholes and dickwads masquerading as Democrats inspire any confidence that they aren't going to give in. The capper will be when we see the "good faith negotiators" that Confederate traitor McConnell names. The story writes itself now: Democrats surrender and the Good Emperor reluctantly signs the act of treason. And we're stuck with supporting them since they're only awful instead of terrible.
Welcome to 2012, where the Democrats snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Dr Cheese in WI on December 23, 2011 2:37 PM:
I like the spirit of "Disgusted with it all" suggestion of having the Democrats reneging, bit I would renege on another element. I would renege to taking the surtax on million/billionaires off the table as a way to pay for the tax cut. Make the GOP have to go after that issue again in negotiations, just to drive home the point of whose side are they on.
liam fooe on December 23, 2011 3:48 PM:
Several things to consider:
The TP'er fringe in the House are neither reasonable nor rational. They will learn nothing from these event. There is a chance that they will take sufficient heat from constituents over the break to change their ways, but I wouldn't count on it.
As some have noted, Dems compromised on the surtax and on the pipeline, so it seems critical to now bring the surtax back to the table with debate mainly featuring (1) Dems promoting the richest paying their share and (2) GOP refusing to consider the possibility.
Recall that Mr. Obama agreed to ransom the unemployed hostages in 2010 by extending the Bush tax cuts. It is likely that the GOP will seek extension of those cuts as a variable. Like many others I trust that Mr. Obama will stick to his vow to never extend them again.
The 2012 elections may simply come down to whether or not voters believe the "raising taxes on job creators" nonsense or not. Call it class warfare or whatever, but the line is drawn on rich paying their share.
jhm on December 24, 2011 7:34 AM:
How public are these conference sessions going to be?