THAT'S ALL FOLKS... The election's over, and so is this blog. We've had a lot of fun tracking the polls, campaign ads, dirty tricks, and down-to-the-wire ballot counts of the midterms here at "Showdown '06." But now that even George Allen has called it a day, it's time for us to, too.

We're shutting down the election-focused blog, but we'll be launching a new staff blog in this space soon. After all, we've got a lot to keep track of now that Democrats will be running Congress, and the prospect of real change might be just around the corner.

That's all folks.

NOTHING TO SEE HERE... There's a weird (though also, of course, familiar) refusal to make judgments in John Dickerson's Slate piece about the return of Trent Lott. I know we're all supposed to forget about the Strom Thurmond thing now, but isn't there something at least noteworthy about the fact that Senate Republicans are willing to rehabilitate a guy who said, essentially, that he'd rather be living in a segregated country? Would it be out of line to suggest that Lott's return to leadership tells us something about the priorities of Senate Republicans, and about the party more generally?

This is a line of inquiry that doesn't seem to interest Dickerson, who describes Lott's sin as a "bone-headed statement" comparable to John Kerry's recent botched joke. Instead, he spends a while relating a story about Lott and Teddy Kennedy making nice during the Clinton impeachment hearings, in the service of making the plausible case that Lott's record as a "dealmaker" could mean that he'll work productively with Democrats when it suits him. There are also the obligatory jokes about Lott's hair.

I thought the whole thing with writing for Slate, as opposed to say, Time, is that you get to express an opinion. So either Dickerson just can't bring himself to do that, or he really believes there isn't anything of interest in the return to leadership of a man who said he wished a segregationist had been elected president. Hard to say which would be worse.

SENATORS' SEATS ... Incoming senators have their committee assignments. Montana's Sen-elect Jon Tester has been tapped for the Energy committee, which ought to be a hotspot over the next two years. I'm a little disappointed, though, that the first organic farmer turned senator didn't also get a spot on the Agriculture committee; next year's Farm Bill promises to be an epic showdown among traditional ag interests, conservationists, and energy proponents -- Tester would have been welcome.

I'd been waiting to hear whether Virginia's Sen-elect Jim Webb would be tapped for Armed Services, Foreign Relations, or Veterans Affairs -- it turns out he was tapped for all three. All the more reason for the administration to hope to see Bob Gates confirmed before the New Year.

Overheard...While having a sidewalk lunch today at Talay Thai on Capitol Hill, I overheard two young, very well dressed people praying before digging into their red curry dishes. Luckily, I had my notebook. An excerpt: "Bless us as we search for new jobs."

HELLO MEL... So Mel Martinez is taking the reins at the RNC. Reporters have been quick to point out that Martinez was the author of a much-publicized memo urging Republicans to seize the political advantage presented by Terri Schiavo, and that he has some questionable connections to Jack Abramoff, via Bob Ney. It’s not all that shocking that a few skeletons lurk in his closet (this year proficiency in some kind of political skullduggery practically seems to be a requirement for consideration for the RNC gig.) What Martinez’s hire really signals is the growing alarm among some Republicans at just how badly their image among Latinos has been damaged. Martinez spent a good deal of time this year trying to persuade House Republicans not to cause a political train wreck by pushing for an excessively harsh immigration bill. Now he gets to fix up the train.

And Martinez is no slouch. Even though he wasn’t up for re-election this year, he was a prodigious fundraiser and campaigner for his colleagues, including those in the toughest races, like Rick Santorum. In other words, he seems to have a lot of energy for lost causes, which is increasingly what the GOP’s Hispanic outreach resembles these days.

HANDICAPPING HOYER AND MURTHA... Could Nancy Pelosi's announcement of support for her old friend John Murtha in his race with Steny Hoyer for majority leader give the Pennsylvanian a chance of pulling off an upset? A knowledgeable former Hoyer aide thinks it will have "some impact", but he puts Pelosi's move in the "least-she-can-do" category, and still strongly expects Hoyer to prevail.

By my source's count, Hoyer had support from 110 returning members. Over the weekend, Hoyer announced that he had the backing of 21 of the 40 new members, though my source thinks he'll have more beyond that. That gives Hoyer at least 131 members in his camp, more than enough to put him over the top.

The former Hoyer aide thinks Hoyer's hectic travel schedule -- in which he appeared on behalf of Democratic candidates in around 60 districts in the race's final 10 days -- made the difference. Hoyer, he says, "can go into the moderate districts where Jack [Murtha] can't go. [Murtha's] a pretty polarizing figure in lets say a third of the country, and the schedule reflected that."

HOYER V. MURTHA...I'm kind of ambivalent about the big Hoyer-Murtha batttle for majority leader. I'm no huge fan of Hoyer's ties to K Street and his general establishment-based political style, but, as Matt Yglesias points out, it's not as if Murtha is a whole lot more progressive. Indeed, when Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington released its annual "Most Corrupt Members of Congress" report in September, Murtha and the disgraced Reps. William Jefferson and Alan Mollohan were the only Democrats to make the list.

But I would take issue with something Ed Kilgore says in his defense of Hoyer. "It's not as though Steny has done anything to undermine House Democrats in their criticism of Bush Iraq policies," writes Ed. In fact, on the day last November when Nancy Pelosi announced her support for Murtha's call for withdrawal, Hoyer released a statement declaring, "a precipitous withdrawal of American forces in Iraq could lead to disaster, spawning a civil war, fostering a haven for terrorists and damaging our nation’s security and credibility."

Whatever you think of the merits of that stance, it's hard to argue that it didn't undermine Pelosi and Murtha's position.

UPDATE: THIS POST HAS BEEN CHANGED TO REFLECT THE FACT THAT REP. ALAN MOLLOHAN (D-W.V.) WAS INCLUDED IN CREW'S LIST OF MOST CORRUPT MEMBERS OF CONGRESS.

Today’s Post has a comprehensive rundown of the deceptive tactics outgoing Maryland governor Bob Ehrlich and prospective Republican National Committee head Michael Steele used in Maryland on election day (after witnessing them firsthand last Tuesday, I blogged about them here and here). It turns out that this wasn’t the first time Ehrlich and Steele resorted to an unsavory election-day strategy. As The New Republic reported a couple of weeks ago, in 2002 they hired residents of a DC homeless shelter and students from Bowie State University to hand out misleading literature. The story gets worse...

"About 250 recruits, drawn by the promise of free meals and a day's pay, participated in what one recruit later called a 'scam from the start.' The students didn't get their meals, and they didn't get paid. The homeless recruits also weren't paid, and, that night, the van that had taken them at dawn to Prince George's County and was supposed to transport them back to Washington, D.C. never showed up."

As far as I know, the ’06 crop of homeless recruits (this time bussed in from Philadelphia) got paid and got their rides home; I gave my number to a few of them in case they got stranded and/or ripped off, and never heard from anyone. Thankfully, Ehrlich and Steele both lost. But the Republicans still see Steele as a valuable (read: African-American) asset, and have offered him the chance to replace outgoing RNC head Ken Mehlman.

The Democrats should fight this vociferously. Though the party is rightfully afraid of being branded with the dreaded Obstructionist Democrat label, and though the GOP will doubtless cry foul at Democratic meddling, the signal sent by a Steele appointment is too malicious to ignore. They were overshadowed by the resounding Democratic “thumpin’,” but there were numerous examples of Republican election-day malfeasance. If the GOP chooses to appoint someone who took part in these tactics—which would be tantamount to endorsing them—then the party’s higher-ups should be forced to explicitly defend this decision.

Yes, there will be some self-righteous sighing from those on the right (“See? All Democrats want to do is get in the way.”), but from a cost-benefit perspective, such a move makes sense. Let the RNC call a defensive press conference explaining why they want such a sleazy figure heading up their operations. Let them explain why they approve of the practice of hiring homeless people to hand out grossly misleading literature. The Democrats do need to pick their battles, but this is one worth fighting.

-- Jesse Singal
The Washington Monthly

WHY REPUBLICANS CAN'T GOVERN FROM THE CENTER... A year ago, California Governor Arnold Schwarzeneggar was in a heap of trouble. He had tried to pass, in swaggeringly partisan fashion, four controversial ballot measures. All of them lost, and his popularity was plummeting. To right himself, the governor purged his staff, reached out to the Democratic legislature, and embraced popular center-left positions on global warming, prescription drugs, and the minimum wage. His popularity soared. Last week, he won reelection with 55 percent of the vote.

President George W. Bush also found himself in trouble last year. His Social Security privatization plan had flopped. Iraq was descending into chaos. Corruption scandals shook Congress. But rather than admitting error, moderating his tone and reaching out to his opponents, the president did the opposite. He painted critics of his war policies as terrorist appeasers, gambling that support from the GOP’s conservative base would get the party through the midterms—a strategy most congressional Republicans supported. That decision to “stay the course”—in Iraq and with the conservative Republican agenda generally--failed to forestall, and probably intensified, last week’s political bloodbath.

The midterm elections reaffirmed an old political truth: no party that veers too far from the ideological center of America can hold power for long.

That truth went into temporary abeyance after 9/11, as moderate voters, rattled by fears of terrorism, lent their support to the GOP despite their discomfort with the party’s hard-right views (for several years poll after poll has shown that voters support Democratic positions over Republican ones on most major issues, from health care to the environment). But that willing suspension of disbelief vanished once voters came to see the administration’s incompetent management of the Iraq war as itself a major threat to national security.

Why the president chose defiance over accommodation—why, for instance, he fired Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld after the election rather than before—is a question for historians. Instead, let’s look forward. If the president wants to salvage what’s left of his administration, and congressional Republicans want to rebuild their tarnished image, their best hope is to follow Schwarzeneggar’s example: tack towards the center, work with Democrats, and put their stamp on substantive, popular initiatives.

Yet there is no reason to expect they will do so anytime soon. That’s because the conservative ascendancy, which began with Ronald Reagan in 1980 and ended last week, has left a legacy of habits, convictions, and institutions that will guide Republican behavior in Washington long after that behavior has stopped making political sense.

Consider two back-to-back speeches by the president last week. On Wednesday, in what establishment Washington took to be a bold concessionary move, Bush nominated as Rumsfeld’s replacement Robert Gates, his father’s former CIA director. Gates is a member of the foreign policy “realist” school that has been highly critical of the decision to invade Iraq. Yet the very next day in the Rose Garden the president urged the lame duck Congress to approve the nomination of UN Ambassador John Bolton, a divisive figure championed by neoconservatives whom Democrats and some moderate Republicans refused to confirm last year (Bush gave Bolton the job anyway with a recess appointment which will expire when Congress adjourns this year). The president also called on Congress to pass legislation retroactively authorizing his warrantless domestic surveillance program, a bill opposed by most Democrats. Bush made these remarks almost immediately after a lunch meeting with Speaker-to-be Nancy Pelosi in which the two purportedly vowed to work together in a bipartisan manner. These were not the moves of a White House interested in fundamentally changing course, but one still intent on using every bit of power it has to forward an ideologically conservative agenda.

All over DC last week, Republicans dismissed the notion that an ideological course correction is in order. At an event at the National Press Club, American Conservative Union Chairman David Keene argued that the elections were a referendum not on conservative ideology but on “the performance of Republicans in the White House and the Congress.” In fact, what really hurt the GOP, Keene said, was its deviation from conservative principles such as smaller government (as if Republicans might have endeared themselves to voters by cutting popular spending programs). At another post-election conference at the conservative Heritage Foundation, majority whip Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO) made a similar point. “Our ideas didn’t get beat,” Blunt declared, “we did.”

Asked what his party’s legislative priorities would be in the new Congress, Blunt rattled off a list of obscure conservative agenda items, such as time limits on consent decrees to rein in activist judges and “loser pays” rules for plaintiffs in religious expression lawsuits. These are controversial measures Republicans couldn’t pass when they controlled the House. They stand about zero chance of going anywhere in a Democratic-controlled chamber. That Blunt, the House Republican’s likely number two man next year, listed them as some of his party’s top agenda items tells you how far GOP lawmakers are from moderating their views.

Republicans may have taken what the president called “a thumping” in the midterms. But the pattern of those losses may ironically move the party even more to the right. Voters punished all manner of Republicans last week. In the Senate, for instance, conservatives like George Allen, Rick Santorum and Jim Talent were unseated, as was the moderate Mike Dewine and the moderate-to-liberal Lincoln Chaffee. But moderates were a distinct minority in both chambers before the election, and they lacked much if any clout, especially in the House. Now with their numbers even fewer, their voice within the caucus will be vanishingly small. “On a policy and political level, these results present a real challenge to the Republican Party,” wrote moderate Rep. Mike Castle (R-Del.): “The majority of the American people are centrists — and our party lost many seats because the party was not in touch with what the American people care about.”

And what about the Democrats? Can they govern in a way that appeals to voters in the middle? True, the new Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, represents liberal San Francisco, and many of the veteran lawmakers expected to assume chairmanships are old liberal lions, from Ted Kennedy in the Senate to John Conyers in the House.

But unlike the GOP, the Democratic Party has a hefty contingent of moderates, some of them in major leadership positions—think Rahm Emanuel and Steny Hoyer in the House, Harry Reid and Hillary Clinton in the Senate. Indeed, centrist former Clinton administration officials dominate the establishment political class in Washington---a source of continuing heartburn to more-progressive Democrats around the country.

The new class of freshmen Democrats will certainly be made up of quite a few liberal-progressives, like the economic populist Sherrod Brown of Ohio and former social worker Carol Shea-Porter of New Hampshire. But it will also include an array of moderate to conservative members, from Claire McCaskell of Missouri to former Redskins quarterback Heath Shuler of North Carolina. The tension between the moderate and progressive wings of the Democratic Party will be among the more interesting dramas to watch over the next two years.

But 12 years in the minority have made Democrats of all stripes less ideologically finicky, more pragmatic, hungrier to win. They know they have won only the temporary support of moderate America, that they have not yet closed the sale, and that they must if they want to keep their newfound power.

Republicans, on the other hand, are moving in the other direction. Like Bush this past summer, they are digging in, hugging the old certainties, refusing to even contemplate a more moderate course. The longer they remain in denial, the more the Democrats will have a chance to solidify their hold on the middle, where power resides.

[Note: A version of this article appeared in Sunday's San Jose Mercury News]

Washington has been chewing over election-related numbers for three straight days now, and I’d like to highlight one particular set of data that’s probably giving Karl Rove a nasty case of indigestion: the effect of the immigration debate on the midterm results.

A few months ago, most House Republicans thought that border security would be, as Rep. Jeff Flake put it to me, their “magic carpet ride” to re-election. Moderate and pro-business elements within the party tried to convince them that a hard-line stance a) wouldn’t actually deliver that many votes, and b) would incinerate Karl Rove’s efforts to weld Latinos to a long-term Republican majority. And on both counts (as we anticipated in October) they were right.

Nearly every Republican who ran primarily on an enforcement-only platform lost. Of 15 congressional or gubernatorial races where immigration was a major issue, Democrats won 12. Even worse for Republicans, the hard-won gains made by Rove, Mehlman and Bush with Hispanic voters in 2000, 2002 and 2004 were essentially obliterated. Voting in presidential-race proportions, Latinos supported Democrats over Republicans in House races by 69-30. In Western House races, Latinos comprised 16 percent of the voters (compared to 8.5 percent nationally), and voted for Democrats in even higher proportions: 72-27, according to CNN’s exit poll.

So far, the buzz about the Hispanic vote has focused on the role immigration played in driving Latinos away from the GOP. Democrats mostly allowed Republicans to shoot themselves in the foot on this one, so you could be forgiven for thinking that they simply benefited from the misguided antics of an inflamed conservative base. But that interpretation repeats a mistake both parties have made at various times: viewing Latinos as a convenient voting bloc that can be easily manipulated without real political investment. Democrats made that mistake by not paying enough attention to the complex concerns of Latino voters in recent elections. Rove and Mehlman made it by thinking that all you need to do to lock up Latino support is run soft-focus ads about the American Dream and have the President give periodic speeches about a guest worker program, without trying very hard to actually implement one.

The reality is more complicated. It’s a quirk of the Hispanic vote that political parties don’t necessarily win Latinos with immigration policy—it’s rarely the primary factor in their voting preferences—but can easily lose Latino voters with policies that appear excessively punitive towards immigrants (which is what happened in California in the 1990s). After all, right before the election, Latinos ranked Iraq and the economy as their overriding concerns. Yesterday, NDN held a panel to read the post-election tea leaves, where an interesting point was raised: Democrats made raising the minimum wage a centerpiece of an aggressive Spanish-language advertising campaign this year, especially in Colorado and Arizona. I don’t have any hard data to support this, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Democratic gains among Latinos turned out to be a complex mix of dissatisfaction with the war, alienation from a GOP gone nativist, and, at least in some cases, receptiveness to a substantive Democratic policy proposal that directly affects many Hispanic families. (Latinos comprise nearly 20 percent of the workers who would benefit from a minimum-wage increase). Whether or not this turns out to be the case, those Democrats who actually engaged with a real concern of many Latinos took a smart step in the right direction this year.

2008 HOMETOWN HEROES ... Percent of voters in states with likely presidential candidates who think their hometown guy/gal would make a good president (data from AEI Election Watch seminar). In bold are those cases when contender's party affiliation is NOT the same as the way the state voted in 2004.

MORE ON FORD... Debra raises an interesting point about the Ford race, but it seems a bit incomplete. I'm prepared to believe that the notion that Ford dates white women could have cost him support among black women. But nowhere in the post Debra links to is there any actual statistical evidence that either A) Ford's support among black women, or B) the rate at which black women voted, were lower than what might have been expected for a black Democrat running in Tennessee. There are, I'm pretty sure, actual numbers on that stuff (anyone have them?), and I'd want to see those numbers before drawing any conclusions.

UPDATE: Thanks to the magic of the internets, those numbers turn out to be just a few clicks away. According to exit polling, Ford won 91 percent of the vote among non-white women (only 2 percent of voters were neither black nor white, so "non-white" essentially means "black" here). Non-white women made up 9 percent of the electorate, while non-white men accounted for only 6 percent. In addition, blacks as a whole went for Ford by 95 percent to five, and they made up 13 percent of the electorate.

This doesn't settle the issue, because maybe Ford could have been expected to get more than 91 percent (or maybe non-white women could have been expected to make up more than 9 percent of the electorate) were it not for the dating-white-women issue. But, looking at these numbers, it doesn't appear that a drop in support among black women, as a result of the dating issue, was a real factor in his loss.

Black Women: White Bigotry's Unindicited co-Conspiritors? As much discussion as their was around the 'jungle fever' campaign aimed at Harold Ford's supposed lust for white women, the one group which escaped scrutiny in his downfall is black women. Anyone who pays attention to black culture knows of the rift between black men and black women, most particularly highlighted by misogynist rap music and black women's low marriage rates.

Now, Booker Rising, a website for young moderate-conservative blacks highlights the obvious but mostly-overlooked point: that Ford, with his penchant for 'non partisan' dating, shall we say, may have been the straw that broke Tennessee's sisters' backs.

NOT SO FAST...Could corruption be 2006's version of "values"?

We all remember how in 2004, the immediate post-election consensus was that "moral values" issues were the key to Bush's win. But it quickly emerged that a poorly-worded exit poll quesiton had probably exaggerated the actual influence of those issues. As time went on, the values explanation was replaced by the (probably correct) view that concerns over national security were more important.

This year, a CNN exit poll showed that voters named "corruption" as their top voting issue. But at an event I just attended, sponsored by the Campaign for America's Future, Democratic uber-pollster Stan Greenberg challenged that notion. According to his polling, Iraq was far, far more important than corruption -- or any other issue. Indeed, only 28% of voters thought there were real differences betweeen their two candidates on the issue of "special interests" (Admittedly, "special interests" and corruption aren't exactly the same thing, but you get the idea.)

Don't get me wrong: Like Nick, I'd love to see Democrats make lobbying and ethics reform a priority. In fact, I'm on record arguing that doing so is crucial to sustaining a long-term majority. But the comforting conclusion that this election was about Abramoff and DeLay, rather than Iraq and Bush, may not stand up to scrutiny.

THE NEW MAP ... Forget Red vs. Blue; Urban vs. Rural; Base vs. Swing; Upside-down vs. Inside-out. At a press conference yesterday, Hotline's Chuck Todd yesterday proposed a new way to think about the electoral map:

It seems congressional staffers syill reeling from Tuesday's results have yet another sea change to look forward to: the imminent return of the five-day workweek.

APRES '06: LE DELUGE?: It looks like losing their majority may be just the beginning of the bad news facing Senate Republicans, already bracing for an even tougher fight in 2008. This morning, Roll Call lays out the bleak landscape ahead for the GOP: In two years, the party will be trying to hold on to 21 seats, while Dems will only need to defend 12. And unfortunately for Republicans, the areas where they'll be playing defense in '08 don't include any of the biggest electoral vote battlefields. (Translation: A budget-busting campaign cycle for the GOP, without the fundraising advantages of congressional control.)

As if that weren't enough to give incoming NRSC chair John Ensign an early case of the night sweats: consider that minority status may not suit many of the GOP's most secure sitting senators, from John Warner (whose replacement would need to win in increasingly purplish Virginia) to Pete Domenici and Chuck Hagel. At a minimum, it's likely at least half a dozen retirement-leaning incumbents may need to be sweet-talked into sticking around for another term.

