If there was one predictable outcome of the whole Mark Foley episode, it was that Democrats were certain to pick up his seat. State law prevented Foley's removal from the ballot, and just last week a Florida court enjoined poll workers from posting signs instructing voters that ballots cast for the disgraced congressman would be transferred to Republican Joe Negron.
A story in today's Palm Beach Post suggests it won't be as easy as Democrats had hoped.
Early voting began yesterday, and Republican voters seem very aware that they should select Foley if they really want Negron. Jeb Bush has written a letter to voters explaining the issue, and Republican activists have been standing outside polling places distributing fliers to the same effect. "We wouldn't have voted for him if we thought it counted for Mark Foley," said one voter. "But Republicans are spreading the word." These efforts, no doubt, will ramp up as Election Day approaches, and with the GOP willing to spend $1 million to hold on to this traditionally Republican district, it looks like its going to be down to the wire. Stay tuned.
—Avi Klein 2:56 PM
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