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November 7, 2006
 by Zachary Roth
Zachary Roth

GET YOUR SENATE EXIT POLL NUMBERS HERE... From a Democratic Senate staffer who's seen them:

Dem leads:
VA: 52-47
RI: 53-46
PA: 57-42
OH: 57-43
NJ: 52-45
MT: 53-46
MO: 50-48
MD: 53-46

GOPer leads:
TN: 51-48
AZ: 50-46

Grain. Salt. etc.

Zachary Roth 6:10 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (35)
 
Comments

why do Americans hate America?

Posted by: mister pedantic on November 7, 2006 at 6:24 PM | PERMALINK

posting the polls three times over wont make them more accurate. More nails to bite.

Posted by: troglodyte on November 7, 2006 at 6:24 PM | PERMALINK

I still think there's a good chance in TN.

Posted by: paradox on November 7, 2006 at 6:25 PM | PERMALINK

Liebramn becomes the new SecDef.

50-50!

Posted by: gregor on November 7, 2006 at 6:30 PM | PERMALINK

Pretty sweet. If accurate.

Posted by: Patrick on November 7, 2006 at 6:30 PM | PERMALINK

The reporting here and at TNR is a little breathless even though people are saying "grain of salt" and all that.

Basically, the exit polls two years ago said Kerry was whupping up, and they turned out to be wrong. This suggests there may be some systematic pro-Dem bias to exit polls (for example, maybe people vote Republican but then feel guilty that they did so, so they misreport their vote).

Exit polls need to come with bigger disclaimers than they're coming with.

Posted by: mk on November 7, 2006 at 6:32 PM | PERMALINK

Is that "Dem lead" in RI 53-46 Lamont-Lieberman?

Posted by: California on November 7, 2006 at 6:34 PM | PERMALINK

Even though Pederson ran a pretty good campaign in AZ, he had a very difficult job trying to beat Kyle.

My feeling is Pederson did not bring out the anti-war commercials soon enough. He should have made Iraq and Kyle's support for Bush's War his number one issue.

Posted by: Hostile on November 7, 2006 at 6:35 PM | PERMALINK
This suggests there may be some systematic pro-Dem bias to exit polls

Or, alternatively, systematically anti-Dem bias to the systems and processes that produced the official tallies.

Posted by: California on November 7, 2006 at 6:36 PM | PERMALINK

Lieberman wouldn't leave the Senate - 6 year term, option of running for president as indy, fawned over in close to even Senate - for the loser position as Rumsfeld's successor, which will be at most a 2 year job

Posted by: hopeless pedant on November 7, 2006 at 6:38 PM | PERMALINK

"Is that "Dem lead" in RI 53-46 Lamont-Lieberman?"

Hope not since neither is running in RI.

Posted by: Davebo on November 7, 2006 at 6:39 PM | PERMALINK

Only if Harold Ford could beat the racist Bob Corky. It looks pretty certain that Little Ricky has lost to Casey, Jr.! Hey Ricky - don't let the door hit you in the rear end!

Posted by: pgl on November 7, 2006 at 6:46 PM | PERMALINK

Leiberman is running in CT. I think it's Whitehouse-Chafee in RI.

Posted by: ExBrit on November 7, 2006 at 6:47 PM | PERMALINK

Good riddence to Chafee anyways.

Posted by: Chuck on November 7, 2006 at 6:50 PM | PERMALINK

TNR is reporting Lamont ahead of Lieberman.

Posted by: Ruck on November 7, 2006 at 6:50 PM | PERMALINK

When will we see the Lamont/Liarman exit polls?

Posted by: Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on November 7, 2006 at 6:50 PM | PERMALINK

Chris,

Can you change your name from "California" back to "cmdicely"?

Posted by: Chuck on November 7, 2006 at 6:51 PM | PERMALINK

Serious? That's awesome, if the CT results hold up.

Posted by: Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on November 7, 2006 at 6:52 PM | PERMALINK

Ruck,

Absentee ballots, not counted in exit polls, will push Joe Lieberman over the top.

Posted by: Chuck on November 7, 2006 at 6:53 PM | PERMALINK

Ignore the fake Chuck at 6:50pm.

Posted by: Chuck on November 7, 2006 at 7:04 PM | PERMALINK

Maybe, but I was just answering the man's question.

The lead was posted on TNR an hour or so ago, and it had Lamont ahead by about 3 points. I haven't seen anything else on it since.

Posted by: Ruck on November 7, 2006 at 7:07 PM | PERMALINK

My initial reaction is that it looks like the fix is in. I don't recall the early returns from 2002, but 2000 and 2004 showed early Dem leads, which set up the storyline as a dramatic come-from-behind win for the GOP. Let's hope my tinfoil hat isn't calibrated correctly this time around.