ALL ROADS LEAD TO RAHM?... There's definitely something to Rick Perlstein's argument, over at The New Republic, that the burgeoning Rahm-worship we're seeing among much of DC's pundit class is misplaced. Emanuel, the DCCC chair, made a conscious effort to recruit Democratic candidates who would appeal culturally and stylistically to conservatives: veterans, law-enforcement types, and even an ex NFL quarterback. But, as Perlstein points out, many of Emanuel's most talked about recruits -- Tammy Duckworth, who lost both legs in Iraq -- disappointed yesterday. At the same time, some of the Democrats' surprise winners were candidates -- like Carol Shea-Porter in New Hampshire -- who were backed by the netroots, and shunned by Emanuel. Over the summer, we actually kicked around the idea of a story on exactly this emerging reality. (At the time, Heath Shuler, the ex-quarterback who won yesterday in North Carolina, was also struggling.)

But, in the time-honored tradition of opinion journalism, Perlstein leaves out a few examples that contradict his thesis. Brad Ellsworth, an Indiana sheriff backed by Emanuel, ran perhaps the most impressive campaign of any Democratic challenger, and coasted to victory. And, as Perlstein notes, some netroots-backed candidates flopped. In truth, you can pick examples to support either side of the argument. But beyond the rightness or wrongness of Emanuel's strategy, the larger point is that there's no need to set up the netroots and the Democratic establishment in opposition to each other. Many of the most successful Democratic candidates -- Tester and Webb, for example -- had strong backing both from the blogosphere and the party apparatus. And with a victory this big, surely there's enough credit to go around.

MORE PUNDITRY ... The day after an election, Washington's National Press Club resembles an ideological bazaar, with soothsayers, craftsmen, and faith healers from both parties peddling interpretations of past and future in adjacent rooms. Step across the hall, enter a different worldview.

At 10 am, for instance, Howard Dean gave a rousing talk on Democrats' opportunity to assume the mantle of national security, while in the next room two conservative powerbrokers, David Keene, chairman of the American Conservative Union, and Pat Toomey, president of the Club for Growth, surveyed hurricane damage before a more modest spattering of reporters.

Keene picked up on a theme we’d begun to hear before the election: If Republicans lost, it would be because they had abandoned core conservative principles for the sake of political expediency:

This year’s election turned out to be … a referendum on the performance of Republicans in the White House and the Congress rather than a contest between competing ideological visions. Indeed, this may have been the least ideological election in modern memory.

Alan Wolfe has written for The Washington Monthly on the difficulties of extracting "pure" conservative ideology from recent transgressions born of a disdain for government.

That said, Democrats did not win with ideology, either. They won with smart campaigns, a sweeping mantra for "change," and a slate of candidates that some strategists on the right and left have dubbed, not without reason, moderately conservative. Victorious Democrats such as Claire McCaskill, Jon Tester, Bob Casey, and Jim Webb are variously pro-military, pro-life, pro-balanced budget, and pro-gun rights. A few years ago, they might have been labeled Republican Lite, as though moderate Democrats had no legitimate claim to these issues. Now there seems to be a more fundamental (and flexible) discussion of what principles will unite the Democratic caucus in the future.

Meanwhile the Republican party faces its own, more painful, identity crisis. On the eve of the elections, Club for Growth polled 800 likely voters in 15 of the most competitive districts on the eve of the election (including 13 formerly GOP districts that went for Democrats). Two-thirds agreed with the notion that the GOP used to be the party of fiscal responsibility and limited government but was not today. By an 11-point margin, likely voters expressed greater confidence in Democrats to handle select fiscal matters responsibly. “We have lost our brand,” Toomey bemoaned.

How will these undercurrents color the hunt for a 2008 nominee, in both parties? Keene said, speaking for Republicans, that the long primaries will be about piecing together a coherent mission in the “post-Bush era.” (From his standpoint, that means a return to bedrock conservatism.) I think Democrats will also be looking for contenders to forge a common and compelling purpose, out of diverse aims and ambitions. Whether you label the new crop of Democratic congressmembers “moderately conservative,” as Keene does, or “populist pragmatic,” as Democratic pollster Celinda Lake did in another press conference, they do collectively represent something new.

The next presidential election will be the first since 1952 in which neither a sitting president nor vice president will be on the ticket. Not only is the field wide open, but the influence of some traditional interest groups may be waning. (This election cycle, for instance, the NRA went in with guns blazing for Sens. Jim Talent in Missouri and Conrad Burns in Montana -- both incumbents, both in sagebrush country, both lost.) With no clear successors, few obvious kingmakers (unless you count purely fundraising machinery), and dissimilar ideological currents in both parties, we have arrived at an interesting crossroads.

POST-ELECTION PUNDITRY...I wanted to write some more on the post-election panel event I just went to, which featured Chuck Todd of The Hotline, political analyst Charlie Cook, Dem pollster Celinda Lake, GOP pollster Ed Goeas, Bush media adviser Mark McKinnon, and Clinton White House press secretary Mike McCurry. A number of interesting though not-necessarily-connected points:

The most intriguing thing anyone said came from Goeas. He noted that, according to his numbers, the movement toward Democrats in the campaign's final weeks came not as a result of the Foley scandal, but instead after Bill Clinton's combative appearance on FOX News -- in which he lost his temper with host Chris Wallace -- a few days before Foley broke. Goeas said that his measurement for Democratic "intensity" skyrocketed after the interview, and that it seemed to act as a signal to Democrats not to back down.

What else: The big incipient GOP talking point -- that Dems won by running as conservatives -- was dismissed pretty convincingly by both Todd and Celinda Lake. Todd noted that none of the new Democratic senators could be described as Clinton-DLC types. He called politicians like Sherrod Brown and John Tester "pragmatic populists".

Todd also pointed out that all the talk of a demoralized GOP base didn't pan out. Republicans turned out at a similar rate as Democrats. The difference yesterday was independents, who voted at much higher rates than in previous midterms, and overwhelmingly favored Democrats. The only GOP Senate candidates who won independents were Kean and Chafee. Even Kyl and Ensign, who both won comfortably in Arizona and Nevada respectively, lost independents.

There was also more evidence for the notion that social issues are losing steam as GOP base motivators. Goeas said his polling had suggested that conservatives would respond to three things: terrorism, taxes, and the thought of Speaker Pelosi. No mention of gay marriage, abortion, or stem cell. What a difference two years makes.

Interestingly, one area where the GOP did better than expected was among seniors, a group they narrowly won. And Celinda Lake said she'd found that the Medicare drug benefit was actually quite popular with seniors -- it's their baby-boomer daughters, who are stuck with figuring out which indecipherable plan to enroll their parents in, that hate it.

BECAUSE WE ALL KNOW BUSH WOULD NEVER POLITICIZE THE WAR... Just came back from an interesting post-election event with Charlie Cook, Chuck Todd, and others. There was a lot to chew over, which I'll post on soon, but I had to share this first...

The prize for the most hilarious piece of GOP post-election spin delivered with a straight face goes to White House media advisor Mark McKinnon. He told the room that, in the last few hours, Republican friends have been asking why Bush didn't fire Rumsfeld last week, when it might have helped the GOP in the elections. But that's exactly why he didn't, said McKinnon. Bush believes, you see, that Iraq policy should be focused solely on what's the best policy. Politics should not be a concern. Hence, Rumsfeld stayed until today.

There was an audible snigger from the audience.

Corruption counted most…. Establishment Washington completely underestimated the role corruption would play in determining yesterday’s vote.

Check this out from CNN this morning: “But when asked which issue was extremely important to their vote, more voters said corruption and ethics in government than any other issue, including the war, according to national exit polls.” (Peter Stone, author of Heist, highlighted the trend a few weeks ago.)

Most people outside of the Beltway look at our system of campaign financing and high-stakes lobbying as a not-so-veiled form of bribery. An aberration.

The problem is that most people inside the Beltway look at it as generally acceptable behavior. And, for more than a decade, GOP chiefs, with DeLay leading the way, have seen it as not just acceptable, but the key to permanent governance.

Finally, DeLay and some of his deputies have fallen on their swords.

But yesterday shouldn't merely be seen as their obit. K Street will quickly reorganize itself around the new power structure on Capitol Hill (and, unless he ends up in jail, DeLay will enjoy his new life as a lobbyist.)

There’s an important, momentous dialogue just waiting to be had – one about who holds power in our democracy and why. It’s the kind of dialogue that gave rise to the Progressive Era and defined a whole new politics in this country.

The big question now for Democrats is will they go for it. Will they call for a virtual abolition of our sick system of influence peddling? Or will they tinker with minor reforms that voters neither understand nor, rightly, think will have any genuine effect in the long run? It seems as if the public is more in the mood for abolition than tinkering.

Can’t say it often enough: It’s time to think big -- and historically -- on this one.

This may seem like a rather geeky aside, given all the talk of brewing lawsuits and FBI investigations, but it's very important: Yesterday Democrats won control of a majority of statehouses for the first time since 1994, picking up all nine of the chambers that changed hands. (One especially startling acquisition was the New Hampshire House, which hasn't been controlled by Democrats since before the Civil War.) And, of course, Democrats also now hold a majority of the country's governorships.

In our last issue, I wrote about the importance of winning state legislatures for redistricting. But these state-level gains are more far-reaching than that. Winning legislative chambers allows a party to set the political tone in a state, nurture new talent (think Barack Obama) and, arguably, enact more meaningful changes in policy than is often possible in Congress. Incidentally, Democrats' state-level gains also confirm -- just in case anyone's doubting it -- the depth of the rejection that Republicans received last night.

EARLY BIRD CATCHES THE WORM...Looks like Steny Hoyer isn't wasting any time launching his campaign for majority leader. John Murtha is still expected to challenge him, but the buzz is that Steny's got it pretty much wrapped up.

Time will tell whether that's good or bad news for Democrats, but our take -- and everything else you might want to know about the prospective House #2 -- is here.

RIP, Karl Rove. .... Enough of the man too many insiders have, for too long, feared and revered. He's been the primary mover behind the poisonous politics and wrongheaded policies of the last six years.

Let's revue the record.

Karl Rove, White House policy director:

Crafts policies designed to create GOP political gain that backfire. Medicare drug legislation, a windfall for big Pharma, backfires. Social Security privatization, seen as a risky scheme by seniors and ignored by youth, backfires. Energy policy, fails to acknowledge growing national consensus on global warming, fails to keep energy prices in check, backfires. Blocking stem cell research, to stoke small part of evangelical base at the expense of medical breakthroughs, backfires. Tax cuts, mostly targeted at ultra rich, drive up historic debt, ultimately backfire.

Karl Rove, architect of 2000, 2004, 2006:

In 2000, Bush secures Republican nomination after smear campaign whacks McCain in South Carolina. Bush loses popular vote, gains Electoral College after widespread voter suppression and trickery in Florida and blessing by the Supreme Court.

In 2004, one year into the war, three years after 9/11, while the country is still healing and mobilized behind the troops, Bush launches a campaign to divide the nation. Bogus character attacks on Kerry ("swift boat") and wedge issues like gay marriage appeal to worst aspects of electorate. Trickery in Ohio leads to victory.

In 2006, Rove attempts to nationalize election around terrorism and war. Public repudiates GOP on both fronts: lose House, (likely) lose Senate.

Enough.

RIP, Karl Rove.

On a night when Democrats took back the House, and now seem likely to claim the Senate as well, few eyes were turned to reliably blue Massachusetts -- where Democrats control the entire Congressional delegation, Ted Kennedy extended his 44-year run in the Senate, and the governorship reverted to Democrats. But Deval Patrick's triumph to become the nation's second black governor, after Virginia's Doug Wilder, shouldn't be overlooked.

Patrick ran one of the best races of the year, defeating a formidable Democratic primary field including the state's attorney general. He defeated his Republican opponent, Lt. Governor Kerry Healy, by a stunning 20 percent. It's easy to see Massachusetts as a liberal redoubt -- and in many ways, it is -- but that hardly made Patrick's win an easy one.

First, the state's racial history isn't so pure. Anyone who remembers Boston's busing crisis in the mid-1970s -- flicked at most recently in Marin Scorcese's The Departed -- would be pretty amazed to see Patrick win so handily. Second, the state has had a slew of GOP governors--including for the last 16 years--who are seen as a vital balance to the state's one-party rule. Democrats don't walk to the governorship here.

On top of which: this was Patrick's first election! He grew up poor in Chicago, won a scholarship to the Milton Academy in Massachusetts and went on to career in corporate and civil rights law. He led a voting rights suit against Gov. Bill Clinton in the 80s which was settled and which led to a long-time friendship between the two men. After the famed Lani Guinier episode (when Clinton's first nominee to head the Civil Rights Division of the Justice Department was pressured to withdraw because of her rather exotic writings on voting rights), Patrick stepped in. He's been general counsel of Coca-Cola and Texaco.

His inclusive campaign this cycle -- its slogan: Together We Can -- was a tour de force, much of it the product of David Axelrod, the Chicago-based political consultant who happens to work for Barack Obama as well. He must be one very happy consultant today.

MEMPHIS, TENNESSEE, 7:55 a.m.

Even in his concession speech in front of adoring supporters at The Peabody, Harold Ford clung to that most surprising and unexpected component of his 2006 persona: Quoting passages of scripture, he made one last nudge of head upward, pointed heavenward one last time and thanked his maker, the celestial one, for the opportunity to do what he had almost done. And then, after having spoken the merest congratulations to his victorious opponent, he moved offstage, slowly, the arm of campaign chairman Lincoln Davis, his white-haired congressional colleague from Middle Tennessee, draped over his shoulder.

After all the excitement, after all the better-than-expected election results in Shelby, Davidson, and Hamilton counties, all urban centers, Harold Ford did what most Tennesseans thought in the beginning of his race he would do -- lose to an established Republican in a taken-for-granted red state.

Maybe it was never possible to win. At the end of it all, campaign strategist Tom Lee acknowledged to the media that his candidate had reached or achieved most of the campaign’s goals, falling short, perhaps, only in the upper northeast corner of the state, the so-called Tri-Cities of Kingsport, Bristol, and Johnson City, traditional Republican strongholds all.

Maybe it was what the national media saw as racial content in he infamous “Call Me, Harold” climax, spoken by a white bimbo in an RNC ad -– though most Tennesseans doubted it. Indeed, Ford seemed to do well among young white professionals, who flocked to his rallies and sported his bumper stickers on their Volvos and SUVs; they were as much a core constituency as African Americans were.

And he seemed to do well in some of the rural counties where a state constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage also ran up a big vote. At various times he even appeared capable of doing the impossible –- of stealing the religious vote from the Republicans. He promised on national TV that he would be a “Jesus-loving, gun-supporting” senator, began toting a Bible on the stump, and seemed about to create a brand-new political type.

But the final stubborn three percent GOP rival Corker clung to never dissolved. And red-state reality insisted on asserting itself.

--Jackson Baker
The Memphis Flyer
http://www.memphisflyer.com/memphis/

HELENA, MONTANA, 7:45 a.m.

Reporting from the Big Sky State (not Big Blue Sky State): did we celebrate before the game was over? While most people slept, rural counties, traditional Republican strongholds, kept trickling in. Now the Burns-Tester battle for the U.S. Senate is about as close as Allen-Webb race in Virginia. Maybe closer.

With more than 90 percent of the votes counted, Montana’s Secretary of State election website, showed Tester leading Burns by 3,113 votes, 168,121 to 165,008 with 8,762 votes (about 2.5 percent) going to libertarian Stan Jones. At least two rural counties, Beaverhead and Meagher, likely strongholds for Burns, had not reported any votes yet.

And nearly all the votes were counted in the pivotal Yellowstone, so-goes-the state, county, it seemed Burns was leading by 1,135 votes, 15,347 to 14,212, erasing an early lead by Tester.

It's going to be a long day.

--Bill Schneider
NewWest.net

BOZEMAN, MONTANA, 7:40 a.m. (EST)

At 1 a.m. in Montana, we still didn't know who our next senator was. I wonder how long it's been since the nation's political attention (whatever of it was still awake) focused on Montana?

And of all places, Gallatin Country, my county,­ that was really holding things up. (Well, okay, we couldn't decide the Burns-Tester race entirely on our own -- but we're definitely a county in transition from bright red to somewhat bluish so our votes will make a difference.)

And, as of 1 a.m. our time, there wasn't a single return out of Gallatin County. That's because that long line of people I wrote about last night, the ones waiting outside the county courthouse to register and vote (this is the first year Montana has had election day registration), didn't finish voting until midnight or so. And the county election official in charge, Shelley Vance, refused to release any results until everyone haf voted.

Folks probably stayed up waiting for results at the courthouse or at the Democratic and Republican victory parties. I, personally, decided to go to bed.

--Marjorie Smith

HAMILTON, MONTANA, 7:33 a.m. (EST)

It's officially the morning after, and we still don't have an official winner yet in the Burns-Tester matchup. Last night, with NPR blasting in the background, I flipped frantically through the Web looking for current results and changing numbers as critical races seemed to be going blue around the country.

Tester led for most of the night, although many of the eastern Montana counties, mostly Burns-friendly, took some time coming in. Of course, the populations in those counties are small. (For current results, check out www.newwest.net.)

Large counties -– like Cascade, where Great Falls is located; Missoula, which is a liberal stronghold; Flathead, a conservative anchor; and Gallatin, which could go either way -– took a painfully long time to have their votes tallied.

Initially it was reported that Tester took Yellowstone County; then they closed up shop to wait for a recount. It’s the most populist county and located in eastern Montana, an area where Burns has strong support. If Tester wins, it’s nearly a sure bet that he takes the state.

The buzz last night was hard to get a finger on. I spent at least two hours in a thick-walled, concrete basement of the Ravalli County courthouse. Cell phones didn’t work and the election volunteers were sweating hard opening absentee ballots and running them through tally machines.

A local state senator, a Republican still waiting anxiously for the results, was pretty candid about the Burns’ chances in the race, though he wouldn’t let me use his name.

“We’re going to get our asses kicked,” he told me.

The obvious indicators came early in the race, said the state senator. The Republican base didn’t show up. Usually luncheons and spaghetti feeds were popular local events and fundraisers for Republicans, but this year people just didn’t show up. Democrats had energy. Republicans didn’t.

In the end, Burns drew close to President Bush. He and Cheney both came to Montana to stump for Burns in the last days of the campaign, and Burns tightened the gap on Tester.

In Great Falls last night, Gov. Brian Schweitzer promised students excuses for missing class tomorrow as he encouraged supporters at the Tester party to pour a stiff drink and get braced for a long night. In Billings, where Burns awaits a decision, no one was getting comfortable either. Just before the polls, closed, I ventured over to the local Democrat campaign headquarters; they were still rallying folks to hit the streets. Instead of just calling people, they decided to knock on doors to get them to the polls. They went out in pairs. And the results were good.

Quinty Smith, a local organizer, told me later that they got every Democrat they found to the polls. In Ravalli County, that’s good, but Tester still lost the county, 9,434 to 7,489, with 90 percent of the votes counted.

Here's hoping this race gets called today.

--Greg Lemon
NewWest.net

So you want to know who's going to control the Senate? Well, you're not going to find out tonight. Some perspective here, before you turn in for the evening: the last contested vote and statewide recount in Virginia? wasn't resolved until around Christmas.

Season's greetings, people. Sweet dreams.

JEFFERSONVILLE, INDIANA, 1:49 a.m. (EST)

An hour after his concession, GOP Rep. Mike Sodrel looked like he needed some sleep, badly and soon. His campaign headquarters were still filled with a swarm of campaign volunteers, including 42 from Generation Joshua, an organization that encourages young people to get involved in politics and support “pro-life” and “pro-family” candidates. The youthful volunteers had come from several states to campaign for Sodrel in the campaign’s final days.

Over the past two years, Vice President Dick Cheney had come to the district several times for Sodrel fundraisers. In recent months, Barbara Bush and Laura Bush had come to the district on Sodrel’s behalf. Even President Bush came out to rally the base in the last two weeks before Election Day.

Late this evening, Greg Fitloff, a campaign volunteer, looked on a scene of local television reporters wrapping up their coverage for the day and lamented the election’s outcome.

He had worked on Sodrel’s two previous campaigns against Baron Hill and still couldn’t understand how his man didn’t win this round, noting that this campaign was so much better organized and funded than the previous two. He sighed and said something about liberal voters in Clark County and Monroe County, which is home to Indiana University.

Nearby, Sodrel contemplated the electorate, and his future. “The House does have its problems, I know. But I’m not sure that the electorate knows how the House works.” For now, he says he isn't thinking about another run for Congress. He's thinking about a vacation.

--Elizabeth Kramer
Louisville Eccentric Observer

HOPKINTON, NEW HAMPSHIRE, 1:27 a.m.

Just got home from the Carol Shea-Porter victory party; everyone there was a bit emotional, and completely stunned, at the unexpected result.

The story of New Hampshire Democrats' election day blowout, however, did not begin with Bush and the war. It began with an ethically challenged multimillionaire named Craig Benson, who bought the Governor's seat in 2002. Benson's bad behavior crushed the State Republican Party into a thousand pieces; it only took one two year term for Benson to beaten by a milquetoast Democratic millionaire whose campaign consisted of little more than "I am not Benson."

Two years later, Granite State Dems are still reaping the benefits of GOP excess. Tonight, they scored an overwhelming majority in the State House (a first in state history) and the state senate, and gained control of the Executive Council. In news footage, the two Republican congressional incumbents look like they've had an unfortunate run-in with a Mack Truck.

--Arnie Arnesen
www.ArnieArnesen.net

BOZEMAN, MONTANA, 1:07 a.m. (EST)

It was a jubilant scene at Gallatin County Democratic Headquarters in Bozeman, Montana. At about 9 PM (MST), an hour after the polls closed throughout Montana, I walked into the Labor Temple's big meeting room where the party faithful had gathered, just as CNN announced that the Democrats had captured the U.S. House.

With Democrat Jon Tester leading incumbent Republican Conrad Burns by six points, the crowd was ecstatic.

