Everybody Wants a Number...Democrats need 15 seats to take the House. How many will they get? Glad you asked...

Forty-one.

Over at Slate, two guys have been tracking House races using publicly available, nonpartisan polling. The page is filled top to bottom with good news for Democrats. In many of the races, the Democratic lead is within the margin of error, which scares pundits away from making firm predictions. But if every candidate who has a lead now—even a slim one, within the margin of error—wins, Democrats will pick up 30 seats (if you count Tom DeLay’s, for which Slate has no polling).

Another eleven seats are either tied or the Republican has a slight edge. If a massive wave breaks, all of those could come crashing the Democrats’ way.

Below is a list of Republicans who may be out of a job pretty soon. The ones in parentheses are retiring (or resigned or indicted) members whose replacement is losing.

Republicans Losing

Incumbent: Rick Renzi-R
Open Race—R (Jim Kolbe)
Incumbent: Richard Pombo-R
Open Race—R (Bob Beauprez)
Incumbent: Christopher Shays-R
Incumbent: Nancy Johnson-R
Open Race—R (Katherine Harris)
Open Race—R (Mark Foley)
Open Race—R (Henry Hyde)
Incumbent: Chris Chocola-R
Incumbent: John Hostettler-R
Incumbent: Mike Sodrel-R
Open Race—R (Jim Nussle)
Incumbent: Jim Leach-R
Incumbent: Mark Kennedy-R
Incumbent: Charlie Bass-R
Incumbent: Heather Wilson-R
Open Race—R (Sherwood Boehlert)
Incumbent: Tom Reynolds-R
Incumbent: Robin Hayes-R
Incumbent: Charles Taylor-R
Incumbent: Jean Schmidt-R
Incumbent: Deborah Pryce-R
Open Race—R (Bob Ney)
Incumbent: Jim Gerlach-R
Incumbent: Curt Weldon-R
Incumbent: Mike Fitzpatrick-R
Incumbent: Don Sherwood-R
Open Race—R (Tom Delay)
Open Race—R (Mark Green)

Tied

Incumbent: Steve Chabot-R

Republicans Winning Within the Margin of Error

Incumbent: Mark Kirk-R
Incumbent: Anne Northup-R
Incumbent: Geoff Davis-R
Incumbent Gil Gutknecht-R
Incumbent: Peter King-R
Incumbent: John Sweeney-R
Incumbent: Randy Kuhl-R
Incumbent: Thelma Drake-R
Incumbent: Frank Wolf-R
Incumbent: Dave Reichert-R