Posted by: gorillagogo on November 7, 2006 at 7:08 PM | PERMALINK

I haven't left Arizona during the entire race.

Peder who? I don't watch TV Jim, and you never ran anywhere else. I can't recall a single ad of yours on aaphx.

Literally had no idea of what you even looked like. Today I saw your face on the azcentral website -- I swear, at first I thought I was looking at Gerald Ford.

Next time, please don't assume you don't need the help of the people.

Posted by: jerry on November 7, 2006 at 7:10 PM | PERMALINK

Why is Washington Monthly running so slowly? Is it because of all these minute-by-minute blog posts at SHOWDOWN '06? Seems silly to me like STORMWATCH for the first drop of the season.

Posted by: Chuck on November 7, 2006 at 7:12 PM | PERMALINK

I would guess WM is running slowly b/c with the first exit poll results, everyone is sending this link to everyone and his brother.

Posted by: Andy on November 7, 2006 at 7:15 PM | PERMALINK

Let's hope in a few hours we'll be able to go from "grain. salt." to "tequila. lime. salt. fiesta"! Go dems go!

Posted by: observer on November 7, 2006 at 7:17 PM | PERMALINK

Why is Washington Monthly running so slowly?
Posted by: Chuck on November 7, 2006 at 7:12 PM

Maybe it can't keep up with all your posts, son. Your incessant and juvenile monopolization of WM bandwidth is rather ugly. And I'm wearing out my fucking mousewheel scrolling past your immature blather. Go take a nap, son. Preferably a dirt nap.

Posted by: Mad Dog Dave on November 7, 2006 at 7:36 PM | PERMALINK

Ooops, the above two from "California" were from me. Didn't change the name back from a joke over on the main site.

Posted by: cmdicely on November 7, 2006 at 7:38 PM | PERMALINK
Leiberman is running in CT

Duh. My brain is fried today.

Posted by: cmdicely on November 7, 2006 at 7:39 PM | PERMALINK
Why is Washington Monthly running so slowly? Is it because of all these minute-by-minute blog posts at SHOWDOWN '06? Seems silly to me like STORMWATCH for the first drop of the season.

Perhaps your incessant insertion of this same exact comment on every post has something to do with it.

Posted by: Edo on November 7, 2006 at 7:48 PM | PERMALINK

Sweet.

The idiot deWine is out as is Santorum as per MSNBC.

Posted by: gregor on November 7, 2006 at 8:50 PM | PERMALINK

My sister and brother-in-law live in Arizona. For Jon Kyl to even have to face a serious challenge for his Senate seat shows how much the GOP has slumped this year.

And, where ARE CT numbers? What's Lieberman/Lamont shaping up as?

Posted by: SocraticGadfly on November 7, 2006 at 9:17 PM | PERMALINK

With only 3% reporting it's Lamont 41%- Lieberman 48%.

Posted by: TPM on November 7, 2006 at 9:30 PM | PERMALINK

In answer to 'mister pedantic': "why do Americans hate America?"

Since Republicans do not count Dems as 'real' Americans, I must presuppose that such a question pivots around the notion that Republicans hate themselves. Why do Republicans hate themselves? Because, well,.. Republicans are hateful.

After all, Republicans endorse:
- torture;
- suspension of habeas corpus;
- war on science;
- dissolution of separation of church and state;
- an illegal and unjust war in Iraq.

And Republicans oppose:
- holding the President accountable for having lied to the American people about WMD;
- impeaching the President for willful failure to uphold the Constitution of the United Sates;
- bringing the President to justice for high treason in his complicity together with his Dick and his father, his Floridian brother, a cousin, and with Mr. Silverstein, and others, in the 9-11 attacks on the WTC and the subsequent demolitions of WTC's towers 1 & 2 and building seven causing the mass murder of almost three thousand innocent human beings...

...surely, you get the picture.

Frankly, if I were a Republican, I'd hate myself, too.

Posted by: mister frankly on November 7, 2006 at 11:48 PM | PERMALINK

The people who developed exit polls refined their science until they were very accurate. They were able to adjust for all manner of things like unreporting by some groups. Then recent elections the polls were found to be very wrong in key areas with republican control of the election process. The US (yes Bush administration) used exit polls paid for by the US to declare a recent election in the Ukraine a fraud. If we used the same criteria here that we used in the Ukraine Bush would not be president. I suspect corporate media is keeping the results from us to avoid drawing attention to fraud.

Posted by: pdxmc on November 8, 2006 at 12:03 AM | PERMALINK




 
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