Franke Wilmer, candidate for the Montana House of Representatives, informed the crowd that she had attached the antlers from the four-point buck deer she shot a few years ago to the grill of her car.

Franke, a political science professor at Montana State University and chair of the Montana Human Rights Commission, is running in a district ­ the part of Bozeman I live in­ that has been Democratic for as long as I can remember. Her Republican opponent, Jim Klug, is a hunting outfitter. It's considered de rigeur in Montana to be a hunter, and Franke's campaign literature mentioned that she, too, is a hunter. A few days ago, some people not associated with the Klug campaign bought a half-page ad in the Bozeman Chronicle claiming that they'd spoken to someone at Montana Parks, Fish and Wildlife who could find no record of ever issuing a hunting license to Franke Wilmer, accusing her of either lying or illegal hunting. She produced the license and the newspaper ran a small article about the misleading ad.

The city of Bozeman tends to elect Democrats but the surrounding county is generally Republican. A couple of other Gallatin County House races will be real indicators if Gallatin County is undergoing a sea change. Two particularly impressive Democratic candidates ran in rural districts this year. One is Loren Acton, a solar scientist from MSU who also happens to be a former astronaut, and who is running against Jack Wells, an extremely conservative Republican who formerly served in the Montana Senate. In another rural district, John Vincent, who represented Bozeman in the House for many years, served as speaker, and has also served on the Bozeman City Commission and the Gallatin County Commission, is challenging ultra-conservative Roger Koopman who distinguished himself (if distinguish is the right word) by introducing a bill in the last session that would require death certificates for the fetus in any abortion. (The bill died in committee.) If either Acton or Vincent wins, we¹ll know the change that began in Montana two years ago with the election of Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer was not just a fluke.

However, results from Gallatin County won't be available for sometime;­ at last word, there were still people voting in the county courthouse --­ people who were in line to register and vote when the polls were supposed to close at 8 PM. And there will be no results released until everyone has voted.

Meanwhile, we wait for final word on the Senate race. So far, Conrad Burns is insisting that he will wait for the rural counties to report in. So we shall see. I suppose at this point it's possible that my county could decide the race that decides who has control of the U.S. Senate. It may be a long night.

--Marjorie Smith

The numbers in the Webb/Allen race -- listed on The Virginia State Board Elections website -- have been skewing towards Webb in the last half hour. The most recently-tallied precincts have been outperforming their districts, allowing Webb to make serious strides towards catching up with Allen.

The outstanding precincts, which are in nine districts, favor Webb. If each precinct's performance matches its district then that will leave Webb the winner by approximately 600 votes, a possibility that will keep awake Democrats across Virginia -- and the nation -- for some time to come.

--Waldo Jaquith
waldo.jaquith.org

Three weeks ago, Showdown predicted that, in a 2000 redux, the fight for the Senate would come down to George Allen's fight for Virginia. Well, two million-plus votes later -- with Montana and Missouri currently looking bluer by the moment -- that's exactly what it looks like.

UPSET IN KANSAS? ... A seat we hadn't been tracking closely, though we knew the race had narrowed considerably in recent days ... Rep. Jim Ryun, Republican of Kansas, is now behind Democrat Nancy Boyda, 52-44%, with two-thirds of precincts reporting. Just last week, Bush was in Kansas campaigning for Ryun. That an incumbent Republican in Kansas' second district would need a boost from the White House seemed incredible enough. But even that may not have put Ryun over the top...

ARLINGTON, VIRGINIA .... Down to the wire here ... Allen had been leading Webb by a hair, but now CNN reports Webb has a slim 3,000 lead. This one is likely headed for a recount, either way.

PROVIDENCE, RHODE ISLAND, 12:02 a.m.

The surprise of the night here in Rhode Island is the gubernatorial race, which has suddenly become a toss-up, too close to call; the Republican gubernatorial incumbent, it seems, is threatened by Rhode Island Democrats' stellar showing.

Meanwhile, the state's Senate race is over, with Sheldon Whitehouse wresting power from incumbent Linc Chafee. Whitehouse gave a very short victory speech, acknowledging the Chafee family’s public service and then thanking the coordinated Democratic campaign that added lots of dollars and manpower to the race. In his concession speech, Chafee said he’ll still be involved in politics. His brother told a talk radio show host that Chafee might run for governor someday—not the first time that rumor has circulated.

-- Nancy Cook
Reporter for WRNI, Rhode Island's NPR News Station

STONY POINT, VIRGINIA, 11:46 p.m.

Doing the math on the remaining precincts, I don't see how Jim Webb can defeat Sen. George Allen in the race here. Webb trails by 0.21% as of this minute. Assuming the outstanding precincts tend to perform as the rest of their districts do, that only gives Webb a little over 2,000 additional votes, leaving him short over 2,500 votes.

It's close enough that it'll go into an automatic recount -- as is Virginia law for races closer than a half percent -- and it may well be possible to make up that difference there.

--Waldo Jaquith
waldo.jaquith.org

DENVER, COLORADO, 11:38 p.m. (EST)

John Gaydeski: remember the name. By tomorrow, the chairman of the Denver Election Commission may be almost as infamous as Katherine Harris.

The problem, apparently, is a good old-fashioned network-capacity shortage. As a volunteer poll-watcher explained it at the Botanical Gardens, where the wait at 7 o'clock was still two hours at least, the new voting machines mostly worked fine -- but there weren't enough laptop connections to allow election judges to check the precinct of each voter.

Denver this year went to a "voting center" system over the traditional precinct-based system of polling places, meaning that voters can vote anywhere -- but requiring officials to look up each voters registration online.

"There's only three to six computers per center," said Dan Schoen, after handing out donated pizzas to the hundreds still waiting.. "There are 55 [voting] centers, and there's around 260 machines total. You just have to do the math."

At 7 p.m., the official closing time for the polls in Denver, long lines still stretched far up the street at the four voting centers I visited in the affluent, mostly liberal northeastern neighborhoods of Cherry Creek, Capitol Heights, and Park Hill. Many voters had already come by two or three times during the day to see if the two- and three-hour waits had diminished. Plenty had given up. Surprisingly, few of these overwhelmingly Democratic would-be voters attributed the scandalous voting snafus to a Republican conspiracy -- despite the fact that Republican Gini Dennis, the acting Secretary of State, is an appointee of outgoing Republican Gov. Bill Owens.

Even when the high-speed connections at the polling places were working, server backlogs downtown kept things stacked up.

An effort earlier this year to overhaul the election commission and set new rules was essentially tabled by the city council. Gaydeski was appointed in early summer. Before taking the Denver job he was a sales executive for Transol USA, which sold traffic cameras to municipalities. Transol is no longer in business. If I were Gaydeski I'd be having a few stiff drinks right now -- or buying a plane ticket to Mexico.

By the way, I'm now at the Democratic Party's gathering spot, at the Hyatt downtown. Local TV stations have already called the governor's race for Democrat Bill Ritter over his Republican opponent Bob Beauprez, and the booze is starting to flow.

--Richard Martin
Newwest.net

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA, 11:25 (EST)

Nevada's 2nd and 3rd CDs -- currently both Republican seats -- still too close to call, as is the governor's race (though Republicans seem to have a slight advantage in all three). Stay tuned.

--Patrick Coolican,
The Las Vegas Sun

Great TV moment: Dana Bash speaking from the DNC bash while her own face flickered from the giant screen behind her. As soon as she mentioned that Democratic leadership wouldn't claim victory until they knew the fate of those two vulnerable incumbents in Georgia, the CNN feed on that big screen disappeared... no point in spoiling the crowd's buzz.

Painful and Unpainful Loss: As I contemplate the possibility of Webb losing to Allen in Virginia and Tester losing to Conrad Burns in Montana, I'm thinking that what would make the loss sting isn't the numbers involved. It's the personalities. Rick Santorum might have disagreable views, but it was those views, not his character, that were the problem. I'd much rather have someone like Santorum in the Senate than someone like George Allen or Conrad Burns. Santorum represents convictions, for better or for worse. Allen and Burns represent nothing but themselves, and those selves aren't much to be proud of. Defeat is never fun, but it's when it comes at the hands of shabbier men that it really stings.

Wolf has spoken: the Dems have it.

--The Editors

One more pickup, and you can call her Speaker-elect Pelosi.

--The Editors

HELENA, MONTANA, 10:59 p.m.

Here in Montana, Billings -- the largest city -- is considered the pivotal vote: as Billings goes, so goes the state. Well, the results are in, and Jon Tester has won Yellowstone County, home of Billings, with 4,888 votes to 4,147 for Conrad Burns.

Too early to say if this foretells the statewide results, but it’s definitely a good indicator that Montana is turning Sky Blue.

--Bill Schneider
www.newwest.net

Ladies and gentlemen: the magic number in the House is now down to 6.

--The Editors

TOLEDO, OHIO, 10:37 p.m. (EST)

As precincts report on CNN, celebrating Ohio Democrats turn somber as they watch the race nationwide. With Missouri, Virginia, Tennessee and Montana on their way to turning red, hopes of a Democratic Senate seem dim from here. Meanwhile, conversation turns to NW Ohio voters who moved only a half mile being forced to submit provisional ballots. "I know what it means to be disenfranchised," says one voter, a Ph.D. student at Bowling Green State University. "Now I don't know if my vote will even be counted."

Rick Claypool
Toledo City Paper

HOPKINTON, NEW HAMPSHIRE, 10:34 p.m.

Congressman Bass has just conceded...

Paul Hodes was annointed by the DCCC; they pumped $1,000,000 into his race in the last two weeks and they got a good return on their investment. The more interesting race in my book -- featuring Carol Shea-Porter and Congressman Bradley -- remains in a dead heat.

Think about it: Bradley thought he was safe. The Dems basically ignored the Porter race until this weekend. The pollsters said it was impossible and predicted she would lose by 6 points. Now we're looking at a late, late night, and maybe even a recount.

Meanwhile, the State Senate is now in the hands of the Democrats, with at least 14 seats out of 24. The House numbers are still rolling in but in one conservative city, Rochester, only one Republican survived out of nine seats. That sort of rout has never happened there before.

The only person who may be slightly upset about the huge Democratic wins at the state level is the incumbent Democratic Governor, who has played the benevolent moderate Republican in Democratic clothing. That sort of trick is easy to pull off when you have a Republican Senate and House -- but with the big numbers coming in for Dems tonight, it's just gotten much harder.

UPDATE: I am not screaming just yet, but it looks like Carol Shea-Porter is going to pull this off. If Bradley loses this race, Carol should be the cover story for Time or Newsweek. This is the sort of Cinderella story they make movies about. Stay tuned.

--Arnie Arnesen
www.ArnieArnesen.com

HELENA, MONTANA, 10:24 p.m.

I’m just back from the Windbag Saloon, the local watering hole where the politicos hang out. (Yes, that’s why it’s called the Windbag.) I learned a few things, but not too much. The problem is, Helena is the bluest town in Montana, so it’s hard to get a statewide read, and the polls won’t close for another hour. If I make my bets with what I heard, it’s a Democratic landslide in Montana, but I would not bet your farm on that. We really need to play the game first.

One guy seemed to have it figured out. He said: “It’s a Democratic landside, no problem, all over the country. The Dems were able to nationalize the election, getting people to concentrate on the war and corruption and the deficit, but the republicans were not able to localize it where they could win by getting people to think about local issues.”

One interesting discussion I stumbled into could be called: “Who has the biggest coattails?”

They're talking about Governor Brian Schweitzer’s active campaign to support Democratic candidates from senatorial hopeful Jon Tester down to local legislative races. The Gov is popular, no doubt, with polls showing about a 72 percent approval rating. But is it enough to win out what should have been the biggest coattails of them all: the Commander-in-Chief, stumping in Montana for incumbent Republican senator Conrad Burns? The Blue People of Helena think so, because they see the President as a negative influence on Burns's campaign, but is this naiveté?

In about four hours, we might know the answer. If we do, it will be Tester. If we don’t, it’s deadly close as some predict, and we won’t know until well into mid-day tomorrow or later.

--Bill Schneider
www.newwest.net

ALBUQUERQUE, NEW MEXICO, 10:20 p.m. (EST)

At the Democratic Party of New Mexico headquarters for the evening, the Hotel Albuquerque, it's too early to tell who's leading in the hotly-contested District 1 race between incumbent Heather Wilson (R) and Patricia Madrid (D); The other seats up for grab went predictably: Senator Jeff Bingaman retook his Senate seat with 79 percent of the vote, Tom Udall taking 65 percent of the vote in the northern part of the state, that includes Santa Fe, and with Steve Pearce, the Republican from the so-called oil belt retaining his seat.

This one was a bit of surprise--his opponent, Al Kissling, is a pastor and ran a strong race in a very Republican part of New Mexico. The spread wasn't that large--54 percent to 46 percent, without many precincts reporting. Right now, peope are clustering around the TV that's showing CNN, and the mariachi band just started to play, but no candidates have arrived yet.

STONY POINT, VIRGINIA, 10:11 p.m.

With 88 percent of precincts reporting, CNN says the Virginia senate race is still too close to call. The whole contest hangs on this question: Will Virginia Beach deliver more votes to George Allen than Northern Virginia will to Jim Webb?

The votes are still being tallied in a few major metropolitan areas. Most of them favor Jim Webb and, in aggregate, could represent a substantial tally for the Democrat. Perhaps equal in number are the votes that Republican George Allen stands to gain from the conservative (and populous) Virginia Beach, which is only 90% tallied. There's nothing to do now but wait for those numbers to come in -- there's just no forecasting it without them.

--Waldo Jaquith
waldo.jaquith.org

MIAMI, FLORIDA, 10:02 p.m.

The final verdict here seems to be that everything ran very smoothly: polls opened on time and closed on time across the county and no major complaints appear to have surfaced. As for returns, incumbent Bill Nelson will remain as Florida's Democratic senator, having trounced Katherine Harris; Charlie Crist and Jim Davis are still neck and neck for governor; and all incumbents for the House seem to have won with comfortable margins.

I did a drive by past Café Versailles in Little Havana, generally the major gathering place after any big upheavals in Miami. Though festooned with signs for Republican candidates, the parking lot was fairly dark -- no impassioned speeches being made from the back of pick up trucks, no local television satellite vans or throngs of rumpled journalists in Dockers – it seems that all is quite tranquil in town tonight.

Indeed, except for the governors' race and a few local issues can I venture to say that Miami's midterm election was fairly uneventful? The only disruption I witnessed (and it was sort of wonderful) came from the antique fire truck that was wailing around downtown Miami all day, plastered with signs for a local city commission candidate by politicking members of the firemen's union.

--Emily Witt
Miami New Times

STONY POINT, VIRGINIA, 9:27 p.m.

Sen. George Allen describes himself as "an open book" for the electorate to read, bragging that he's supported by those who know him best in Charlottesville and Albemarle County, where he lived for many years. Allen lost in a landslide in Albemarle County this evening, with 41% of the vote, and devastatingly in Charlottesville, with 21% of the vote.

Allen's right: we do know him. That's why, overwhelmingly, we voted for Jim Webb.

--Waldo Jaquith
waldo.jaquith.org

CAPE GIRARDEAU, MISSOURI, 9:25 p.m. (EST)

Democrats nationally have promised to raise the minimum wage as one of their first acts if they take control of Congress. But Missouri voters don't seem to be willing to wait. A measure put on the ballot by initiative petition would increase the minimum wage in Missouri to $6.50 an hour, adding the state to the list of more than a dozen states nationwide that have a minimum wage higher than the $5.15 an hour federal minimum.

And the measure is getting support from a surprising number of people in conservative Southeast Missouri who are opposing the state's stem-cell research proposal.

"The rich people want everybody to work for nothing and they want all the money," said Johnny Below, who voted at a rural Cape Girardeau County church. Below voted against stem cell research.

A Bollinger County voter who declined to give his name also voted against stem-cell research and for a higher minimum wage. "I don't think anybody can make it on $5.15 an hour. I think we can afford it."

-- Rudi Keller
Southeast Missourian

CRANFORD, NEW JERSEY, 9:18 p.m.

It's no surprise Sen. Menendez held on to his Senate seat: there was heavy turnout in Jersey City today. The state's second largest city isn't just any a Democratic stronghold -- it's located in Hudson County, the senator's home county and main base.

Poll workers have been talking about record high turnout in the communities of Berkeley Heights and Summit. In some precincts in Berkeley Heights, extra polling machines were brought out to accommodate the extra voters. Some observers mentioned that turnout was exceeding that of the 2004 election, with 90 minutes left before the polls closed.

-- John Celock
Freelance writer

ST. LOUIS, MISSOURI, 9:15 p.m. (EST)

Fortunately, my fears about machine problems in St. Louis City didn't materialize. The city polls I checked were running smoothly around closing time and, other than the problems with the college students, no significant issues were reported during the day.

In this crucial race -- where early returns are still too close to call -- voter turnout was much larger than expected. The city thinks there was 50 percent turnout and the county estimates about 70 percent. Significantly, the value voters near Springfield turned out in much higher numbers than expected: Voting there was so busy that poll workers ran out of ballots at polling stations --likely due to the stem cell amendment.

-- Kate Burson
Freelance writer

LAS CRUCES, NEW MEXICO, 9:10 p.m. (EST)

That polling location in Albuquerque that didn't have nearly enough ballots isn't alone... The Albuquerque Journal is reporting that another location on a different side of town also ran out, and quite a few others had been running dangerously low.

Bernalillo County is by far the most populous of those -- and with the congressional race between the Republican Congresswoman Heather Wilson and her challenger Democratic Attorney General Patricia Madrid nearly in a statistical dead heat, it's getting ugly.

Not only is the New Mexico Republican Party considering a lawsuit if Wilson is not the clear winner, but some county and state officials are already playing the blame game. The county's reputation -- and that of its clerk-running-for-Secretary-of-State -- is on the line, and the current Secretary of State's Office doesn't want to take the fall. Public in-party fighting on election day isn't reflecting well on the Democrats in Albuquerque.

On the bright side, other than a few precincts not being opened on time, the only thing polling locations in the rest of the state are running out of is "I Voted" stickers.

-- Jodi Breisler
News Director, KRWG-FM

LOUISVILLE, KY, 9:02 p.m. (EST)

With 94.5% reporting, John Yarmuth has an insurmountable lead over Rep. Anne Northup in KY-3, by a 50.8% to 48.0% margin. This seat is starting to look more and more like a Democratic pickup.

--Mark Nickolas
The Bluegrass Report

FRANKFORT, KY, 8:52 p.m. (EST)

Democrat John Yarmuth may hold a small lead over Republican incumbent Anne Northup in early returns, but in other Kentucky congressional races, incumbents hold the advantage so far.

In the 4th District in Northern Kentucky, Republican Geoff Davis had a 6 percentage point lead over Democrat Ken Lucas, who once held the seat.

In Western Kentucky’s 2nd District, Republican incumbent Ron Lewis was trying to stave off a strong challenge by Democrat Mike Weaver, a retired Army colonel and a state representative. And in far Western Kentucky, Republican Ed Whitfield had a healthy lead over Democrat Tom Barlow.

It also looks like Republican Hal Rogers easily won his 5th District seat in Eastern Kentucky against Democrat Kenneth Stepp, and Democrat Ben Chandler trounced Libertarian candidate Paul Ard in Central Kentucky’s 6th District.

--Jack Brammer
Lexington Herald-Leader

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA, 8:45 (EST)

My colleague Jon Ralston reports ABC News exit polls have Democrat Dina Titus up in the governor's race by three points. He reminds, however, that polls are still open, and exit polls once had Kerry winning.

Also, prominent Nevada liberal blogger Hugh Jackson talked to Sen. Harry Reid today, who said if Democrats take one or both houses, they'll "re-establish the legislative branch." Reid also says Bush is constitutionally incapable of compromise, which could make for an interesting two years. Check out his report at www.nvtoday.com

--Patrick Coolican,
The Las Vegas Sun

TOLEDO, OHIO, 8:45 p.m. (EST)

Heave ho! Spirits are high for Ohio Dems as NPR reports a likely shoo-in win for Ted Strickland. Now maybe we won't be able to complain about the polls being rigged. A human rights attorney at a press club meeting at Georgio's bar in Toledo said he'd start the revolution tomorrow if Blackwell wins, and goshdarnit, I'm behind him. Now it's tally time, and with Ohio's ballot full of issues including a possible minimum wage increase, smoking bans, and legalized gambling, much remains to be said. It's the countdown to the countdown.

--Rick Claypool
Toledo City Paper

MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA, 8:16 p.m. (EST)

What happened to the Democratic revolution of 2006? Does it still exist at this late hour? In Minnesota, the only thing that seems certain is that Democrat Amy Klobuchar is going to beat Republican Mark Kennedy for U.S. Senate--but even that could be closer than polls have predicted, since there’s a notion that there's a strong GOP bloc lurking out there somewhere in the North Star State.

The local GOP party this evening will be held at the Sheraton in Bloomington, a suburb south of Minneapolis. It's the same place the GOPers partied until the wee hours in 2002, when it wasn't clear if Republican Norm Coleman had defeated Democrat Walter Mondale for Paul Wellstone's Senate seat. That night truly felt like a revolution for the right--the GOP dominated state politics as it hadn’t in 60 years, and, that night, pretty much every major Republican candidate won. Tonight, the feeling will be more anxious, but the end result perhaps no less victorious. It's actually not looking so bad for the Republicans here.

The notable exception to this, aside from Klobuchar/Kennedy (she's the only DFLer who will split the ticket and pull GOP voters), is the 1st Congressional District race. There, the longtime GOP incumbent, Gil Gutknecht, is up against Democrat Tim Walz in a race that's been neck-and-neck for at least three months. Walz is the reason for this: he’s a veteran who is anti-war; someone who comes across as sensible, but not studied; and an everyman who seems sharp enough to negotiate Washington just fine. He's sort of like the retired astronaut on "Northern Exposure," but far less paranoid.

