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With the South Carolina primary having come and gone, leaving us with a surprisingly competitive nomination fight, the stakes in Florida’s Republican presidential primary have reached new heights. A Romney win in the Sunshine State would restore his frontrunner status; a Gingrich victory in Florida would set the stage for a wide-open fight heading into Super Tuesday.
With about nine days to go — the primary is a week from Tuesday — Romney already has some major advantages.
He has led all recent polling in Florida. Between Romney’s campaign and the super PAC supporting him, nearly $7 million has already been spent on television ads aiding the former Massachusetts governor, according to a source. The other candidates have spent almost nothing.
What’s more, Florida voters have been able to vote by absentee ballot since well before Gingrich’s numbers spiked, likely giving an edge to Romney and his get-out-the-vote operation. Republican Party of Florida spokesman Brian Hughes said that 197,271 early and absentee ballots had been cast as of Saturday morning.
Because Romney has enjoyed such a considerable financial edge, his campaign has been able to focus heavily on Florida’s early-voting process and building a strong on-the-ground operation. Much of this was ongoing behind the scenes — while the larger focus was on New Hampshire and South Carolina, Romney staffers were already picking up absentee votes in Florida, giving them a lead before the other campaigns were even trying.
What’s more, money is nearly always the key to competing in the state — because Florida is massive, with a large population and several expensive media markets, the candidate who spends the most tends to do the best.
Then again, Romney looked like the heavy favorite in South Carolina nine days before its primary, too, so we should know better than to start making too many assumptions.
What can Gingrich do to excel over the next nine days? For one thing, it’s time again to keep an eye on the debates — there will be two in Florida this week, and all of the candidates will participate, Romney’s initial balks notwithstanding.
For another keep an eye on some key constituencies, most notably seniors and Hispanic voters. Gingrich has enjoyed considerable support from the former, Romney has taken a variety of steps to alienate the latter, and both are likely to matter quite a bit in Florida between now and Jan. 31.
And finally, keep an eye on Gingrich’s finances. The disgraced former House Speaker benefited in South Carolina from Super PAC support, financed in large part by Sheldon Adelson. Will the far-right casino mogul write an eight-figure check for Florida? It might very well make the difference between winning and losing.
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Barry R on January 22, 2012 9:56 AM:
People have to stop calling Romney the "front runner". This was something the media just decided. He never was the front runner. No poll ever made him the front runner. He was just one of a number of candidates. Still is.
T2 on January 22, 2012 10:10 AM:
As I've said often, if the GOP liked the idea of Romney being president, they'd have picked him in 2008 instead of a mean guy that nobody liked.....sound familiar? With ample funding from the Mormon Church this time, Mitt is simply trying to buy the nomination. But it's hard to sell a product that nobody wants.
walt on January 22, 2012 10:13 AM:
I suspect Romney will rebound in Florida if only because Newt cannot withstand the most basic kind of scrutiny. Moreover, unless there are there are more crazy billionaires out there willing to bankroll Newt, he's going to have money problems. Romney will likely own the airwaves. Still, there's a problem for the presumptive nominee: the media. They've been rather deferential up until now but Mitt the Robot has suddenly become a topic of obsessive inquiry. Memes are beginning to take root: Mitt is out of touch. Mitt has a tin ear. Mitt is more aristocrat than street fighter. Mitt tells unnecessary lies. By themselves, these memes won't kill his candidacy. But they will help create a low ceiling for his favorability rating. Contrast to a loose and relaxed Obama, and Mitt starts to look like a joke.
stormskies on January 22, 2012 10:13 AM:
And finally, keep an eye on Gingrich’s finances. The disgraced former House Speaker benefited in South Carolina from Super PAC support, financed in large part by Sheldon Adelson. Will the far-right casino mogul write an eight-figure check for Florida? It might very well make the difference between winning and losing.
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And the difference between Sheldon Adelson and the 'money changers' is ancient Jerusalem is exactly what ? And this is what all those self proclaimed pious evangelical Christians will vote for in the form of Gingrich ?
MuddyLee on January 22, 2012 10:15 AM:
Romney - Bain Capital, Cayman Islands. Newt - financed by casino money. This is crazy. We need real business in America - maybe Santorum's idea about "subsidizing" manufacturing jobs is worthy of consideration.
Hedda Peraz on January 22, 2012 10:17 AM:
We are being offered a Hobson's Choice this time:
Nominate "Jimmy Carter" or settle for "Barry Goldwater".
I'll leave it to you libs to decide which is which.
Phalamir on January 22, 2012 10:19 AM:
Yeas, he has been the front runner. While his numbers have been anemic compared to what was expected, he has consistently held onto the lead (excepting some of the short-lived spikes from the Chuckle-Hut crowd). And his anemic numbers have been fairly consistent over that time, not wildly fluctuating like others. He hasn't been running away with the race, but he's been the guy out in front, not just one of a statistically-even pack. His crappy numbers have always meant his lead was tenuous as people dropped out, but he's still the front-runner (or was until last night) - we have to see if the Second Wind of Fatty Lumpkin is real or just the Battle of the Bulge*.
* BTW, how does Gingrich get so much action? His self-love is so ginormous that it is hard to see how anyone could be charmed by that. Not to mention, he seems more the masturbatory type, since obviously no one could meet the sexual skills he himself brings to the party
bob h on January 22, 2012 10:29 AM:
The most comical thing I have heard in awhile is Romney attempting to speak Spanish to Florida Latins. He must have great contempt for their intelligence.
