The Rove Machine…All indications are that Republicans will be swept out of the House a week from today. Yet many Democrats are afraid to start dancing in the endzone for one reason: Karl Rove. The fear and fascination associated with this guy was highlighted yesterday in this Washington Post story which asks the question: Why is Rove so confident? Is he bluffing? Insane? Or does he know something nobody else does?

I sat through a panel discussion on the Hill today about the midterm election, and the answer is in:

He’s bluffing.

Rove’s defense of his optimism comes down to his heralded 72-hour, get-out-the-vote operation, which is supposedly miles superior to that of Democrats. At the panel talk, though, Mark Mellman, a campaign consultant with Democratic ties, pointed out that this claim of superiority is not based on any actual evidence.

Pundits—and Republican GOTV operatives—often point to Ohio as the crowning achievement of Rove’s on-the-ground genius. But look at the numbers, said Mellman. Between 2000 and 2004, Republican turnout increased in Ohio by 6 points. Nice work, Karl. But Democratic turnout went up 8 points.

So let’s recap Rove’s logic: Republicans, who are trailing by anywhere from a few to ten points, will make up all of this ground and then some based on a 72-hour ground game that hasn’t actually been shown to work better than what the Democrats have to offer.

Turnout’s important, but major studies have shown that turnout operations don’t have an impact of much more than 2.5 to 3 percent. (The increase in Ohio and other states, which was higher than that range, was a combination of more effective turnout efforts, population increase, and increased interest in the 2004 race.) And for the fun of it, let’s grant that Rove’s Election Day machine is twice as effective as the Democrats'. In that scenario, Republicans get a bump of 3 points and Democrats a bump of a point and a half—hardly enough of a plug to keep the levy from breaking.