But Gutknecht has been a perfectly adequate Rep., with no scandal or unsavory revelations hanging over him. It is, in fact, difficult to hate Gutknecht, which is exactly why it's surprising that he's holding on for dear life. Walz simply outdoes him as a candidate pretty much every time he opens his mouth.

Walz--unlike his Democratic cohorts Patty Wetterling in the 6th and Coleen Rowley, the FBI whistleblower running in the 2nd--has been able to capitalize on fears and anxieties regarding Iraq without knocking his opponent or condescending to voters who might feel the work in Iraq isn't done. And he's one of the few Dems--like Barack Obama and James Webb--who have actually offered up an exit strategy that doesn't seem like it was drafted on Mars.

In short, Walz's trajectory from unknown to probable member of Congress is understandable. But then again, the governor's race is tight enough here to ignite the electorate, and, if the Republicans in the 1st come out for gubernatorial incumbent Tim Pawlenty, a good number of them will also cast a vote for Gutknecht while they’re at it.

One more factor: John Kerry was supposed to stump for Walz the day after his gaffe. The next day, the joint appearance didn't happen. Will that hurt Walz in the long run? Tough to say, but it doesn't help.

--G.R. Anderson Jr.
News Editor
City Pages

For coverage of all the Minnesota races, go to www.cpblotter.com.

LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY, 8:24 p.m.

Enormous upset in the making in the Bluegrass State as John Yarmuth (D) leads Rep. Anne Northup (R) by a 50-48 margin in Kentucky-3 with more than 80% reporting. A reminder: a few weeks ago, NRCC chairman Tom Reynolds told reporters that he expected Northup to win -- but that he would be in for a long night if she lost. KY-3 was not among the toss-ups until last week.

--Mark Nickolas
The Bluegrass Report

HOPKINTON, NEW HAMPSHIRE, 7:59 p.m.

We are beginning to piece together the election story in New Hampshire. Traditionally, the state legislature has been a Republican stronghold (in fact, I don't think a Democrat has ever seen the inside of the Speaker's Office unless invited in). The interesting dynamic this election is that every Republican rep was virtually on their own today. They had no real strength to cover them at the top of the ticket (remember: the Democratic Governor was polling at 72% to the Republican's 18%), and the new ballot design gave neither party an advantage.

I just got off the phone with a candidate from the rural North Country of New Hampshire who reported big turnout; the problem for both parties right now is that that turnout has been driven by an enormous number of new registrations (N.H. permits same-day registration.) Right now, everyone's watching to see how those voters break.

--Arnie Arnesen
www.ArnieArnesen.com

ST. LOUIS, MISSOURI, 7:47 p.m.

The early morning machine malfunctions in St. Louis City have been fixed. Problems ranged from technical malfunctions with Diebold machines, to late deliveries of the Diebold cards necessary for people to vote.

However, problems still persist. TPM received a report earlier today of a machine in Webster Groves that recorded a vote for Republican Jim Talent, although the voter had intended to cast their ballot for Democratic candidate Claire McCaskill.

And in St. Louis City, some college and graduate students were prohibited from voting because their names were mysteriously missing from the voting roll. Washington University has emailed students to return to the polls and complete provisional ballots if necessary.

But the real test in the dead-heat Senate race will come tonight, when a majority of the city voters head to the polls. The city polls I visited today were only equipped with two electronic machines and about 10 places for people to vote manually. I voted in the County, which had eight voting machines and several manual voting stations. No problems had occurred with the machines so far. (As noted earlier, St. Louis County is the Republican stronghold.)

-- Kate Burson
Freelance writer

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA, 7:42 p.m. (EST)

Just off the phone with Clark County. As of 3 p.m. 95,079 voters had gone to the polls in Clark County, where most of Nevada lives, or about 44 percent turnout when added to early and absentee voting. Turnout unlikely to reach 2002 levels. Clark is where Democrats rack up big numbers, so this could be good news for the Republicans. On the other hand, we don't know who's voted. CNN exit polls that show scandals have played a big role adds interesting twist, with Republican gubernatorial candidate Jim Gibbons and Rep. Jon Porter both facing scandals of different type and scope.

Patrick Coolican,
The Las Vegas Sun

CLEVELAND, OHIO, 7:38 p.m.

It's going to be a long night.

A federal judge is ordering 16 polling locations in Cuyahoga County to remain open. That means no results from this Democrat-favoring county till at least 9 pm. And since the networks are playing it close to the vest with poll data until all the polls close, Ohio's results might not begin to come in for a couple hours yet.

The suit was filed by Ohio Democrats due to late starts and other problems caused by the new touchscreen electronic voting.

-- Kevin Hoffman,
Cleveland Scene

HENRYVILLE, INDIANA, 7:35 p.m. (EST)

The rain had subsided by this afternoon when I made my way to the northern reach of Clark County, Ind, There I stopped at Henryville, birthplace of Harland David Sanders, better known as Colonel Sanders. (Yes, the man who isknown as the father of Kentucky Fried Chicken was actually born in Indiana.) According to the census, just over 1,500 people live here. Twice a month this town also hosts a sometimes rowdy bluegrass jam. It's a town with a center made up of only a few blocks.

Just off Main Street, which doesn't seem like a main artery at all, is the IGA grocery store. Here, I talked with Brenda, the cashier, and Sandra, who bought some dog food (both didn't want to give their last names). They said that while they were aware of the ultra-close race between 9th District Congressional candidates Rep. Sodrel and Hill, they weren't planning to vote. Both said they didn't trust politicians on any side to represent their interests and didn't think any of them would do anything that would influence their lives for the better.

Brenda's been working at the store for several years and trying to find a secretarial job near Louisville; Sandra, who served in the Air Force for 20 years, has been working a part-time temp job in Clarksville, just across the Ohio River from Louisville. She said she has had problems finding a job herself. While Brenda has never voted, Sandra said she voted until the 2000 election. After that, she had had enough of politics. "Al Gore won that election. If they can lie about that, they can lie about anything," she said with an intense glare from behind her large eyeglasses.

Meanwhile, plenty of people were voting several blocks away at the high school. By 4 p.m. poll workers reported that of the 1,700 voters on the roles, 1,390 had already voted. (One of the inspectors exclaimed, "That's a better turnout than 2004.") Farther north, voters reported problems with machines in Marion County, which includes Indianapolis, and Delaware County, which includes the city of Muncie and Ball State University. Meanwhile in the Henryville High School gym, the voting process seemed to be running quite smoothly.

Just talking to a handful of voters didn't give me any indication of whether this town was for Sodrel or for Hill. The only prevailing attitude was the one I encountered at the IGA store. Several people commented about lying politicians. Among people who told me that they voted for Sodrel and those who told me they had voted for Hill were common complaints and fears about limiting freedoms — freedom of speech, freedom to have guns, and a woman's right to chose to have an abortion. (The latter wasn't a comment I expected to hear in this corner of southern Indiana.) Gary Morris, a self-described "working man" employed at ESSROC, a major cement producer in the nearby town of Speed, said he voted straight Democrat. He echoed what several people have told me today: there is no accountability in Washington, D.C.

Voters have said this regarding the war in Iraq, and the rising deficit. Several made disparaging comments about the high price of gas. And even though they all took the time to vote, none of them thought a win by either candidate would really help solve the country's problems.

-- Elizabeth Kramer
Louisville Eccentric Observer

PROVIDENCE, RHODE ISLAND, 7:18 p.m.

I just returned from a few polling places in swing suburbs, Warwick and Cranston — places that any candidate must take to win Rhode Island. Here's what I encountered:

In terms of the Senate race, voters were still split. Those who voted for GOP incumbent Lincoln Chafee did so because he's served Rhode Island for awhile and they said they personally liked him. One man voted for Chafee because he wanted to keep the Republicans in power and because he approved of the Iraq war— although Chafee, ironically, voted against it.

Supporters of the Democratic challenger Sheldon Whitehouse primarily said they were sick of the Republicans, wanted a change and were disgusted by the Iraq War. No one said they personally liked Whitehouse; they just wanted the Republicans out of Washington.

-- Nancy Cook
Reporter for WRNI, Rhode Island's NPR News Station

COLUMBUS, OHIO, 7:07 p.m. (EST)

Chris Redfern, chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party, was in good spirits this afternoon. Though he tried to downplay his expectations, he predicted his team would at least win the offices of U.S. Senate, governor, secretary of state and treasurer--none of which the Democrats have won since the re-election of John Glenn in 1992. He said his party machine has been getting out the vote and protecting voter rights all day.

"I don't know about the Republicans' 72-hour program, but we have the best nine-month program I've ever seen," he said. Alluding to Ken Blackwell's anti-gay politics, which helped him get the Republican nomination, Redfern added, "Ohio is about to reject the politics of division and the politics of hate."

Meanwhile, just before 5 p.m. in German Village, a southern Columbus neighborhood, a Democratic volunteer placed a Mary Jo Kilroy sign right next to a Deborah Pryce sign at an intersection, as if that would make the difference tonight. Who knows? Maybe it will.

--Dan Williamson
The Other Paper
Columbus Monthly magazine

RIVERDALE, MARYLAND, 6:47 p.m.

An interesting subplot is developing here in Prince George's County. As I've reported, the Ehrlich and Steele campaigns have been distributing flyers at local polling booths featuring a "Sample Democratic Ballot." Although this ballot lists mostly Democratic candidates (presumably in order to appear authentic to Democratic voters) it has Ehrlich and Steele at the top of the ticket.

In the deadlocked Senate race, this underhanded tactic obviously benefits the GOP. However, earlier today I met one Republican who wasn't too happy about it: Jim Wildoner, who is running for county council in district three. His car had a prominent Wildoner sign on it, and he had come by to confiscate the misleading flyers. At first, I assumed he was ashamed of his party for pulling such a misleading stunt. As it turned out, he was vexed that a document paid for by a Republican campaign didn't list him as the party's choice for county council. He was also rather murky as to why a GOP document would be prominently labeled "Ehrlich-Steele Democrats."

Clearly a smart guy, Wildoner gave the workers new handouts that listed his name as the party's preferred candidate. He may also have made an appearance here at Riverdale Elementary School shortly before I arrived. Jesse Iliff, a volunteer here, told me that a man got out of a car displaying a Wildoner sign a little over an hour ago, and replaced the handouts being distributed by two Philly imports (employees at a homeless shelter) with his own. Wildoner doesn't seem to be much of a team player—putting his own electoral aspirations above his party's desire to trick Democrats.

-- Jesse Singal
The Washington Monthly

CLEVELAND, OHIO, 6:45 p.m.

I’m hearing that Ohio may be joining the list of states in which federal lawsuits have been filed to extend voting hours, due to problems with the Diebold machines. More as it comes in.

-- Kevin Hoffman
Cleveland Scene

LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY 6:34 PM (exit polls)

Polls closed at 6pm in Kentucky, and there's lots of Dem optimism here in Louisville (KY3) as exit polling shows challenger John Yarmuth (D) with a 51-47 lead over Rep. Anne Northup (R) in exit polling with 2% refusing to say. That mirrors the last round of independent polling.

A few weeks ago, NRCC chairman Tom Reynolds told reporters that he expected Northup to win -- but that he would be in for a long night if she lost.

KY3 was not among the toss-ups until last week. Could this be a harbinger of national trends?

Mark Nickolas
The Bluegrass Report

WESTFIELD, NEW JERSEY, 6:05 p.m.

There is nothing more New Jersey than a diner, and today the Westfield Diner was packed with people more than willing to talk politics. Westfield is a heavily Republican town, although you wouldn't guess that from talking to the folks here. Many people talked about how anger motivated them to vote, citing dissatisfaction with Iraq, President Bush's work, the economy, gas prices and rising health-care costs. Some discussed the need for checks and balances, and a desire to have a Democratic Congress balance out a Republican Administration.

Voters also expressed disgust with the overall negativity of the campaigns, particularly the Senate race between Democrat Robert Menendez and Republican Tom Kean, Jr. Westfield is Kean's hometown, but when I asked voters here about the election, their reaction was often a sour facial expression, followed by a remark about how terrible the race has been.

-- John Celock
Freelance writer

GET YOUR SENATE EXIT POLL NUMBERS HERE... From a Democratic Senate staffer who's seen them:

Dem leads:
VA: 52-47
RI: 53-46
PA: 57-42
OH: 57-43
NJ: 52-45
MT: 53-46
MO: 50-48
MD: 53-46

GOPer leads:
TN: 51-48
AZ: 50-46

Grain. Salt. etc.

LAS CRUCES, NEW MEXICO, 5:55 p.m. EST

For a state where the majority of statewide offices are considered a lock, New Mexico voters are turning out. Over 200,000 of New Mexico's registered voters cast their votes during the three-week early voting period. That's one-fifth of the state's registered voters (which number slightly more than a million people).

Good thing, too—because voting problems have been and are occurring. Today, in one of the most hotly contested congressional races, where New Mexico's Democratic Attorney General Patricia Madrid is challenging incumbent Republican Rep. Heather Wilson, there's already talk of a lawsuit. The suit—which could be filed in federal court this afternoon—concerns a possible glitch in a heavily Republican precinct in Bernalillo County. In Albuquerque's Northeast Heights, voters have complained of being turned away due to a reported lack of ballots. New Mexico Republicans are saying that the precinct was only allotted 150 ballots in an area where there are approximately 2,500 registered voters. Interestingly, the Bernalillo County Clerk in charge of the election there is also the Democratic candidate for New Mexico Secretary of State.

In addition, during the first week of early voting, equipment for disabled voters wasn't complete, stoking fears of disenfranchisement. In order to avoid voting machine errors, New Mexico reinstated paper ballots. However, it hasn't completely worked. When some absentee ballots were sent out in Bernalillo County, there were two copies sent per
request to about 1300 voters. And in Southern New Mexico this morning, one voting precinct in the small town of La Mesa opened significantly behind schedule.

So, despite the paper ballots, voting is not running completely smoothly—and if the Bernalillo county lawsuit goes through, we may not have results for the 1st congressional district by the end of the night.

-- Jodi Breisler
News Director
KRWG-FM

BOULDER, COLORADO, 5:51 p.m. (EST)

Election Day dawned unseasonably mild across Colorado today, but the fine weather didn't prevent the day from turning ugly for thousands of would-be voters. Computer problems and manpower shortages at the new "voting centers" in Denver caused long lines at the polling places, forcing some to wait in line for more than two hours.

By mid-morning many were simply giving up, which prompted the Colorado Democratic Party to head to District Court to seek to keep the voting centers open for an extra two hours this evening. This is the first year that the city has used the voting centers, rather than traditional precinct polling places. Denver residents can vote at any of the voting centers, and the choice has apparently caused massive jams at some centers while others are virtually empty.

The fact that it's the Democrats seeking an injunction to keep the voting centers open another two hours in Denver, a relative liberal stronghold in this Western state, reflects the persistent paranoia that has marked the advent of computerized voting across the country.

Here in Colorado the Republicans have waged what is generally considered one of the more inept campaigns in modern history. An aide to Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob Beauprez, who could hardly open his mouth the last two months without saying something stupid or inflammatory, may have violated federal law by combing a federal criminal database to dig up "dirt" on Democratic candidate Bill Ritter. Beauprez is 5 points or more down in the polls. ColoradoPols.com, the influential insider Web site, today called the Beauprez candidacy "perhaps the worst campaign in Colorado in the last 30 years."

It's not just Beauprez, though: Republicans in this once-red state have descended into an orgy of mudslinging and infighting that has caused more than one commentator, including this one, to compare the Colorado party to "crabs in a barrel." Retiring Republican Rep. Joel Hefley refused to endorse his party's nominated successor, Doug Lamborn, in the race for the 5th Congressional District, saying he couldn't countenance the sleaziness of Lamborn's primary race. A right-wing stronghold, the 5th includes Colorado Springs, home of the Air Force Academy and of the Rev. James Dobson's "Focus on the Family."

Lamborn's challenger Jay Fawcett has had his office vandalized not once but twice; this morning campaign workers arrived at the office to discover it drenched in skunk aroma.

Boosted by a late appearance by the President, Conservative firebrand Marilyn Musgrave may yet win her battle to hold onto her 4th District seat, but the GOP has spent far more than it anticipated to fend off challenger Angie Paccione.

Another bumbling campaign has been run by Republican and political neophyte Rick O'Donnell, who is expected to lose to Ed Perlmutter in the race for Beauprez's vacated House seat.

I attended a dinner party a few weeks ago with a group of half a dozen or so longtime Democratic activists, and the mood was one of bemused celebration: "We could see the entire House delegation go Democratic," one of them said, shaking her head in bafflement.

--Richard Martin
Newwest.net

AFTER ALL, IT'S NOT LIKE THE EXIT POLLS HAVE RAISED FALSE HOPE BEFORE: Over at TNR, Ryan Lizza's source says things are looking good, Senate-wise. Add your standard cup of salt.

STONY POINT, VIRGINIA, 5:33 p.m.

I spent a couple of hours today taking a drive through rural Virginia, taking a lazy loop up from Albemarle County through Madison, west of Culpeper to Rappahannock County. I didn't go through a town that consisted of more than a few dozen buildings, and encountered no more than a few dozen cars along the way.

My quiet, solo drive came to an abrupt halt in Madison County when I stumbled across a polling place. Dozens of cars, in the middle of the afternoon, were parked outside of a municipal building. Several people were looking for parking spaces. It was blanketed with signs for Jim Webb. The joint, in short, was jumpin'.

Josh Chernila, Grassroots Coordinator for the Webb campaign, tells me this is basically what's going on throughout the state. He describes turnout as "extremely strong," and says they've both met and surpassed even their most ambitious projections for volunteer turnout. They have more people than they know what to do with.

My home of Albemarle County just released the latest turnout figures: 45.75% of registered voters as of 4pm, which is a remarkable number. That's the same as the total turnout in the most recent midterm elections, in 2002. I intend to spend the next couple of hours working the polls here in Stony Point. I expect to stay busy.

--Waldo Jaquith
waldo.jaquith.org

GREENBELT, MARYLAND, 5:10 p.m.
After reporting earlier that the Steele and Ehrlich campaigns recruited residents from a Philadelphia homeless shelter to hand out misleading materials at polling places, I've been able to confirm this story with more recruits. (The Washington Post and the Maryland Gazette now have reports here and here--hat tip: TPM.

About an hour ago, I talked to two men at a different polling place who were handing out the same pamphlets encouraging people to vote for a "Democratic" ticket led by Bob Ehrlich and Michael Steele. Neither would give me his name, and both said they were residents at a Philadelphia homeless shelter. They said that last night at around 6 p.m., workers from the Steele campaign came by the shelter and offered them $100 for today's work. They were told to be at a designated place by 3.30 a.m. to board the buses. They were taken to Prince George's County and promised three meals. (They had been served breakfast and lunch by the time I talked to them.) Both were aware of the problems with the pamphlets. "Somebody's doing something crooked around here," one of them told me.

Earlier today, I talked with Democratic delegate Tawanna Gaines, who told me that similar things had happened in the previous election cycle. According to Gaines, Republicans recruited both nearby college students and residents of D.C. homeless shelters. Gaines suggested that some of the recruits may not have been paid, and were never picked up at the end of the day.

-- Jesse Singal
The Washington Monthly

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA 5:04 p.m.

My colleague Marshall Allen spent time at a polling station in Pahrump, Nev., a fast-growing, but still rural city 60 miles west of Las Vegas that Bush won by 20 points in 2004. Oddly enough, Marshall had trouble finding Republicans to talk to. Pahrump is the seat of Nye County, one of the largest in geographic area in the nation. Democrats there received resources from Howard Dean's "50-state project", in the form of a grassroots coordinator named John Murray. I spent a day traveling with Murray in rural Nevada this summer, and he was confident Democrats could stop the bleeding in the rurals, which is often where Republicans win statewide races. If Dems can achieve at least nominal parity in the rurals, they have a good shot. (Some think this is a fool's errand.)

And by the way, voters in Pahrump, Carson City and downtown Las Vegas say allegations about Republican gubernatorial candidate Jim Gibbons assaulting a Las Vegas cocktail waitress would have had no impact on their decision-making.

Patrick Coolican
The Las Vegas Sun

PROVIDENCE, RHODE ISLAND, 4:58 p.m.

With only five hours left at the polls, GOP incumbent Lincoln Chafee is going super negative. His campaign is accusing the state Democratic Party of illegally handing out sample ballot guides with the Democratic candidates' names already filled out. The GOP says this is illegal because the ballots do not have a disclaimer as to who paid for them, and could give voters an unfair guide.

But the Rhode Island Democratic Party Chair William Lynch (whose brother is running for Attorney General—everyone's related here) says the state party isn't involved, nor do they have any control over the types of fliers other political groups distribute.

Chafee's campaign manager, Ian Lang, says they're calling on the Democrats to "cease-and-desist" and "may take legal action." The campaign has several lawyers across the state monitoring polling places.

Lynch says he's been to about 25 polling stations and hasn't seen this flier. Then he said the Chafee campaign should stop just sitting around their headquarters. Let the mudslinging continue!

-- Nancy Cook
Reporter for WRNI, Rhode Island's NPR News Station

CLEVELAND, OHIO, 4:53 p.m. (EST)

I just talked to Ben LaBolt, the spokesman for the Sherrod Brown senatorial campaign. He says he's been hearing there's been high turnout by African Americans and low turnout in traditionally Republican districts. It's anecdotal, but it's a lot different than the dour faces worn by Democrats in the 2004 election, which was fraught with Election Day snafus.

