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November 9, 2006
 by Christina Larson
Christina Larson

THE NEW MAP ... Forget Red vs. Blue; Urban vs. Rural; Base vs. Swing; Upside-down vs. Inside-out. At a press conference yesterday, Hotline's Chuck Todd yesterday proposed a new way to think about the electoral map:

  • First, you've got the Blue Northeast, now largely purged of moderate Republicans. It's long been liberal; now it's liberal and partisan.

  • Next, you've got the Red South, which remains a GOP stronghold. (That said, I think Jim Webb's Virginia victory represents something interesting ... more later...)

  • Then, there's the Populist-ish Midwest. In Rust Belt states, newly victorious candidates such Sherrod Brown in Ohio and John Donnelly have been campaigning with labor unions, drumming up opposition to NAFTA and WTO -- pitchforks reminiscent of old-style prairie populism.

  • Finally, the Libertarian West. This is secular-conservative country, home to cowboys who want small but competent government. Mountain-staters have increasingly been flirting with the Democratic party, though Todd thinks Republicans have been quicker to notice (and worry, as Fred Barnes does here, re: Colorado and Arizona) than Democrats.

    Now, to fashion a durable big tent. As LBJ said, better to keep 'em inside pissing, rather than outside pissing in...

    Christina Larson 12:10 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (9)
  •  
    Comments

    The thing about Virginia is that essentially what is happening is the Northeast is expanding its borders. The DC suburbs are growing, hence Virginia becomes more in play.

    And what about the West Coast? Surely California and Utah aren't the same region? Then again, I'm not so sure California and Washington are the same region either. However, Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Maine, and New Hampshire are surprisingly politically similar in spite of their geographic dispersion. They are the most politically independent states, each with a Green streak, a Libertarian streak, leaning slightly Democratic but really outside the political mainstream of either party.

    I do wonder why we haven't put more effort into the west, though. I like the idea someone mentioned in another comment thread of having the next convention in Denver. We could really put the Republicans on the defensive in this region.

    Posted by: Eric L on November 9, 2006 at 1:13 PM | PERMALINK

    The tidal wave which hit New Hampshire, flipping houses up and down the ballot and giving the governor re-election with 3/4 of the vote, is historic. I'd be worried if my name was John Sununu Jr.

    Posted by: KevStar on November 10, 2006 at 8:39 AM | PERMALINK

    This is where the big wave hit hardest...

    From: Democratic wave washes over statehouses
    By Eric Kelderman, Stateline.org Staff Writer

    Altogether, 6,119 of the nation's 7,382 state legislative seats were on the ballot in 46 states. Going into the election, Democrats held a tiny, 21-member majority in total legislative seats nationwide, nearly an even divide between Republicans and Democrats. Now, preliminary numbers from NCSL show Democratic legislators will outnumber Republicans by 667 nationwide.

    Maybe Howard Dean should get more credit...

    Posted by: Chuck Miller on November 10, 2006 at 12:31 PM | PERMALINK

    Yeah, California, Oregon and Washington are REAL libertarian/small government strongholds that have just started flirting with Democrats.

    Hint to Mr. Todd: Mountain West =! Pacific Coast.

    Posted by: eponymous coward on November 10, 2006 at 1:32 PM | PERMALINK

    Yes, we should focus on the West. DailyKos and other Leftist sites have been saying this for 2 or 3 years. The convention should definitely be in Denver.

    Posted by: SimulatedOutrage on November 10, 2006 at 1:39 PM | PERMALINK

    Agreed. The real opportunity for the Dems is out West. Of course, they shouldn't neglect the Midwest (which I think is still the ultimate swing region, because of the type of voters there), but there are a lot of possibilities out West if the Dems play it smart.

    Posted by: Free Thinker on November 10, 2006 at 3:54 PM | PERMALINK

    I agree with Eric L. My family is from southern Virginia, but I live here in the north. Northern Virginia is just too big these days to be swamped by rural votes from the rest of the state.

    I watched Webb's victory online, and monitored the results coming in. Webb was behind by 35K votes at one point, but Northern Virginia hadn't reported in yet. I suspect that this'll happen for statewide offices more and more often.

    Posted by: Tony Shifflett on November 10, 2006 at 4:02 PM | PERMALINK

    "As LBJ said, better to keep 'em inside pissing, rather than outside pissing in..."

    'inside pissing ...'. That's a messy tent!

    I'm afraid you left out a word. The correct phrase would be 'better to keep 'em inside pissing OUT, rather than outside pissing in...'.

    Posted by: drinkof on November 10, 2006 at 7:59 PM | PERMALINK

    Webb and the Democrats won the Senate because of one word spoken by one man. I had never heard of the word before but it made me and what looks like
    about 7000 other Virginians question the integrity and intelligence of a man who would have otherwise gotten my vote. This was not about the war or taxes or anything else but only a visible crack shown in the character of an otherwise competent and well liked man.

    James 3:4-6 (New Living Translation):

    4 And (as) a small rudder makes a huge ship turn wherever the pilot chooses to go, even though the winds are strong. 5 In the same way, the tongue is a small thing that makes grand speeches. But a tiny spark can set a great forest on fire. 6 And the tongue is a flame of fire. It is a whole world of wickedness, corrupting your entire body. It can set your whole life on fire, for it is set on fire by hell itself.

    New Living Translation (NLT)
    Holy Bible. New Living Translation copyright © 1996, 2004 by Tyndale Charitable Trust. Used by permission of Tyndale House Publishers.

    Posted by: gary on November 11, 2006 at 8:03 PM | PERMALINK
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