Just two years' tax returns? Presumably these are the ones that have been tidied up. They will not quell the demand for more.
jd-Central Florida on January 22, 2012 10:38 AM:
If Newt is relying on casino money--if Adelson writes another huge check--he steps into an ongoing controversy in Florida.
A bill in the Republican legislature would set up destination-casino gambling, turning Miami into Las Vegas. The person behind this is a billionaire Malaysian gambling entrepreneur. The scheme is being bitterly fought by Disney and by the state chamber of commerce. The initial proposal (now amended) mentioned several unnamed sites beyond Miami, doubtless including Orlando.
Factor into the political contest the Miami Cubans (somewhat alienated by Romney, though they are rather disliked in much of the state) and the proximity of the Cayman Islands. . .
The brief campaign will be bitter and nasty. Whether Newt has any money to spend in 5 major media markets is a big question. My guess is that Romney will take it, but not by much.
JoeW on January 22, 2012 11:03 AM:
I wonder if Florida's older voters will be as forgiving of Newt's indiscretions, and the almost sociopathic way he casts off his exes. At the same time, I wonder how long Newt's 'HOW DARE YOU ASK ME THAT?!?!' shtick can hold up before even the GOP base comes to see that he can be unhinged by things he does not want to hear.
artsmith on January 22, 2012 11:04 AM:
The Malaysian connection is "verrrry interesting!" I have to presume the average casino owner is smarter than Tom DeLay, but how difficult would it be for the Malaysian (foreign) interests to funnel money to the US casino operators to bankroll Newt?
And on a poly-sci tangent, has anyone studied the correlation between money spent and placement in Florida?
sgetti on January 22, 2012 11:29 AM:
Two years of tax statements will only stir up more conspiracy-minded rhetoric from the Gingrich team and probably some pundits. Doesn't look like a good week for Romney. Besides, when the rich kid gets his nose bloodied, no one feels sorry.
SKM on January 22, 2012 12:09 PM:
I think the only way Willard wins Florida is if the vote is rigged. With Disney, I think I heard something about his company buying Disney or at least a big stake in it.
It would be something if everyone is duped, and Ron Paul carries this state. It would then be 4 races, and 4 winners.
But, I think it will be either Santorum or Gingrich, with a large Latino population, most are (not all) Catholics. Then most of the other people are christian, or Muslims, or from some other religious background.
Yeah. It would be nice if Ron Paul wins. I would love to see the 'super-duper pacs,' lose their money, since they are 'so smart,' and knows what everyone wants.
chopin on January 22, 2012 12:13 PM:
Wouldn't it be cool if Willard is having his tax preparers file amended returns for the last couple of years right now? And wouldn't it be cool if in their rush they accidentally adjusted something that ended up raising eyebrows in the IRS? And wouldn't it be cool if some enterprising IRS auditor looked deeper and found felonious behavior? And wouldn't it be cool if this led to the investigation of Bain and its officers and subsequent jail time for them as well as their tax advisors and lawyers?
mmm on January 22, 2012 12:14 PM:
Somehow I don't think President Newt and the third lady are going to play in Peoria. Maybe SNL, but not Peoria.
jd-Central Florida on January 22, 2012 12:48 PM:
Hey, we haven't gotten to more than a superficial look at Newt's tax returns yet! What fun to see how much money a "historian" can pull down, and from what/whom?
exlibra on January 22, 2012 3:20 PM:
And don't forget that, unlike the previous three, the Fla primary is the old style, "winner takes all", when it comes to electors/delegates. So, if the vote is anywhere near to "close", they'll be counting, and counting, and recounting, because there's a lot at stake (Fla being large and having lots to win/lose)
"essded he". Yes, but *which one*?
Melchor on January 22, 2012 5:49 PM:
There is a lot of talk among the political pendents that dismisses Ron Paul's chances. That his ceiling is too low to win the nomination or in the general. I am beginning to see Mitt the same way. I mean, who really likes him? The Tea Party folks hate him, Conservatives are lukewarm, RomneyCare has to condemn him in the eyes of those who hate ObamaCare, So other than the Republican business elites, who is really supporting him. The way I see it, if Ron Paul had the organizational and financial support Romeny has, would probably be pulling the same poll numbers.
beejeez on January 23, 2012 1:26 AM:
Assuming no major shakeups, I think it's denying reality to think Mitt isn't going to carry all the Northeast primaries plus Illinois, Wisc., Minn. and Mich. I'll bet Ohio is competitive. But Mitt's going to get crushed everywhere in Dixie but Florida, and Florida is no gimme putt. The prairies are up for grabs, but the Mexico border states are a tricky call. Ordinarily, I'd say Newt has the edge. But Romney is doing his best to push an anti-immigrant line that'd play well in Cali, Ariz., and N.M., though I can't see Texans even considering a Massachusetts fancy boy. So is Mitt the front-runner? Probably -- those eastern and upper Midwest states will build some Mittmentum fo sho until Super Tuesday lands a haymaker on his glass chin. But his lead is an eyelash and could change with one bad news day. Newt, however, is impervious to bad news days. If you're even considering him, you've already shown there's nothing he can do to alienate you.
bob h on January 23, 2012 7:06 AM:
The fate of the Western world hinges on what Sheldon Adelson decides to do with his checkbook. That's how fucked up our politics is.