-- Kevin Hoffman
Cleveland Scene

ARLINGTON, VIRGINIA ... As a bright morning turned into a grey, drizzly afternoon, turnout has been high in both Democrat-leaning and GOP-leaning precincts across Virginia.

Outside my Arlington polling station, in the basement of an apartment building near the Pentagon, a few supporters of Jim Webb and opponents of the proposed "marriage" amendment are now huddled under umbrellas, leaflets in hand. One fellow in a waterproof parka sits in front of a folding table with literature on my "rights and responsibilities" as a Virginia voter.

The chief polling officer has been watching over this precinct for 15 years. She explains that it is not unusual to have only seen about 400 voters by noon. Today's count by that time was 1100. "Exceptionally high," she says.

The Webb campaign volunteers were buzzing with the news. For Webb to clench the Senate seat, turnout needs to be extremely high across northern Virginia, the blue-trending suburbs of D.C.

But it's just after 4 pm, and the real trial starts now. Voters come in waves, the first wave in the morning, followed by a trickle throughout the day, and a rush in the evening. Polls close at 7pm. Currently just a third of registered voters at this location have cast ballots -- many more than usual for a midterm election, but not a fact from which tonight's results can be divined.

FRANKFORT, KENTUCKY, 4:46 p.m.

Secretary of State Trey Grayson says voter turnout in the Bluegrass State for an off-year election appears higher than expected. But he adds that it’s hard to say what political party that will benefit. “Prior to the 2004 elections, a higher turnout in Kentucky usually favored Democrats. But we learned in 2004 that Republicans, with their strong get-out-the-vote efforts, were helped with a good turnout,” says Grayson, a Republican.

Grayson had predicted that 43 percent of Kentucky’s registered voters would go to the polls today. About 47 percent had cast votes in the last two mid-term elections. “It could go somewhat higher because we are getting reports of long lines across the state,” he says, “but most of our reports are coming from the larger metropolitan areas.”

Grayson notes that Kentuckians are dealing with long ballots, especially in urban areas, and voting is taking several minutes. He attributes the brisk turnout to three hotly contested races for the U.S. Congress, mayoral contests in Kentucky’s two largest cities--Louisville and Lexington -- and a controversial issue of local water control in Lexington.

So far, no attorneys for candidates or political parties in Kentucky have called his office with any election challenges, he says. There have been sporadic and isolated problems with some voting machines in the state, “but nothing systemic,” Grayson says. In Newport in Northern Kentucky this morning, says the state’s election officer, one of the state’s new voting machines -- an eSlate machine – started smoking with the first voter, but the problem was quickly resolved. “The voter got to vote,” Grayson says.

--Jack Brammer
Lexington Herald-Leader
www.kentucky.com

ST. LOUIS, MISSOURI, 4:41 p.m. (EST)

The early morning machine malfunctions in St. Louis City have been fixed. Problems ranged from technical malfunctions with Diebold machines, to late deliveries of the Diebold cards necessary for people to vote.

However, problems still persist. TPM received a report earlier today of a machine in Webster Groves that recorded a vote for Republican Jim Talent, although the voter had intended to cast their ballot for Democratic candidate Claire McCaskill.

And in St. Louis City, some college and graduate students were prohibited from voting because their names were mysteriously missing from the voting roll. Washington University has emailed students to return to the polls and complete provisional ballots if necessary.

But the real test in the dead-heat Senate race will come tonight, when a majority of the city voters head to the polls. The city polls I visited today were only equipped with two electronic machines and about 10 places for people to vote manually. I voted in the County, which had eight voting machines and several manual voting stations. No problems had occurred with the machines so far. (As noted earlier, St. Louis County is the Republican stronghold.)

-- Kate Burson
Freelance writer

MEMPHIS, TENNESSEE, 4:38 p.m.

Whatever sense the rest of the nation has about the (pick one) pivotal/crucial/decisive (but at the very least, interesting) Ford-Corker Senate race in Tennessee, the one sense that is in play among many self-styled progressives here in Tennessee is the olfactory.

Can we hold our noses and vote for Ford? That has been the operative metaphor among many hard-core yellow-dog Democrats, especially in the local blogosphere, and even more especially in Memphis--Ford's home turf, and that of his family's political organization over the last 30 years.

What is commonly called "the Ford machine" is one reason for the existential predicament -- but not the main one. Though it still exists, the machine, such as it is, has been in neutral gear, more or less, since 1996, when the family patriarch, former congressman Harold Ford Sr. turned over his House seat to young Harold and went south to Florida, from whence he operates a profitable health-care lobbying business.

No, the main problem for these hard-core Democrats--numerically modest but influential beyond their numbers--is the right-of-center profile the current Rep. Ford has cultivated to make his current Senate race. Ford has voted with the Republicans in Congress on such issues as Terri Schiavo, the bankruptcy bill, the so-called "death tax", extending the Bush tax cuts, and even the recent torture bill. He is for the gay-marriage amendment and has shifted from his original pro-choice posture into a "sanctity-of-life" rhetoric that permits him now to call himself pro-life.

In fact, the public positions taken by Ford do not differ all that much from those of his Republican opponent, Bob Corker, who is regarded as something of a GOP moderate. So for some Democrats, it's definitely a nose-holding operation. For all the personal dazzle that has mesmerized so much of the national media, Ford still has to close the deal with his base.

He got help when Desi Franklin, one of the leaders of Mid-South Demcorats in Action, a local party-reform movement that has generally been cool to the Ford candidacy, sent out an email Tuesday morning that began, "I'm about to leave and do something that shocks even me - I'm going to work on GOTV at Ford HQ this morning."

All of that suggests that progressive Democrats might be falling in line behind the young congressman, but another hitch developed when word got out somewhat later Tuesday morning that a Ford Democratic Ballot, prepared by Harold Ford Sr, was being passed out as a guide in certain inner-city precincts. This sample ballot listed independent Jake Ford, brother of the Senate aspirant, as the choice to replace Rep. Ford in his 9th District congressional seat. Since almost all local progressives are solidly lined up behind
Democratic Party nominee Steve Cohen, that could cause some serious rain on Harold Ford Jr's parade.

--Jackson Baker
The Memphis Flyer

COLUMBUS, OHIO, 4:28 p.m.

In a strange reversal of roles, it is now Republicans who are complaining about voter suppression. If history is any judge, this means they're expecting to lose. John McClelland, spokesman for the Ohio Republican Party, has issued this statement:

"Phone lines at the Ohio Republican Party headquarters are flooded with complaints from voters who were harassed by Democrat activists as they entered voting locations. Other reports indicate Democrat poll observers are illegally trying to assist and communicate with voters as they cast ballots. In Stark County, Democrats passed out literature to voters telling them to ask Democrat election observers for assistance in casting a ballot."

Meanwhile, Doug Preisse, the candid chairman of the Franklin County Republican Party, is feeling a little glum. "We spend most of the morning and afternoon scrambling around for bits and drops of information, which cause your blood pressure to rise and drop, but mean absolutely nothing," he said.

Though he doesn't know anything yet, Preisse has what Han Solo might call "a bad feeling about this." Two years ago, he said he was filled with "anticipation" for election results, but this year, because of the anticipated disaster from the top of the ticket--Ken Blackwell's hapless gubernatorial campaign--he doesn't expect much to go right. "There's a little more resignation and a little less anticipation," Preisse said.

He pointed to a few Republican county officials and judicial candidates as potential bright spots on this dreary night. "We're just hoping there are a few babies lin our midst left that haven't been thrown out with the political bathwater." Preisse tends to be a pessimist by nature, he said, but he thinks he has "a little more reason this year."

It's worth noting that many Republicans, including Preisse, were at least somewhat leery of President Bush's chances of winning Ohio in 2004. That year, with the help of an anti-gay marriage amendment on the ballot that turned out religious conservatives, the Republicans caught lightning in a bottle. In a few hours, everyone will see if they can do it again.

--Dan Williamson
The Other Paper
Columbus Monthly magazine

ALBUQUERQUE, NEW MEXICO, 4:14 p.m. (EST)

In New Mexico, Republican Heather Wilson was shaking hands and greeting voters this morning at Church of the Good Shepherd -- with cameraman in tow. Meanwhile, Democrat Patricia Madrid was casting her vote at the University of New Mexico Continuing Education Center.

The voting has been smooth for some, not so smooth for others. In Precinct 603, in Albuquerque's suburban Northeast Heights neighborhood, the polling place ran out of ballots.

I just now got a robo-call from Governor Tom Vilsack asking me to vote for Senator Leonard Boswell. Who? I admit I had to use Google to discover that race was in Iowa. How did they get my number?

--Emily Esterson
NewWest.net

STUART, FLORIDA, 4:07 p.m.

It's easy to see that Joe Negron, who replaced Mark Foley late in the race for the 16th district, is from Stuart: The small coastal town and Republican stronghold just north of West Palm Beach is brimming with campaign signs and supporters today.

Negron's campaign has been in overdrive lately, with last-minute campaigning and attempts to distance Negron from Foley. Republicans have been simultaneously informing voters about the confusing process to vote for Negron—whose name doesn't appear on the ballot—and expressing symbolic anger for Foley: "Punch Foley to vote Negron" is their foremost campaign slogan.

In contrast, locals who support Democrat Tim Mahoney seem less interested in Foley, and more focused on issues such as the war in Iraq and sky-rocketing homeowners' insurance.

-- Charlie Reed
Scripps Treasure Coast Newspapers

CLEVELAND, OHIO, 4:00 p.m. (EST)

The controversial new Diebold touch-screen voting machines are anything but user-friendly.

When I arrived at my designated polling place, a school on the near West Side of Cleveland, I was handed a card similar to the one I use at the ATM. A veteran of using credit cards to purchase gas, I figured that I’d be an old pro.

Boy, was I wrong.

The first problem I encountered was figuring out where to put the dang card. I figured I’d slid it in the front, but there was no slot, so I tried swiping it down the side, which was futile. Finally, I figured out to stuff it into the top of the machine, as if depositing money in a piggy bank.

The card went in, but the screen flashed an angry red message that said my card wasn’t properly cleared. I tried again, and got the same message, so I called over a poll worker to help. He tried and got the error message. He went and got a different card.

Error.

A second pollworker was using what they called a “vote decoder” to clear the cards after use. Apparently, she wasn’t doing it right. “Maybe that was the problem – I didn’t press it hard enough,” she said. “I have a light touch.”

Finally, I got a working card and the machine came to life. With that out of the way, I figured the process would be smooth. But then I was stumped by the very first question: Who do I want for Ohio governor? Two of the candidates had “Lieutenant Governor” under their name. Was I also supposed to vote for my candidate’s running mate?

I chose the name I wanted for governor and decided to move on, but the rest of the ballot was just as confusing. Some screens had more than one race per page, and I almost missed voting on at least one. Then I got to ballot issues, which didn’t have the numbers by which they’d been advertised on signs and on TV. One issue bled into a second page, and it took me awhile to move on, for fear I’d miss the opportunity to vote on the issue. Also, when I wanted to change a vote by pressing my new choice, the machine buzzed at me. It took a second to realize I had to un-check my first choice and then select a new one.

It wasn’t just me – an elderly voter with a cataract struggled with the machine across from me, groaning in frustration, and eventually had to be walked through the ballot by a pollworker, who sheepishly read some of the man’s votes aloud. Over on the liberal website Dailykos.com, there’s an entire thread filled with Ohioans suffering similar problems.

When I was done with the ballot, the machine printed a receipt, which was kept behind glass. It took several screens to print, and I was tempted to try to cancel my vote halfway through just to see what would happen, but I didn’t want to be there all day.

On the way out, I handed the card back to the poll worker (the one with “a light touch.”) She scanned my card through the decoder and said, “Look what it says: ‘Can’t read card.’ Do you think he should do it again?”

“No, he’s finished,” said the pollworker next to her, though I got the impression that if I had pushed, they’d have let me go again.

-- Kevin Hoffman
Cleveland Scene
www.clevescene.com/blogs/

MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA, 3:51 p.m. (EST)

If any race in Minnesota promised to be a referendum on President Bush, it was in the state's 6th Congressional District, which wraps around the northeast metro of the Twin Cities and ends up as far-flung at St. Cloud to the north. The district is the most conservative in what has historically been a progressive state for nearly half a century. Minnesota hasn't voted for a Republican president since Tricky Dick in 1972 (native son Walter Mondale captured his only state against Reagan here in 1984), but, in 2004, Bush captured 57 percent of the vote in the 6th. And Republican Mark Kennedy, who has virtually voted lockstep with Dubya, was elected to the House seat twice.

But when Kennedy decided to run for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Democrat Mark Kennedy, it wasn't certain he'd be replaced by any friend of the administration. A number of populist, fiscal conservatives sprang up to challenge for the seat before the more White-House-friendly Michele Bachmann won her party's endorsement for the 6th earlier this spring. And child advocate Patty Wetterling, who challenged Kennedy as a Democrat and lost just two years ago, seemed to have much needed experience on her side this time out.

But as Election Day neared, Wetterling waned after coming into a dead heat with Bachmann by the end of August. What happened?

For starters, Bachmann was one of the few Republican candidates who didn't run screaming from the administration in Washington. She warmly welcomed high-profile visits from Hastert, Cheney, Rove and Bush--and all along the subtext was if the GOP lost this seat, surely more tenuous seats would tumble.

More importantly, Bachmann re-framed herself. She is a far-right evangelical Christian who single-handedly brought the gay-marriage issue to the Capitol in St. Paul while she was a state senator, and she frequently has railed against public schools while bringing religion to the political sphere. Yet, in this election, she positioned herself as a tax- and homeland-security watchdog, leaving "values" issues tucked safely in her back pocket.

This is smart in a district that, despite its red leanings, also was instrumental in getting Jesse Ventura elected governor in 1998. There are enough libertarians there who would find Bachmann's stance on social issues unpalatable--and might turn to someone more populist like Wetterling.

But Wetterling ran a campaign that can charitably be called wrong-headed. Most of her ads were attacks on Bachmann, but not on the issues that Bachmann could actually be vulnerable. Instead, Wetterling tried to paint Bachmann as a "tax-increaser" who was soft on issues like those dealing with repeat sex offenders. Anyone who had a vague idea of of Bachmann would know that these ads were not just underhanded, but entirely inaccurate. But the Wetterling campaign stuck with them until the end, refusing to paint Bachmann as the extreme social conservative she actually is. Minnesotans have a general "don't ask, don't tell" attitude toward certain social concerns, and Wetterling could have made much hay by holding Bachmann up as a polarizing figure.

In other words, it's a strategy that would have gained Wetterling about 10 percent more votes--which will likely be the margin in this contest by the end of the day.

--G.R. Anderson Jr.
News Editor
City Pages

For coverage of all the Minnesota races, go to www.cpblotter.com.

PROVIDENCE, RHODE ISLAND, 3:24 p.m.

Voter turnout has been high here, with a steady stream of people all day. Some election wardens have complained about mechanical problems with the new voting machines, particularly in two cities, Providence and West Warwick. The Executive Director of the State Board of Elections, Robert Kando, looked harried when I tracked him down at his office. He explained that although the state now has twice has many new voting machines, this has also created just as many problems. Some voting machines have jammed if the ballots are fed through too quickly. Kando says all of the problems have been solved, for now.

But voters are also experiencing problems with their registration. While I was loitering in the lobby of the State Board of Elections, I overheard several people complaining. Many said they'd moved and hadn't changed their address or re-registered, making them no longer eligible to vote. Some Providence folks were sent to different polling places when they weren't originally found on the voting list. The upside is that Rhode Islanders are very committed to voting in this tight election, and are going to great lengths to do so. The negative side, of course, is they may not be able to cast a ballot.

Something else to watch…the 17,000 mail-in ballots that Rhode Islanders have requested. And another fun Rhode Island voting fact: There are about 680,000 registered voters in the state—and more than half of them are registered as independents. So while Rhode Island has a reputation as a state made of Democrats, it's actually full of independent voters who usually go for the candidate, and not the party.

Now I'm off to the suburbs to see how the candidates are faring there…

-- Nancy Cook
Reporter for WRNI, Rhode Island's NPR News Station

DEERFIELD BEACH, FLORIDA, 3:18 p.m.

Broward County, ground zero for the 2000 presidential election mess, again had voting problems this morning. The worst occurred in the seaside town of Deerfield Beach, where an entire precinct was shut down for nearly three hours due to electronic machine malfunction.

"They just couldn't get the machines to work," Deerfield Commissioner Steve Gonot told me. "At one point, poll workers tried to use the software from another precinct to get the machines working. They were successful, but they didn't notice that there were differences in who was running for office in the two precincts. Several people voted before they shut it down."

In all, an estimated 70 people were turned away from the precinct, according to the watchdog group Election Protection, whose reps are patrolling voting sites in distinctive black t-shirts. Gonot says he has petitioned Gov. Jeb Bush to allow the precinct to remain open two extra hours this evening.

And here's the kicker: The precinct, which leans Democrat, lies inside the district of one of the most tightly contested Congressional races in the nation. Twenty-six-year incumbent Clay Shaw, a Republican, and Dem challenger Ron Klein are engaged in a contest that has the feel of a brawl: Shaw portrays Klein, a state representative, as a lobbyist-legislator with dubious ethical standards, while Klein paints Shaw as a rubber stamp for George W. Bush and the disastrous war in Iraq. The candidates themselves even seem a bit ashamed of their cut-throat tactics, which have played out in ad campaigns across South Florida. "Wednesday you can let your children watch television again," quipped Shaw to a local newspaper.

Yet each candidate's attack on the other has largely been accurate, and they seem to have fought to a stalemate (the National Journal recently predicted the race will be the tightest race in the country). Perhaps the best line has come from Neil Evangelista, a Libertarian running as a third-party candidate who has no chance of winning the seat.

"You've seen all their ads," Evangelista said. "Mr. Klein is right about Mr. Shaw, and Mr. Shaw is right about Mr. Klein. I'm none of the above."

--Bob Norman
The Daily Pulp
www.browardpalmbeach.com/blogs

CLEVELAND, OHIO, 3:11 p.m. (EST)

Apparently, the voting problems in Ohio are even preventing some elected officials from voting! The Cincinnati Enquirer is reporting that Republican Congressman Steve Chabot was refused a ballot when he couldn't produce proper I.D. Never mind that the workers recognized him and knew he was who he said he was, Chabot had to go home and retrieve a bank statement and a Social Security document. "My wife told me to bring two documents just to be sure," Chabot told the Enquirer. "I guess this just shows the poll workers are really doing their job."

-- Kevin Hoffman
Cleveland Scene
www.clevescene.com/blogs/

HOPKINTON, NEW HAMPSHIRE, 2:46 p.m.

Maybe you thought political parties sent campaign mailings to voters they'd like to lure to the polls. So did I. But here in New Hampshire (also know as Robo-call central), it seems the GOP may have taken the opposite tack. We're hearing that in Manchester -- the state's largest and most ethnically diverse city -- Republicans may have sent out postcards to Democrats merely to collect any and all that ended up returned to sender as undeliverable. The expected payoff for the unorthodox mailing move is showing up today: Republicans are challenging those Democratic voters at the polls, along with any absentee ballots from individuals that happen to appear on the same "returned postcard" list. It's still early, so stay tuned...

--Arnie Arnesen
www.ArnieArnesen.com

RIVERDALE, MARYLAND, 2:39 p.m.

Maybe it's my lack of knowledge about Maryland politics, but I could have sworn that Martin O'Malley is the Democratic candidate for governor. Apparently I was mistaken. As I approached the polling place here at Parkdale High School, a man in an Ehrlich-Cox shirt handed me a two-page fold-out pamphlet. I immediately recognized the front—it was the misleading Curry/Mfume/Johnson "endorsement" from "Ehlrich-Steele Democrats" that I blogged about earlier. Inside, however, was a clear attempt to mislead Democratic voters. Under the headline, "DEMOCRATIC SAMPLE BALLOT" was a comprehensive listing of candidates, each with an X next to his or her name. In the parallel universe contained within this pamphlet, Robert Ehrlich is the Democratic gubernatorial candidate, and Michael Steele is the Dems' pick for the Senate. The intent could not be clearer: to confuse those looking to vote a straight Democratic ticket. The handout cleverly conceals its purpose by leaving Democrats intact under many of the categories—for instance, Steny Hoyer is listed for district five.

I talked to the man who handed me the pamphlet. A thirty-something African-American who wouldn't give his name, he told me that, starting last Friday, some people had come to the Philadelphia homeless shelter where he said he volunteers, and had begun to recruit residents. Eventually, he said that 300 people filled five buses. He said he was paid $100 for the day's work. He was honest with me: He didn't actually support Ehrlich, but was pro-Steele.

Kristin Awsumb-Liu was also on scene. A volunteer supporting O'Malley, she was convinced the pamphlets could have an impact. "People don't know necessarily who the candidates are. I'd hand them the O'Malley literature, and they'd say, 'Oh, is he the Democrat?' And when I say yes, they say, 'Oh, OK, I'll vote for him.' But if someone hands them literature that says Ehrlich's the Democrat, then who knows?"

At the bottom of the front page, the small print reveals the pamphlet's origins. The two-line disclosure reads: "Paid and Authorized by Bob Ehrlich for Maryland Committee" and "Paid and Authorized by Steele for Maryland, Inc." Classy work, all around.

-- Jesse Singal
The Washington Monthly

MEMPHIS, TENNESSEE, 2:37 p.m.

A subtext of the Ford-Corker Senate race in Tennessee is the recurrent problem of voting-machine complaints and vote irregularities in general in Shelby County (Memphis), the home base of Democrat Ford.

