Poll By Poll, No Tightening...True, if Democrats aren’t nervous going into this election, then they’re blessed with no memory whatsoever. But whatever should be taken from a tightening in voters’ generic opinion of who they prefer to run congress, it’s worth remembering that we have individual polls to look at as well. And those don’t show a similar tightening.
Last week, I looked at Slate’s roundup of all available polling and found 41 races either extremely close or with Democrats leading. In 30 of those, Democrats had a slight lead, sometimes within the margin of error…
As of today, Democrats are leading by a lot or a little in 31 races where Republicans currently hold the seat. They’re either tied or within striking distance in more than 10 others.
The turnaround from two years ago is striking in some races. Republican Charlie Bass of New Hampshire, who beat Democrat Paul Hodes in 2004 by a full 20 points, is now trailing Hodes. New York’s Tom Reynolds makes that collapse look slight. In 2004 he beat Jack Davis by 12 points. The last two polls have the Republican down by 15 and 16 points.
—Ryan Grim 11:52 AM
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