A Steele Steal…This is very, very bad for Democrats. A significant group of black Prince George’s County Democratic leaders have endorsed Republican Michael Steele, who is also black. But that’s not why they endorsed him. The Democrat, Ben Cardin, is seen to have taken the county—rich with Democratic votes—for granted. Plus, he’s just an awfully bad, boring campaigner. The conventional wisdom in Washington is that the Maryland senate race is not in play, but I’m not so sure…

In 2002, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend proved it’s not impossible for a Democrat to lose statewide by getting smoked in her race for governor against Republican Bob Ehrlich. The way a Democrat wins in Maryland is by taking Prince George’s County, Montgomery County, and Baltimore by wide margins, while not getting beaten too badly in the rural areas. If Cardin doesn’t crush Steele in Prince George’s, where Steele has been campaigning ferociously, he’s in serious trouble.

Strangely, though, Cardin may make up some of that loss in rural areas where some voters don’t want to cast a ballot for a black guy. The presence of Green Party candidate Kevin Zeese could help Cardin here: Instead of being forced to back a Democrat, these hardcore red voters can go for Zeese, who is also a candidate of the Libertarian Party and Populist Party.

Polls currently have Cardin up by about 10 points, but polls also showed Cardin with a similar lead against Kweisi Mfume going into election day of the Democratic primary. After massively outspending Mfume, Cardin managed to win by only three points. He just doesn’t come across as a fun guy to vote for and it seems a bunch of Democrats couldn’t bring themselves to do it. If that happens again on November 7, look for a shockingly close race in Maryland.

And if Steele is able to win, he has the type of personality that could make him a fixture in the senate, depriving Democrats for several terms of a seat that—at least by voter registration numbers—should be theirs.