Ford's aunt, Ophelia Ford, was ousted from her inner-city District 29 state Senate seat last spring when her Senate colleagues acted to void her victory in a special election that was held in late 2005. That problem stemmed from a legislative fact-finding committee's discovery that votes had been cast by two deceased people, as well as numerous ineligible felons and people with suspect addresses. Several election officials at the precinct level have been indicted in the case.

With the entire Tennessee political community aware that the chances of victory for Ford, an African American, may hinge on a large turnout in District 29 and other predominantly black areas of Memphis, the quirks -- real and suspected -- of the city's new Diebold voting machines are under close scrutiny. The Shelby County Election Commission acknowledged that smartcards used with the Dieboltd machines gave some voters wrong ballot choices in August primary voting. Renewed suspicions were aroused when smartcards turned up missing at a southeast Memphis site during early voting last week.

What likely happened, said GOP commissioner Nancye Hines, was that officials at the busy precinct got distracted and some people ended up not turning their cards after casting their ballots. It was "kind of like picking up a pen and forgetting to return it," said Hines, who agreed with her commission colleagues that the cards are rendered blank and cannot be re-used after votes are cast, anyhow. That didn't stop the state Republican Party from trumpeting the discovery that the voting rolls had still not been purged of deceased individuals, nor from asking for continued vigilance on the issue of the missing cards.

However the election turns out, challenges to the authenticity of the voting are virtually certain.

--Jackson Baker
The Memphis Flyer

HAMILTON, MONTANA, 2:22 p.m. (EST)

It’s a pretty gloomy-looking election day in western Montana. The mountains are shrouded in clouds, and the wind is pushing the rain sideways.

But the polls opened early, and a buzz has already started around town. The county offices are closed and there’s a holiday atmosphere here.

I’m sitting at my desk in Hamilton, Mont., the county seat and largest town in Ravalli County. This county is located just south of Missoula County. Missoula is a Democratic stronghold. Ravalli County is a Republican anchor.

We’re rural and conservative. Liberal Democrats who try for offices here are often seen as sacrificial. But moderate Democrats have lately found some success down here. Hamilton’s mayor is a Democrat, though the race was non-partisan. So is our County Attorney, and he’s been in office for nearly 20 years. Things are beginning to change in this fast growing county, but change comes slowly.

In Ravalli County, Senator Conrad Burns is still popular. People here hold staunchly to their conservative values: low taxes, private property rights, and guns. Election numbers should be in by 10 tonight. It will be a long day.

In 2004, Montana went all blue. Governor Brian Schweitzer led the way. He was the first Democratic governor elected in Montana in nearly 20 years. He did it largely on the strength of his personality. He shook people’s hands, let them pet his always present dog, Jag and looked them right in the eye and said he’d make their lives better. Montanans not only gave Schweitzer the capital, but also elected a Democratic majority in the state’s House of Representatives and an even number of Democrats and Republicans in the state Senate.

Roll forward two years.

Jon Tester is a farmer from the tiny town of Big Sandy. He’s missing three fingers on his left hand from a meat-grinder accident that happened when he was a kid. Schweitzer has compared Tester’s beer belly to a grain silo. The candidate’s signature flat top and “Aw, Shucks” smile seem genuine.

Tester was the president of the Senate during the last legislative session. Like Schweitzer, he’s a moderate. Throughout the race, he’s pointed out that he’s a fiscal conservative. He has promoted economic growth in Montana through alternative energy development and small-business tax reform. His closet is free of ghosts.

On the other had, Burns has been a lightning rod for controversy. The Abramoff scandal has hurt him in this election. But Burns has long been famous for his faux pas. He cussed out firefighters in a Billings airport this summer and has often let slip politically incorrect phrases. The latter habit is something I suspect people in some parts of Montana actually like about Burns. He’s always apologizing for something he said, and in a way that makes him seem more like the average Montanan than anybody else in Washington.

Tester has never trailed Burns in a single poll (Look at http://www.newwest.net/index.php/main/article/the_candidates_come_out_swinging_one_final_time/). However, Burns has often been behind late in the race and somehow pulled it off in the end.

In the end, Montanans, red or blue, are mostly reasonable folks. People in this state still pride themselves on doing business on a handshake. We know we’re different and here depending on your neighbors is still important to making it through the day. We know under the Big Sky, reputation matters: honesty, integrity, responsibility – these intangibles still hold a lot of sway.

--Greg Lemon
www.newwest.net

STONY POINT, VIRGINIA, 2:16 p.m.

My wife's family has been working our tiny, rural polling place for years. They adorn tablecloth-covered pair of their card tables, with Democratic literature, a borrowed pop-up tent overhead. Everybody knows everybody, and the friendships (and rivalries) go back decades, even generations. We've all taken turns standing out in the rain this morning, a big tent over our heads, a carafe of hot coffee and a basket of doughnuts for voters of all political stripes.

Stony Point is about 10 miles from Charlottesville, Va., in Albemarle County. (Charlottesville is liberal, Albemarle is historically conservative, though that's been changing.) Democrats are outnumbering Republicans here at least three to two, though the gap may well be starker still. Conservatives are openly opposing the state's badly-written gay marriage amendment, and liberals are leaving with a twinkle in their eye, thrilled with the clear momentum here in our neck of the woods. I don't know if the electorate has changed or if it's the same old folks changing their minds, but it does my heart good to watch.

Turnout in this swing precinct has been strikingly high today. We had more people vote by 6:30 a.m. than we recall showing up all day during the senate primaries this spring. Normally we have maybe 40% of the voters show up before work, 40% after work, with the remaining 20% spread out over the course of the day. Much of the day's poll work actually consisting of catching up on a little reading. Not today. The traffic is constant, despite the cold drizzle. We need two, even three volunteers to keep up with the traffic. My copy of Macworld went unopened.

--Waldo Jaquith
waldo.jaquith.org

COLUMBUS, OHIO, 2:11 p.m. (EST)

The rain has picked up in Central Ohio, which the Democrats will no doubt blame on Secretary of State Blackwell. (They blamed everything but the rain on Blackwell during the contentious 2004 election in Ohio and hope to take their frustrations out on him today by ending his political career.)

Accounts of voting problems and irregularities have continued all day. Cliff Arnebeck, a liberal attorney who has fought against Republican-enacted voting restrictions sent out this report just before noon:

"Voters all over the state are being erroneously required to provide additional ID with current address information when they present valid drivers' license with a former address. When any of these 600,000 Ohio registered voters do not have additional ID with the current address, they are being required to vote provisionally--in violation of the law and as an added burden upon the right to vote."

Arnebeck said Blackwell's office has acknowledged "the problem exists."

Meanwhile, Scott Kozar, campaign manager for Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy, sounded optimistic about his candidate's chances late this morning. He declined to predict the percentage of the vote his candidate will get today, but said, "Mary Jo will win."

"We had internal polls last week that had us up at least five, and I don't think anything in the climate has changed since then." Kozar dismissed the contention from Pryce campaign manager Johnny DeStefano that the race was even. "They never, ever say that they're ahead. They always say they've closed the gap. But that doesn't mean they're ahead," Kozar said. "One or two down means that they're five down and have a four-point margin of error. That's exactly what my poll says."

--Dan Williamson
The Other Paper
Columbus Monthly magazine

HOPKINTON, NEW HAMPSHIRE, 1:52 pm

Republican Charlie Bass must be sensing the impending loss. Just yesterday, he was seen walking the streets of Nashua (New Hampshire's second largest city) with US Senator Judd Gregg, US Senator John Sununu, Former Congressman Bill Zeliff and Nashua Mayor Bernie Streeter. I'm told it looked more like a funeral procession than a campaign stroll. To add to Bass's problems, the image of the Republican top brass walking around with him stepped on his message that he is an independent who doesn't walk in lockstep with the Republican Party.

Arnie Arnesen
www.ArnieArnesen.com

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA, 1:40 p.m. (EST)

With early voting and vote-by-mail, it's quite possible that half of all Nevadans to vote this year have already done so. Clark County, home of Las Vegas and its famous Strip, contains 70 percent of the population, although turnout tends to be lighter than in Reno and its suburbs, and far lighter than the state's rural counties. Outside Clark County, the state is heavily Republican, so Democrats will need a big turnout in Clark. Nearly 190,000 Clark County residents -- or 29 percent -- had voted by Tuesday, similar to early voting numbers in 2002, when Democrats were drubbed up and down the ballot. Of those voting early and by mail, 45 percent were Democrats, 41 percent Republicans, and the rest either minor party or unaffiliated. (A hat tip to my colleague Jon Ralston, who ran these numbers last week.)

In NV3, which includes the Las Vegas suburbs, Sen. Harry Reid's former press secretary, Democrat Tessa Hafen has run a tough campaign against GOP Rep. Jon Porter. Dems have a slight registration advantage in the district, but so far 1,200 more Republicans than Democrats have voted. In polls, Porter has slipped into the mid-40s, but he's used a big financial advantage to paint Hafen as a carpetbagger who would give away the store to illegal immigrants. David Cherry, Hafen's press secretary, told me last week that they've always believed they would need to carry unaffiliated voters, and think they will. And DCC chair Rep. Rahm Emanuel told me that Porter's number, which has been sliding, is a real danger zone for a Republican incumbent. But according to a Democratic consultant, Reid's political staff have set up a powerful GOTV operation. They'll need it.

Republicans, who have been in some disarray this year, have found solace in the fact that they're still standing, especially in the governor's race. The GOP candidate, Rep. Jim Gibbons, has been hit with allegations he assaulted a woman after a night of drinking; cronyism with a government contractor; and that he hired an illegal immigrant years ago while running hard on the issue this year. But he's used an enormous financial advantage to dirty up the Democrat, state Sen. Dina Titus, saying she'd raise taxes and give driver's licenses to illegal immigrants. At any rate, Titus is dealing with high negatives. Bottom line: No one knows what will happen today in Nevada.

J. Patrick Coolican
The Las Vegas Sun

MIAMI, FLORIDA, 1:25 p.m.

Lester Sola, Miami-Dade County's election supervisor, is a vision of bureaucratic order: gray suit, neatly trimmed gray hair, perfectly knotted tie, rimless glasses, and a flawless tan. At 10:30 this morning, he could be found briefly granting an interview to a Spanish-language television channel in the empty media room of the County Elections Department in western Miami-Dade County, an indistinguishable warehouse in the maze of office parks and strip malls that reaches to the Everglades. Sola's task today is simply to convince voters that yes, the machines will work, yes, the ballots will be counted, and yes, please come out and vote. It's a list of responses he will give in both Spanish and English, dozens of times.

In 2002, after the Florida legislature decertified punch-card machines in the fallout of the 2000 presidential election, Miami-Dade County purchased 7,200 ES&S iVotronic touch-screen voting machines for $24.5 million. The iVotronics made their disastrous debut at the September 2002 gubernatorial primary, where technical glitches caused polls to open late and results for the Democratic primary took a full week to tally. In a May 2003 evaluation, the County Inspector General described the purchase of the iVotronics as "a bad business decision." In May 2005 it was Sola himself who advised the county to switch to optical scanners and paper ballots — not only because voters were losing confidence in the touch-screen machines, but because setting up the iVotronics had quadrupled Election Day labor costs.

Today, however, things seem to be going surprisingly smoothly, and it appears that numerous election-day dress rehearsals and two weeks of early voting allowed glitches to be worked out beforehand. The machines were set up in precincts last night, tested, and secured. Voting has only been going on for a few hours, but as yet no major complaints seem to have surfaced. At my South Beach precinct, a poll worker said that the biggest challenge he had faced this morning was wiping down a machine after someone sneezed on it.

-- Emily Witt
Miami New Times

MEMPHIS, TENNESSEE, 1:17 pm

As the rain clouds that doused West Tennessee on Monday passed eastward on Tuesday, in the direction of the presumed Corker stronghold of East Tennessee, election-day voting in U.S. Rep. Harold Ford Jr's home bailiwick of Memphis looked to be as brisk. It had also been heavy during the two-week early-voting period that ended last Thursday, when almost 150,000 Shelby Countians, roughly equal white and black, cast ballots. That turnout level could give Ford the boost he needs to compete with Republican opponent Bob Corker, the former mayor of Chattanooga.

Altogether, some 875,000 people participated in early voting across the state of Tennessee. That was at a rate almost 50 percent greater than 2002. Word came from the Ford camp Monday night, however--on the heels of an election-eve rally in Memphis that saw Memphis's black mayor, Willie Herenton, a sometime Ford antagonist, make a rousing speech in his behalf--that 1,900,000 was regarded as a statewide "break" point. Any number greater than that would mean a ratio tilted toward higher-than-usual voting by white voters; less would mean that blacks had voted as a larger percentage of the whole than usual. Only in parts of the state does a black-equals-Democrat, white-equals-Republican arithmetic hold. (Nashville, the state capitol, may be the last bastion of the old majority-white Solid Democratic south of 50 years ago.) But ratios of that sort may still hold the key to the outcome in what is expected to be a close, close election.

--Jackson Baker
The Memphis Flyer
http://www.memphisflyer.com/memphis/

AN EMAIL FROM A CORRESPONDENT IN PHILLY:

Rendell/Santorum posters are popping up in major intersections in Philly. I haven't seen them before today, but I really can't overstate Rendell's popularity here.

CRANFORD, NEW JERSEY 1:07 p.m.

Turnout is high here so far— election workers are saying that it resembles what they'd normally see in a presidential election. One election worker told me that the hour between 6 a.m. and 7 a.m. is normally slow, but this year was much busier than usual. There was a constant flow of people flowing in and out of schools, and it's tough finding a parking space at polling places.

What I'm hearing from voters is that they're angry, and they want to send a message on the direction of the country. People also told me that they've been turned off by the overly negative messages they've been getting from candidates, especially the heavy amount of phone calls. One Democratic volunteer told me that when she made get-out-the-vote phone calls yesterday, some people told her that they'd gotten upwards of eight recorded phone calls.

One gentleman voting at the Cranford Community Center said he was enthusiastic to vote for the three ballot propositions facing New Jersey voters, but was leery of the candidates for all offices: "They are a bunch of jerks, all of them," he said.

--John Celock
Freelance writer

STATE COLLEGE, PENNSYLVANIA, 1:05 p.m.

Pennsylvania, per James Carville, holds Philly on one end, Pittsburgh on the other, and Alabama in the middle.

Here in Pennsylvania's vast midsection, the semi-urban blip known as State College -- the borough that's home to Penn State -- is a blue splotch in a red ocean.

We count some 42,000 college students in our countywide population of 140,000.

Most mid-term elections aren't enough to stir them. In the last one -- in 2002 -- just 48 voters showed up at a major on-campus polling place. (About 600 were registered to vote there.)

Color today much, much different.

At that same polling place, as of 10:45 a.m. today, more than 70 voters had already cast ballots at the same polling place. They included 50 Democrats, 14 Republicans and 13 independents, according to an informal tally maintained by a student poll watcher.

In State College, in a precinct populated largely by students who live off campus and young professionals, turnout is riding the same wave. By 10:30 a.m., 210 people had voted there. (In the mid-term general election of 2002, the total for the day was only 474.)

Early trends here seem to support predictions made by Harvard's Institute of Politics. Poll results there suggest that college students have been planning to turn out in huge numbers today.

Needless to say, the Senate battle between incumbent Rick Santorum and challenger Bob Casey Jr. is helping fuel the surge. And it gets a little personal around here. Santorum, a Penn State alum, was in the wedding for state Sen. Jake Corman, whose district includes State College. The U.S. senator also has owned some property in town.

And in the gubernatorial race -- well, incumbent Ed Rendell is a Penn State trustee. He lost the region in the 2002 governor's race, but he has vowed to fight for its support (again) this time around.

If early observations are any indicator, he may well get it.

--Adam Smeltz
reporter, Centre Daily Times
www.centredaily.com

BOZEMAN, MONTANA, 1 p.m.

Yesterday, an analyst on NPR said Montana might be the one state where President Bush’s last minute campaign blitz would tip a race for the Republicans. I hope he’s wrong.

A couple months ago my registered Republican daughter (hand to forehead, alas, where did I go wrong!) in New Hampshire asked, “When are you Montanans going to get rid of that idiot Conrad Burns?” I don’t remember if that phone call occurred after Burns had told the wildfire fighters in an airport that they’d done a piss-poor job of firefighting, or suggested D.C. taxi drivers were terrorists, or condescended to “the little man” who fixed the roof of his D.C. home. It’s hard to keep track of Burns’ cowboy boot-in-mouth episodes.

I told my daughter, “We’re trying, we’re trying!” At that time it looked like Tester was a good bet but not a sure thing to unseat the folksy Burns. Since then the polls and prognosticators put Tester well in the lead and Republicans were apparently writing off the seat. Until the past few days -- now the pundits are calling the race even.

Certainly the fact that Burns has been called the most corrupt senator in Washington has embarrassed many Montanans. His connections with Jack Abramoff (he received more money from the convicted felon and his clients than any other senator) are also revealing. In a state with seven Indian reservations where people live at the very bottom of the state’s economic scale (and keep in mind that Montana’s wage levels are at the nation’s bottom) it was fascinating to learn that Abramoff had persuaded Burns to vote benefits to some wealthy out of state Indian tribes.

Personally, I was intrigued by Conrad’s most obvious vote change immediately after receiving a big Abramoff-orchestrated contribution: he changed his vote and voted against imposing U.S. labor standards on the sweatshops on the island of Saipan. I lived and worked in Saipan for three years in the 1960s, when the only sweatshops were whatever room you were typing or cooking or meeting in if it wasn’t air-conditioned. I never dreamed that my island experience would ever connect to my life when I returned to my hometown in Montana, but such is the long arm of coincidence in the Russian novel of my life.

Ah, but do Montana voters care about questionable dealings in Saipan?

I believe that a substantial number of voters care, and will vote for Tester. However, there are many others who don’t really mind what Conrad does as long as he continues to steer federal pork to Montana projects. (Here in Bozeman we’re very aware of Conrad’s help in securing money for various projects. Montana State University even has a Burns Technology Center to honor the senator’s history of bringing home the bacon.)

And then there are those Montanans who adore Conrad for his rudeness, who share his disdain for folks with different skin color or for people who wear turbans instead of Stetsons.

It’s all pretty hard to stomach for someone like me who grew up admiring the late Senator Mike Mansfield as the epitome of what a Montana politician could be: powerful, laconic, intelligent, and very sensitive to other cultures (he was ambassador to Japan when I was stationed there as a U.S. foreign service information officer).

Now if you’ll excuse me, I’m going to stroll across the street to my polling place and cast my vote for Jon Tester.

--Marjorie Smith
New West Network
www.newwest.net

COLUMBUS, OHIO, 12:53 p.m.

The congresswoman just stopped by her downtown campaign headquarters to place thank-you calls. She's wearing a red suit, which appears to be coordinated with all of her staffers and volunteers, who are wearing their red “Pryce for Congress” T-shirts. Upon arrival, she announced to the amusement of her staff, "Mary Jo was at my polling place all morning."

Deborah Pryce was elected in 1992 and has coasted to re-election ever since. She's climbed her way up the leadership ladder, where she's now No. 4, along the way. She's a supporter of legalized abortion, stem-cell research and gay rights, but she's been fiercely loyal to President Bush on foreign and economic policy.

Pryce seemed slightly annoyed to see a couple of media folks--including a reporter from Salon and a TV cameraman--in her office. "What are we doing? Just photographing me making phone calls?" she asked. After consulting with her communications director, who had put out a press release announcing her availability, she took a few questions.

She said she'd just delivered a pumpkin pie--which she made herself last night--to her daughter's pre-school and was about to have lunch with some old friends and supporters. She said she felt "very positive," but didn't seem terribly confident. "I'm glad it's almost over," she said, adding, "I hope it's over tonight."

It might not be. Complaints of problems have been heavy enough that the Columbus Dispatch has reported that the Franklin County Board of Elections phone system crashed this morning for about 90 minutes. The phones are back up now, however. And there have been complaints of long lines and other issues in the Democratic-leaning suburb of Bexley--which is not part of Pryce's district. Here's dissatisfied one voter's account:

"I waited an hour to vote in Bexley. Two of the five booths weren't working. And they were not following proper protocols for directing the voters. Basically, you are only supposed to receive an authorization to vote card right before you vote. Once you have the card you can't leave. If you do, you lose your vote. Well, only five of those cards are supposed to be handed out at a time. The polling lady in Bexley was handing them out to everyone and then they were standing in line to vote. Several people got to the point where they couldn't wait any longer, but since they had the authorization-to-vote card, they would forfeit their vote if they left. I told the polling people they were not following
the right procedure three times, but they continued to ignore me."

If this election is close, problems like this one could loom large.

--Dan Williamson
The Other Paper
Columbus Monthly magazine

NEW ALBANY, INDIANA, 12:30 p.m.

The sky is still gray here, and the rain is spitting onto the morning traffic and the voters who have been hitting the polls to vote in one of the country's tightest Congressional races—between Republican Rep. Mike Sodrel and his Democratic opponent, former representative Baron Hill. This is the third time the two men have faced off for this 9th District seat. In 2002, Hill sought a third term in the district and won the race by 5 percentage points. When the two met again in 2004, fewer than 1,500 votes put Sodrel in the seat.

But that's all old history this morning. The campaign, which has been saturated with negative ads (most paid for by the national political parties), has left most locals with a bad feeling about this election and national politics.

The first polling place I visited was at New Albany High School, where Sodrel graduated in 1963. A slender woman with coifed auburn curls held the door for me and looked me in the eye. "Well, I'm glad this is over. Aren't you?" Martha Cooley, another voter at the high school, called the campaign "horrible" and "dirty." But Cooley, who said she comes from a politically active family, didn't wholly blame the candidates, both of whom she has met.

"They are both really nice men," she said.

The ads for Hill have tried to label Sodrel, who owns a thriving trucking business, as "Millionaire Mike," while Sodrel's ads have tried to define Hill as a "career politician."

I visited my father on Sunday night and he talked about what he was going to do with his vote, which surprised me. Of course, he first complained about the ads, with the earnest and somewhat sinister voiceovers. He told me that he thinks Hill is a career politician, whereas he knows Sodrel, who is from the town next door to his town in Southern Indiana. (Here, on the 9th District's southernmost point that abuts the Ohio River and Louisville, Ky.,it seems everyone is connected through family or high school or church or work.) But he said he wasn't planning on voting for Sodrel. Instead, he said he was seriously considering voting for the Libertarian candidate, Eric Schansberg, who is an economics professor at Indiana University Southeast in New Albany. Schansberg has been in two debates with Hill and Sodrel and run radio ads.

If many people in the 9th District are thinking like my father, then Schansberg—whose conservative positions are closer to Sodrel's views than to Hill's—could push a victory Hill's way. But it's hard to tell. Driving throughout this part of the district, signs for Hill and Sodrel are intermingled in all kinds of neighborhoods. It's common to see next-door neighbors display their political differences: in one yard stands a sign for Hill; in the next house there's one for Sodrel. While I haven't seen any fights of any kind, there is a discernible tension here over this race.

One poll worker compared it to the situation in Kentucky during the Civil War, when often neighbors and ever brothers found themselves on different sides of the conflict. But while many voters here don't see yet to eye on the war in Iraq or how the current government is managing the economy, they aren't likely to fight over those differences.

They do seem to care about this election, if turnout at the polls I visited is an indication. By 10 a.m., nearly 10 percent of the registered voters in one precinct at New Albany High School had already turned up.

--Elizabeth Kramer
The Louisville Eccentric Observer

LEXINGTON, KENTUCKY, 12:22 p.m.

Hard to imagine that the Ohio River Valley of Kentucky and Indiana is the early bellwether this evening, but it’s true. So let’s just stick that turkey thermometer right into the Ohio River as we close the oven door for the early 6:00 pm closing of the polls here. Six Republican-held seats (KY2, KY3, KY4, IN2, IN8, and IN9) are in imminent peril, four of them alone in the Louisville media market.

Kentucky has become the most improbable epicenter of activity this evening. The state, which has sharply trended Republican over the past decade, contains a Republican governor, and two Republican senators. Five of the six congressional seats are held by the GOP (Ben Chandler is the state’s lone Democrat), and we have a Republican-controlled state Senate. Bush carried the state with 60% of the vote in 2004.

Most in the state expected that the race in KY4 between freshman Rep. Geoff Davis (R) and former Rep. Ken Lucas (D) would be the major focus on Election Day. No doubt it’s a complete toss-up this morning, with most late independent polls favoring Lucas, but it’s been KY3 (Louisville) that has become a barn-burner that few expected.

There, battle-tested Rep. Anne Northup (R) may have hit the end of the road against John Yarmuth (D), the founder of the city’s alternative weekly newspaper in a district that is overwhelmingly Democratic in registration and one of the lone districts in the Bluegrass that both Al Gore and John Kerry carried. The final three independent polls showed Yarmuth up by six, eight and five points. While Northup has handled tougher opponents before, she’s never had to run in this political environment, where being a Republican, and her strong ties to President Bush, are negatives.

In KY2, Rep. Ron Lewis (R) came into office in 1994 in the Republican wave that took this seat away from decades of Democratic representation. This is the state’s most conservative district, where Bush garnered 68% of the vote in 2004. But Lewis has found himself in the fight of his political life against former Army colonel and state legislator Mike Weaver (D) who’s about as conservative as a Democratic can get. Weaver has run a lackluster campaign and has had trouble raising money but Lewis’s constant missteps and the tough political environment – even in this reddest of patches of the Bluegrass – has turned this into a race.

So far, turnout has been very strong this morning in the state’s urban and Democratic areas of Louisville and Lexington, and there have been long lines at many polling stations. Anecdotal evidence suggests stronger than the projected 43% turnout.

The conventional wisdom is that the Yarmuth race is the most likely Democratic pickup, followed by the Lucas and Weaver races.

Mark Nickolas
BluegrassReport.org

PROVIDENCE, RHODE ISLAND, 12:13 p.m.

Rhode Islanders are expected to visit the polls in record numbers today, particularly since its Senate race has suddenly become quite close. That's after a week or so of Democrats thinking they'd win the seat.

Meanwhile, the two candidates (who are shockingly similar in both pedigree and in ideology) have been scurrying around to every senior center and supermarket imaginable. GOP incumbent Lincoln Chafee (we'll refer to him as Linc here, as that's what Rhode Islanders call him— the state's that small) seems to be counting on his family name to motivate voters. His father served as the state's governor and then senator for over 20 years. Linc himself was formerly the mayor and city councilor of one of the state's largest suburbs (not to mention voting blocks). His Democratic challenger, Sheldon Whitehouse, a former state attorney general, is playing off of Rhode Islanders' disdain for the Iraq war. What I've heard again and again from voters is that they feel a strong allegiance to Linc and like how he's represented Rhode Island, but they really don't like this Republican-controlled government. They feel torn.

State Democrats have capitalized on this feeling, bringing in national party stars to raise money and get out the vote. Former President Clinton made a last-minute stop here last night to stump for Whitehouse—just in time for the 11 o'clock news. Apart from Sen. John McCain, Republicans have steered clear. Linc's been left alone to campaign as a moderate Republican.

--Nancy Cook
Reporter for WRNI, Rhode Island's NPR News Station

CLEVELAND, OHIO 12:01 p.m.

U.S. Rep. Sherrod Brown (D-Avon) arrived at the polls at 9:15 a.m., wearing a denim collared shirt to emphasize his middle-class message and accompanied by with his two daughters and wife, Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist Connie Schultz.

"Hey, it's in the bag," said an elderly supporter.

"It's not in the bag until it's over," Brown replied.

Despite his attempts to project cautiousness, Brown was clearly confident in his advantage over incumbent Senator Mike DeWine (R-Ohio).

The latest polls give Brown a six point lead among registered voters. Brown looked well-rested and said he had gotten five hours of sleep the previous night. When he mentioned that he would be writing his victory speech later that afternoon, one of the reporters asked if he would be also be writing a concession speech, to which Brown replied, "No." Asked for his prediction on the national picture, Brown said, "I think the Dems retake the House. I think the Senate goes down to tomorrow."

As he wrapped up the media event, Brown was surprised when a man asked him to kiss his baby. "I've never actually kissed somebody else's baby," Brown said, smiling. To which John Ryan, the head of the local AFL-CIO quipped, "For your fourth term, he can vote for you."

The Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Ted Strickland, was denied the free publicity of an Election Day vote, however, because a supporter of his opponent, Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, challenged his residency. Although the charge was later dismissed, Strickland voted absentee in October.

-- Kevin Hoffman
Scene Magazine

BLADENSBURG, MARYLAND, 11.45 a.m.

As you turn into the driveway of Bladensburg Elementary School, a seven-foot tall poster of Michael Steele greets you. Steele looks, well, awkward. There's something vaguely uneasy in his smile, and he seems unsure of what to do with his hands. One is open, the other half-clasped, like he intended to make a fist but never got around to it. Above his head, in caps, are the inspiring words: MAKE THE DREAM A REALITY! (The poster doesn't elaborate on the nature of that dream.) Down the left side are endorsements from eight individuals, but none from an organization.

Inside the school, not much is going on. Turnout is "a lot lighter than I expected," said Robert Ambrose, one of the chief judges for this polling station, who has served in that capacity for the past five years. The quiet is misleading, though. As the race between Steele and Democrat Ben Cardin has tightened, Prince George's County has quickly become a vital battleground for the Republican Party. A Steele victory in Maryland would greatly improve the GOP's odds of holding onto the Senate.

The Republican strategy in Prince George's County--a solidly black and Democratic place--is the same as it has been since the start of the Karl Rove era: Shave a few points off the black vote. The dynamic of a white Democrat facing a black Republican has produced some unfortunate--but not unexpected--treachery, as the Post reported this morning. In the past 24 hours, an "official voter guide" from "Ehrlich-Steele Democrats" has been circulating. It features the images of several black leaders: county executive Jack B. Johnson, former country executive Wayne K. Curry, and former NAACP president Kweisi Mfume. None of the men has endorsed Ehrlich; only Curry supported Steele. Signs have also popped up reading "We R Not Slaves to the Democrats." And finally, there's this remarkable flier: "Ben Cardin Promises to Attack Jesus Christ, Pastors, Churches and Christians and to Take Away Blacks' Freedom If He Is Elected." Funny--I never saw Cardin make any such promises in his campaign speeches.

-- Jesse Singal
The Washington Monthly

MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA 11:42 a.m.

The Minnesota governor's race today is being called perhaps the tightest in the country, and pretty much every poll the last few days shows only a few--at most--percentage points between Mike Hatch and Tim Pawlenty. (Independence Party candidate Peter Hutchinson, playing to part of the crowd that got Jesse Ventura elected, is polling in the high single digits, enough for the IP to maintain major party status in the state.) This is surprising on two fronts.

First, six months ago, Pawlenty, a popular Republican incumbent who came to prominence as a state legislator, seemed destined for a second term. But Hatch, a Democrat who ran for governor nearly two decades ago and has since become known as perhaps the most stalwart attorney general this state has ever known, mounted a smart campaign that assumed the liberal base and went after moderates and undecideds. It worked in the weeks leading up to the elections, with Hatch showing double-digit leads in some polls.

Then late last week, the bottom fell out. Hot on the heels of John Kerry's hilarious stand-up bit, Hatch walked into a similar gaffe. Hatch has likened himself to a bulldog on advocacy issues, but the local GOP has tried to paint him as "too angry" to hold office, much like the knock was on Howard Dean in 2003. But Hatch played right into it last week, and it's costing him today, no doubt.

It's a complicated tale that goes something like this. Hatch's running mate for Lt. Governor, Judi Dutcher, subbed for him at a public appearance in outstate Minnesota. There, she faltered on a question about "E85," an ethanol fuel, and pleaded guilty to not knowing what it is. An outstate television station caught footage and sent it to a sister station in the Twin Cities. Both stations are owned by local media mogul Stan Hubbard, a big Republican donor and sort of a Fargo (the movie, that is) version of Rupert Murdoch. When the footage aired, a Duluth newspaper reporter called to ask about it, and Hatch, sensing a vast right-wing somethingerother, called the reporter a "Republican whore."

Hatch denied he used those words, but in a gubernatorial debate Friday night on public television that was also broadcast on C-SPAN, Hatch admitted he could have used the phrase. He expressed much "regret" without offering an apology, and hardly acquitted himself in the debate.

Rather than make Hatch look bad, the main import of the incident is what it has allowed Pawlenty to do, which is essentially sit back and pretend that he's a nice guy. This works in Minnesota, and especially for this governor. Pawlenty has remained fairly popular the last four years, while his policies, and those of the White House, are increasingly unpopular in the state. Now he's making a last-second surge, and projections are for a higher voter turnout here than in 2004, when Minnesota led the nation. This might serve Pawlenty well. If nothing else, a week ago his candidacy looked doomed—and now a victory is close at hand.

--G.R. Anderson Jr.
News Editor
City Pages

For coverage of all the Minnesota races, go to www.cpblotter.com.

HELENA, MONTANA, 11:30 a.m.

The Tester-Burns Senate race started out on a light note with Democrat Jon Tester ads insisting he could better represent Montana than Republican Conrad Burns because he had a better haircut, a close-cropped crew cut that one out of every 5,000 men wear nowadays.

But the contest quickly turned from cordial to cutthroat. Burns came out with both six-guns blazing, claiming Tester was a tax-happy friend of terrorists (because he wanted to repeal the Patriot Act). Tester threw out his clean campaign strategy, claiming Burns had been corrupted by Jack Abramoff and Big Oil lobbyists and is the biggest porker in Montana history, using his seat on the appropriations committee to bankrupt the nation. It went downhill from there.

But at least it didn’t get personal. No talk of family values; no dredging up twenty-year-old affairs with pages or altar boys; no claims of womanizing. Both guys look like freshly fallen snow on this issue, both happily married churchgoers.

One thing they did talk about was the Second Amendment. Here in the hotbed of the National Rifle Association, we like our guns (more than five per household), and hunting is still intertwined into our lifestyle. Both candidates featured pictures of themselves with guns in their ads. The NRA gave Burns an A-plus rating and Tester an A rating, endorsing Burns even though Tester had support from most hunting and conservation groups. Burns, on the other hand, landed a spot on the “Dirty Dozen” list of the “most anti-conservation politicians in Washington, D.C.” issued by the League of Conservation Voters.

They also talked taxes, both repeatedly accusing the other of being a “taxer” with the truth lost in the translation. Tester, for example, claims Burns wants a “23 percent sales tax” (because the senator voiced support for a flat tax), but forgot to say it would replace the income tax.

In the end, though, the control of the U.S. Senate emerged as the main issue. Voters in Montana seem to be leaning toward Tester’s “time for a change” position, primarily because of the price tag and seeming futility of the unpopular war in Iraq (or Trillion Dollar War, as it has been called in fiscally conservative Montana), but Burns scored rebuttal points with scare tactics about those evil eastern liberals like Chuck Schumer and Teddy Kennedy seizing control of the U.S. Senate and wanting to register our guns.

We don’t know the amount of money spent on this campaign (and we might not want to know), but this has been the most expensive election ever in Montana. The nastiest, too. Tonight, if you want to stay up to find out who wins, I suspect you’ll see only the barest minimum in congratulatory rhetoric in the concession speech.

-- Bill Schneider
Travel and Outdoor Editor
NewWest.net

HOPKINTON, NEW HAMPSHIRE, 11:10 a.m.

In 2004, New Hampshire was the only state that went from red to blue. That means that today there are three races--even though some of them quite obscure--that are worth watching. What they'll determine is if New Hampshire shifts from blue to fluorescent blue:

The Mouse that Roared

Carol Shea Porter, Democratic candidate in the First Congressional District. Carol came out of nowhere, no money, no real political history except some volunteer work on the Wes Clark for President Campaign, no relationship with the state or national Democratic Party--but she had a passion and an anger over the war that has surprised the pundits and the electorate. She defeated the DCCC-annointed candidate in the primary by two to one with less than $20,000 in her campaign war chest. As of this writing the University of New Hampshire Survey Center has her in a close race against the incumbent Congressman Bradley at 47% to 53%. If her grassroots support comes out big and the rest of the dynamic on the ticket plays out, she could win, despite having no help from the state party, the incumbent governor, or the national party. Her win will show that the anger in New Hampshire is palpable and that frustration with the status quo defeats name, money, incumbency and even credibility within the more risk-averse democratic party establishment.

The Anti-Nuclear Option

The second race to watch is Democratic state senate candidate Bob Backus. Bob is a retired lawyer and well known anti-nuclear activist. Bob is running in Manchester, NH, the home of the conservative newspaper The Union Leader, against the Senate President, race-horse-owning millionaire Ted Gatsas. Ted won last time by 61%. Ted is angry and afraid for the first time. Bob, on the other hand, is having a blast and giving him a real run for the money, and Bob has both the money and the campaign savvy to take him on and maybe even out.

NH's Mark Foley Scandal

Peter Glenshaw is running for a tiny race - Grafton County Commissioner. But Peter is an interesting candidate: he works for Dartmouth College and was one of the founders of Democracy for New Hampshire. Peter is running against the most elected politician in New Hampshire: Ray Burton, who is New Hampshire's version of the Mark Foley scandal. Last year, Ray Burton was found to have a convicted pedophile on his staff as both his driver and highest-paid campaign aide. Ray was asked by ranking Republicans to resign, but he refused. The Republican Party did not field a candidate against him in the primary and has been very quiet about his questionable past and poor judgment. Peter Glenshaw has been willing to talk about Ray's failure to remove the sex offender from his staff on the stump and in his campaign ads. If Peter wins, accountability will be noticed by voters and the Republican Party's failure to act, will highlight their hypocrisy.

--Arnie Arnesen
www.ArnieArnesen.com

Rosslyn, Virginia 10:30 a.m.

Turnout’s been heavy in this Virginia precinct, no more than a fifteen minute walk across the Francis Scott Key Bridge to Georgetown in Washington, D.C. About 40 people were waiting in line to use six non-paper-trail machines. A Webb poll worker said the line had been about an hour long earlier in the morning, but that very few people had given up. “It’s a very Democrat precinct,” George Allen’s poll watcher told me. “If we pull in 19% we’ll be good.”

My very unscientific exit poll has Allen below that 19%...

Of the 13 people that answered my three questions (party, senate candidate, gay marriage ban), six were Democrats who voted for Webb and against the ban, five were independents who voted the same way, and two were Republicans who voted for Allen and for the ban. (They were split evenly among gender, with three of the five independents being male.) That’s 15% for Allen.

But on the way back to the office, I spotted one of the few people who had refused the exit poll. I guessed she was a Republican, a charge to which she confessed. She said she doesn’t believe in exit polls and so refuses to participate. She wouldn’t say how she voted but did say she used to work for the Family Research Council. “If you know where they stand, you know where I stand,” she said. Chalk another one up for Allen and for the ban on gay marriage.

FT. LAUDERDALE, FLORIDA, 11:00 A.M

The word coming from the two gubernatorial candidates in Florida this morning: Vote now, before the rain gets a chance to stop you.

Wet forecasts across the state threaten to dampen turnout in the vote for Jeb Bush's successor. And the weather could actually play a factor, as polls indicate the race won't be a wash for either candidate. The latest numbers continue to show Bush's hand-picked successor, Charlie Crist, in the lead, but the margin has narrowed over Democratic nominee Jim Davis, who picked up some momentum from strong debate showings (aided, perhaps, by MSNBC's Chris Matthews' rather freewheeling style of moderation that included a comparison of Crist's logic to that of crack-smoking former D.C. mayor Marion Barry).

The race is vitally important not only to Floridians but also the nation, as the winner today is expected to have a great deal of influence in how the state votes during the '08 presidential election.

The real question: Will Crist's rather schizophrenic campaign strategy pay off today? The candidate has been running as a "Ronald Reagan Republican," a positive politician with a smile, upbeat words about Florida's future, and a whole lot of glad-handing and hugging. And he's good at that. In fact, his critics say that's all he's good at.

Crist's barrage of televised ads, however, is far from positive. Crist and the Republican Party have dwarfed Davis in campaign financing and have blanketed the airwaves with ads portraying the Democratic Congressman as an "empty chair" for missing votes on Capitol Hill while campaigning. More recently, the campaign has been running ads that chastise Davis for meeting with "terrorist" Yasser Arafat and members of Fidel Castro's regime. The ad opens with this line: "Which candidate for governor met with terrorists?"

In reality, Davis has a strong pro-Israel and anti-Fidel voting record. He met Arafat during a trip to the Middle East with Rep. Robert Wexler, a Jewish Democrat from Boca Raton, where he says he pressured the late PLO leader on arms shipments.

Voters, though, have been saturated by the Crist ad campaign. Most political observers I've spoken with believe that, rain or shine, they will help propel the Republican into the governor's mansion today.

-- Bob Norman
New Times Broward-Palm Beach
www.browardpalmbeach.com

COLUMBUS, OHIO, 10:53 a.m.

It is raining this morning in Columbus, though not as bad as it was on Election Day 2004. The weather people describe it as a "light rain" that should continue through most of the day.

There was a very short line at the polling place this morning at about 8:30, though the elderly gentleman working the desk said the lines had been much longer earlier. The new electronic touch-screen machines--which have a lot of people very worried in this state--are actually pretty cool, sort of like a bank machine that doesn't give you any money. Gone are the voting curtains, which means, potentially, a poll worker can stroll by, inspect your choices and offer commentary.

Ohio's governor's race never got close: Democratic Congressman Ted Strickland is expected to soundly defeat Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell. And only the most deludedly optimistic Republicans are holding out hope for Sen. Mike DeWine, who will probably lose his seat to Democratic Congressman Sherrod Brown. The Columbus Dispatch poll Sunday predicted huge victories across the state for Democrats--including Strickland by 36 points and DeWine by 24--though you can't find anybody who thinks those poll numbers are correct. Still, almost everyone agrees it will be a very long day for Republicans, whose best realistic hope is to win two of the statewide races while holding onto their majorities in the state legislature.

The most suspenseful race here is for the 15th Congressional District, where incumbent Republican Deb Pryce is in a dogfight with Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy. Kilroy is a liberal county commissioner and former Columbus school board member who has run an extremely efficient and disciplined campaign. Pryce, on the other hand, has never been in a tough race before, and it shows. Her campaign has looked like a fish flopping about
desperately on the shore. The Kilroy people think they have about a five-point lead in that race, though Pryce campaign boss Johnny DeStefano said yesterday the race is tied and the wind is at the incumbent's back.

Republicans unaffiliated with the campaign are split when predicting the outcome, though they agree that if Pryce wins it will be despite a flawed campaign.

Elsewhere in Ohio, Democrats are holding out hope for two seats in the Cincinnati area. GOP incumbents Steve Chabot (1st District) and Jean Schmidt (2nd District) are both vulnerable, though most Republicans like their chances of survival. The only district sure to change hands is the 18th, where Republican Joy Padgett will fail in her efforts to hold on to the seat of the indicted Bob Ney. The projected winner of that contest, the memorably named Zack Space, wins the "most likely to be a one-term congressman" award.

The most interesting thing going on along High Street--the main thoroughfare that runs through Columbus--was a huge blowup dragon advertising a Democratic candidate for the Ohio House of Representatives. A second one was spotted on an adjacent street. Can anyone explain why it makes sense to advertise yourself as a scary dragon?

--Dan Williamson
The Other Paper
Columbus Monthly magazine

CRANFORD, NEW JERSEY, 10:40 a.m.

There was already a certain weariness among voters as the polls opened at six this morning in New Jersey. In recent days, New Jersey voters have been bombarded by calls from such luminaries as Bill Clinton, Rudy Giuliani and John McCain asking them to vote for either the Democratic candidate, Robert Menendez, or the Republican, Tom Kean Jr. Last night I was at a college fair in Milburn, where one of the dominant topics of conversation was a phone call that many people seemed to be getting from the actor Joe Piscopo, a Democrat who is supporting Kean. (Piscopo starts the call by repeating his name and assuring voters that it really is him calling.) In the last couple of days, many people have simply stopped answering their phones. There's a real sense that people would simply be happy for the election to be over.

--John Celock
Freelance writer

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA, 10:30 a.m.

In Pennsylvania, Gov. Ed Rendell seems assured of a second term in office, and it’s likely that state treasurer Bob Casey Jr. will replace Rick Santorum in the senate. But there are a number of other races worth watching, several of which are key for Democrats in their quest to retake the house.

Among these are three competitive congressional races in the Philadelphia suburbs. In the 7th district, former admiral Joe Sestak takes on long-time incumbent Republican Curt Weldon, who’s been in office for 20 years and has gotten notice recently for odd theories on 9/11 and the relationship between his congressional office and his lobbyist/consulting daughter, whose offices were recently raided by the FBI. Sestak got a lot of sympathy earlier in the campaign when Weldon suggested that Sestak switch his then 4 year-old daughter’s ongoing treatment for a brain tumor from a hospital in Virginia to one in Pennsylvania.

In the 6th congressional race, Lois Murphy is taking her second crack at Rep. Jim Gerlach, who is in his 2nd term of office. He won 51/49 in 2004, and polls show the race close again. Both sides have been slinging mud for much of the campaign. Gerlach has ties to the Jack Abramoff that Murphy has been calling attention to. In 2004, the national Republican party sent out ads associating Murphy with the Taliban based on the support she received from MoveOn.org.

The 8th congressional district pits first term incumbent Mike Fitzpatrick against Iraqi war veteran Patrick Murphy. This one is also close, although Fitzpatrick is thought to have a slight, very slight, edge. (Full disclosure: I have been a Murphy supporter and have contributed to his campaign.) Fitzpatrick has tried to paint Murphy, whose childhood home is now just outside the district boundary, as a carpetbagger. Murphy has done his best to make the election a referendum on President Bush.

Farther north, it looks like Democrat Chris Carney will defeat Rep. Don Sherwood, who has admitted a multi-year extramarital affair but denied the woman’s claims that he tried to choke her. Carney, a veteran, Pentagon analyst, and college professor, has made values and defense the cornerstones of his campaign. The 10th district tends to vote conservative, but in this case that could include voting for a Democrat.

On the state level, there was a scandal in the summer of 2005 when the state legislature voted itself a sizeable pay increase in the early hours of the morning. This has become part of an anti-incumbent rallying cry, and it is very likely that Democrats will take control of the state house and possibly the senate as well.

I’ll be providing updates during the day as these races unfold.

--Above Average Jane
http://aboveavgjane.blogspot.com/

HOPKINTON, NEW HAMPSHIRE, 10:10 a.m.

Let me set the stage for today's coverage of New Hampshire. First off, full disclosure: Unlike Jack Heath of Meridian Communications and WTPL radio, I ran for Congress against New Hampshire Republican Congressman Charles Bass in 1996 and was the Democratic nominee for Governor in 1992, running on a tax reform platform.

New Hampshire may be small, but we are a critical state to watch because of our status as the First in the Nation Presidential Primary. Every Presidential wannabe has sent big checks, cut ads and walked the streets of NH with the challengers and incumbents. The changing political landscape is being monitored here more closely than in most places. For example, Senator John McCain was walking the streets with Congressman Bass last week and voiced a campaign ad for the Congressman. On the Democratic side of the aisle, General Wes Clark did both a TV and radio ad for Congressional candidate Carol Shea Porter.

If the National Republican Party is concerned about today's outcomes, the New Hampshire Republican Party is in free fall. They are financially bankrupt because of their ongoing defense of the criminal and civil lawsuits swirling around a phone jamming incident that occurred in 2002 during the Senate race between Republican John Sununu and Democrat Jeanne Shaheen. The state party is also message-bankrupt since they lost the Governor's race in 2004. In that race, another CEO, Democrat John Lynch, took out Craig Benson, a multimillionaire former Cabletron Executive, after only a single two-year term, a pathetic political performance that had not been seen since the early 1920s (multiple ethical problems and ineffectiveness were at the heart of the 2004 gubernatorial race).

As we speak, the Democratic incumbent Governor John Lynch (running more like a moderate Republican) is ahead in the polls by 72% to Republican candidate Colburn's 18%...and he is creating an interesting sucking sound at the top of the ticket. Things are so wild that they are suggesting that the Democrats may win the State Senate, a feat that has only been achieved maybe once or twice in the last century.

Further evidence of desperation: I was told that in Amherst, a very wealthy Republican stronghold, the Republican Party sent out absentee ballots to every registered Republican. Word is that the Town Clerk is pissed. I will try and find out if this story was repeated in any other towns.

The Congressional races are especially fascinating. In the second congressional district, Charlie Bass, the long-serving moderate, is losing. Polls indicate that Paul Hodes is going into today's election with a 47% to 38% lead (the DCCC has spent $1,000,000 on the Hodes race in the last two weeks--folks still don't really know Hodes but they definitely want to send a message to Washington).

The election today will also feel and look different because of the changed ballot. A former democratic state senator sued the state because of how our voting ballots were designed. He won. As a result, instead of the party that received the largest vote in the last election being listed first on the ballot (historically that meant Republicans came first every time) and the candidates being listed in alphabetical order, today voters will find random listings--neither party nor candidate will have an order advantage that has existed in the past.

Arnie Arnesen
www.ArnieArnesen.com

SHELBYVILLE, KENTUCKY, 10:00 a.m.

Voter turnout has been moderately heavy in the early hours today in Kentucky, where voters are encountering one of the largest ballots in the state's history. Overall, more than 4,000 races are being decided on a damp day in the Bluegrass State. Kentuckians are voting on races from local offices to the state's congressional delegation. Because several judicial races are on the ballot, voters cannot cast a straight party ticket. "With the big ballot, it's taking voters three to five minutes here to vote," said Bill Burton, a Democratic poll worker at the Shelby County Fairgrounds about 30 miles east of Louisville. Burton noted that it generally was taking longer for voters at new machines, on which voters must use a personal code, turn a wheel to look at the list of candidates in a race, and then press "enter" for their selection.

Voters in the 2nd Congressional District are weighing whether to send Republican Ron Lewis, a Christian bookstore owner, back to Washington or to favor Democrat Mike Weaver, a retired Army colonel and a state representative. Two other hotly contested races for Congress in Kentucky pit Republican Anne Northup against Democrat John Yarmuth in Jefferson County's 3rd District and Republican incumbent Geoff Davis against Democrat Ken Lucas in the 4th District in the northern part of the state.

--Jack Brammer
Lexington Herald-Leader

ST. LOUIS, MISSOURI, 9:15 a.m.

With the tightest senate race in the country, a contentious stem cell amendment, and brand-new Diebold electronic voting machines, the perfect storm is brewing in Missouri. Less than an hour after the polls opened in St. Louis city, the Diebold machines have already created problems. As the doors opened at a St. Louis city poll on Jefferson, two voting machines malfunctioned. The poll workers turned to the back-up optical scan ballots, which also failed to work. Having run out of options, poll workers told voters to vote manually and stuff the ballot box. This will slow down voting at this poll and require the vote to be hand counted—which, as we saw in Florida in 2000, isn't always the most reliable method. It's important to note that St. Louis City is the more diverse Democratic stronghold here. St. Louis County, which isn't using Diebold, leans more to the Republicans.

--Kate Burson
Freelance writer

TOLEDO, OHIO, 9:03 a.m.

It's raining and dreary in northwest Ohio this election day. Lucky for me, the polling place where I voted, St. Mark's Lutheran Church in Bowling Green, Oh., is only a block away from my apartment. I walked there in a hooded sweatshirt.

There were only a dozen voters in the room. I arrived behind an elderly woman who asked me, "Is this the room for both Democrats and Republicans?" It hadn't occurred to me that the parties would be segregated, so I said, "Yes."

After standing in line to verify my address with my ID (I had to sign my name next to a printout of my own signature), I went to a voting machine. These machines resemble the ones in some Taco Bells and other restaurants with electronic ordering procedures.

The only suspicious thing I noticed was the listing for governor, which listed Ken Blackwell, the Republican, first and listed Ted Strickland, the Democrat, last, with three independents in between.

Conspiracy theories aside, one of my co-workers suggested they were probably just listed in alphabetical order.

--Rick Claypool
Toledo City Paper

Washington, D.C…While the fewer than one million voters in Montana go to the polls to pick one of their two U.S. Senators today, I, along with the rest of the residents of the District of Columbia, watch in envy. This morning, defying all common sense, I trucked to the local middle school to vote, sort of.

Since 1974, the District has been allowed to elect its own city council, whose laws must be okayed by congress. But we still have no voting senators or congressional representatives. Because the town is so Democratic, the council and mayoral races ended on primary day. The only real post we get to vote for today is school board president. And the incoming mayor has already indicated he plans to eliminate the elected school board.

ALBUQUERQUE, NEW MEXICO, 8:40 a.m.

I live in Albuquerque’s mostly Hispanic, largely Democratic South Valley. My neighbor Fernando, who placed a “Richardson/Denish” sign on my front lawn without my permission, has lately been blasting Amy Goodman’s “Democracy Now” on his radio; I also suspect him being the one peppering the neighborhood with signs saying “Fire Halliburton Heather.” (That would be incumbent congressional Republican Heather Wilson.)

At South Valley’s early voting location, the talk yesterday was been about how, despite people’s efforts to vote, someone may try to steal the election. Mostly I heard of Democrats griping about Republicans, who in turn were worried about the slight lead of Wilson’s Democratic opponent, Patricia Madrid. But a few Republicans also thought the Democrats seemed pretty damned desperate.

Another concern is that New Mexico is paper balloting this year. I expect lines to be long enough to be discouraging, especially so to blue-collar workers and others with very strict working hours. In some locations in North Albuquerque, waiting in the early voting lines took more than two hours, friends told me.

Then there’s the ballot, which resembles a standardized test and takes nearly as long: fill in the bubble with a special writing implement, along with constitutional amendments that read like those analytical questions on the SAT. “If Joe has five amendments to be repealed, and Jane wants to amend the constitution in six ways, than what is the net change in the New Mexico Constitution? Please fill in the bubble completely.” Pity the second-language citizen (lots of New Mexicans, about 43 percent of the population, also speaks Spanish) or the person with a little lower reading comprehension than myself.

What this all adds up to is a great deal of confusion on voting day, long lines at the polls, and the possibility of a lot of straight ticket voting.

--Emily Esterson
New West Network
www.newwest.net

SABATO ON POMBO ... The little voices in his ear tell Larry Sabato that California's Richard Pombo will be unseated (narrowly) by wind engineer Jerry McNerney:

Our sources on the ground tell us that momentum is firmly in McNerney's court and that late campaign help from Bill Clinton and scores of environmental groups is giving Resources Committee Chair Pombo a run for his money. Schwarzenegger's get-out-the-vote operation may yet save Pombo, but we will go out on a limb and tap McNerney to win in an upset.

Thanks to Dave Roberts of Grist for keeping tabs.

It's too early to count on Pombo surrendering his gavel as chair of the House Resources Committee. But, win or lose, Pombo's race has been a remarkable bellweather.

This race that was considered wholly uncompetitive a few months, try as national green groups might to convince the ranchers in Pombo's district that gutting environmental regulations was bad for the nation -- and for them, too.

Between his attempts to sell off public land and his ties to Abramoff, Pombo seemed like the perfect example of a congressmen who was anathema to many on the national stage, but firmly entrenched with his home district. But since then, national forces -- momentum against incumbents, against corruption, for energy alternatives, for change -- have intervened.

Pombo's district begins as a far-reaching suburb of Silicon Valley, then gradually turns to ranchland. In a decade, it will likely be more populated, and leaning more Democratic. But few thought it stood a chance of shedding red this election. Maybe now it will.

VIRGINIA BEACH, VA 6:51AM Polls just opened here in Virginia Beach, and local Democrats are hoping to win a seat in what is decidedly hostile territory. Virginia's second district is home both to the Oceana Naval Base and Pat Robertson's Christian broadcasting empire. Over a quarter of the households contain active or retired service members and Bush won the district in 2004 by 16 percentage points.

Back in the spring, no one thought this race would be particularly competitive. But in June, MoveOn started running their infamous "Red Handed" ads targeted at one-term incumbent Thelma Drake, and her numbers started to plumet. Challenger Phil Kellam, a genial technocrat who as the local Commissioner of the Revenue is the only elected Democrat in the area, now finds himself in a dead heat on election day.

A 60-ish man with a deep drawl who's been volunteering for the campaign just walked into the office to report that while handing out lit at a polling station someone said to him, "That's the first time I've voted for a Democrat my whole life." Needless to say, Virginia Democrats are hoping he isn't the only one.

Note on Time Zones: For today's election day blog, time headings will reflect when posts come in, East Coast time. When posts refer to local time in the body of the text, they will from now on carry a parenthetical noting any relevant time zone differences.

--The Editors

HELENA, MONTANA, 4:17 a.m.

In a few hours, the polls will open in Montana. You remember Montana, right? It’s the state between Chicago and Seattle. It’s named after a football player. Montana may be the fourth largest state, but we have only one seat in the House of Representatives (as low as it goes), only three electoral votes (as low as it goes) and only 646,000 registered voters (not as low as it goes, but only beating out seven states – and if you can name them, you win a side of beef, grass fed, of course).

The point is, when you’re small and neglected and unknown, like my little state, you always hope for the day when you can shine. So it is today in Montana politics: we have a real nail-biter of a Senate race. The Montana vote might make the difference between the U.S. Senate being red or blue.

Everybody knows it. Last week, in fact, President George W. Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney were here. Laura Bush and Elizabeth Dole were here this summer for the same reason. Even the guy many Montanan Dems think is the Commander in Chief, Karl Rove, was out here to play a recent round of golf with our Republican senator, who’s threatened with late retirement.

Right now, Montana is not the color of its neighbors, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah and the Dakotas. They’re bright red, but Montana is officially purple. In 2004, we elected a democratic governor, Brian Schweitzer, and we’ve had Democrat Max Baucus in the U.S. Senate for three terms. If we could have two Democratic senators and a Democratic governor, I believe that would make us officially blue. Maybe not Royal Blue because we still have republican Denny Rehberg dug in deep in our lone congressional seat. But at least Sky Blue.

I’ll post some of the campaign issues and intrigue later this morning, but here's a reminder of names: Incumbent Republican Conrad Burns faces a tough challenge from Democrat Jon Tester. But as 83 percent of the registered voters contemplate going to the polls (17 percent voting absentee), not all will go. Some voters are boycotting the election because of the extreme negativism of the campaign.

A month ago, a telephone survey conducted by the Mason-Dixon Polling & Research showed Tester with a 47-40 advantage, but three days before the election, the same poll shows a 47-47 tie with only 5 percent undecided. Plus, a third candidate, libertarian Stan Jones, might grab one or two percent of the vote and decide the election.

That’s why I’m up at 4 am (2 am Montana time) posting this article, about the same time the editors at Washington Monthly are falling into bed after a long day at the keyboard, and so people back east can read it with their first cappuccino. I’m too excited to sleep.

--Bill Schneider
Travel and Outdoor Editor
NewWest.net

NOTE FROM THE WASHINGTON MONTHLY: The above post now includes a parenthetical clariyfing the time zone difference.

ALBUQUERQUE, NEW MEXICO, 12:50 A.M.

On Monday, I heard the University of New Mexico National Public Radio affiliate, KUNM, reporting that some voters had received calls from the GOP telling them, erroneously, that their polling places had been changed.

Republican officials have denied these allegations, but I found this lively post on a local blog, Duke City Fix, where a few commenters noted that they had, indeed, received such calls. The Democratic Party asked a state district judge on Monday afternoon to place a restraining order on the GOP to cease calling registered Democrats.

Hopefully such news will not discourage an already agitated voting populace.

--Emily Esterson
New West Network
www.newwest.net

Defection in Rhode Island: Is Linc Jumping Ship? Far be it from me to traffic in hearsay, but that's what I have from TNR's Franklin Foer, who has it from a friend in Rhode Island, who has it from Linc Chafee himself. See, that's pretty direct.

Mark your calendar! And bookmark this page: http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/showdown06/. Because tomorrow isn't just about the midterms. It's also about the Washington Monthly's Election Day Blog, which will feature on-the-ground reports from over 30 correspondents across the country. Need to read some tealeaves? We'll have bushels of them for you. Plus readers to make sense of them.

State of the Race: Final Update

The blizzard of polls released over the weekend and today suggest some tightening of the race, but do not appear to fundamentally alter the assessment I offered five days ago in my last update. Tuesday should still be a very good day for the Democrats.

Start with Bush's approval rating. Taking the latest polls into account, Charles Franklin's trend-based estimate now stands at 38 percent. Pretty bad for the incumbent party.

Turning to the generic congressional ballot, confusion abounds, so let me try to separate signal from noise as best I can.

There have been seven polls released in the last couple of days. Here are the results for likely voters (LVs):

CNN (Fri-Sun): +20D
Newsweek (Thu-Fri): +16D
Time (Wed-Fri): +15D
Fox (Sat-Sun): +13D
USA Today/Gallup (Thu-Sun): +7D
ABC News/Washington Post (Wed-Sat): +6D
Pew (Wed-Sat): +4D

Quite a spread! And here are the same polls, this time for registered voters (RVs):

CNN (Fri-Sun): +15D
Newsweek (Thu-Fri): +16D
Time (Wed-Fri): +15D
Fox (Sat-Sun): no RV data
USA Today/Gallup (Thu-Sun): +11D
ABC News/Washington Post (Wed-Sat): +10D
Pew (Wed-Sat): +8D

Somewhat closer together, but still a fair amount of variation.

Here are some observations on these data that may help make sense of them.

1. Charles Franklin's trend-based estimate (which actually doesn't include the most recent two polls, CNN (+20D) and Fox (+13D)) still estimates the Democratic advantage at 11 points.

2. The average LV Democratic advantage in these 7 polls is around 12 points. The average RV Democratic advantage is around 13 points. Still very good in either case.

3. Note that, reflecting the widely varying methodologies these pollsters use, the relation between RVs and LVs in these polls varies widely. Some (CNN) have the Democratic advantage among LVs actually larger than among RVs; some have it exactly the same (Time, Newsweek); and some have it smaller (Pew, Post, Gallup--interestingly by exactly the same 4 point margin).

4. Of course, it is entirely possible that some of these pollsters' LV methodologies are better than others. And there are certainly reasons to be skeptical that Democrats will actually manage a double digit lead in the popular Congressional ballot on election day. So let's say that, for example, Gallup has it about right--and they do have a good track record in the last several offyear elections.

Well, as Gallup points out, a seven point lead ain't chopped liver. Here's some of what they have to say:

Gallup has modeled the number of seats a party will control based on that party's share of the national two-party vote for the House of Representatives using historical voting data in midterm elections from 1946 to 2002. The model takes into account structural factors such as the party of the president and the majority party in Congress entering the elections. The results suggest that a party needs at least a two percentage-point advantage in the national House vote to win a majority of the 435 seats. Based on this historical analysis, the Democrats' seven-point margin suggests they will win a large enough share of the national vote to have a majority of the seats in the next Congress.

More specifically, taking the final survey's margin of error into account, the model predicts that the Democrats could gain anywhere from 11 seats on the low end to 58 seats on the high end -- with 35 seats being the most likely number. Given that Democrats need to gain just 15 seats to wrest control from Republicans, a Democratic takeover appears likely.

5. Some of the variation in the LV samples is no doubt due to varying estimates of how many Democrats vs. how many Republicans are projected to be in the voting electorate. Pew, which gives the Democrats the smallest estimated lead, has Democrats and Republicans at parity among likely voters. Gallup gives the Democrats a 2 point edge in representation among LVs. And Fox, whose estimated Dem lead among LVs is very close to the average of all these polls, gives the Democrats a 4 point representation edge.

It will be interesting to see on election day who's got that part of equation right.

6. Turning to independents, even in the Pew poll, independents are giving the Democrats a 10 point advantage. Gallup and Fox have independents voting Democratic by 15 and Newsweek has the margin at 25. This will be an important data point to track and indicates, even at the low end of this range, the Democrats will be well-served by high turnout of independents in this particular election. To remind folks once more of the historical context on the independent vote:

As far back as I can get data (1982), the Democrats have never had a lead among independents larger than 4 points in an actual election, a level they managed to achieve in both 1986 and 1990. Indeed, since 1990, they’ve lost independents in every congressional election: by 14 points in 1994; by 4 points in 1998; and by 2 points in 2002.

So this election could represent quite a turning point in this pattern.

As for the race by race data, not a great deal has changed since my last post five days ago. For example, the Bafumi-Erikson-Wlezien seat shift model, which forecasts the level of seat shifts through computer simulations of the 435 individual House contests, looks like it would produce about the same result today as it did two weeks ago (a 32 seat Dem gain), if I'm understanding the inputs into their model correctly. (This is very similar to Alan Abramowitz' forecasting model--not based on computer simulations--which calls for a Democratic pickup of 29 seats).

Also, Democracy Corps has released their final survey of 50 competitive Republican House districts and they're showing a slightly compressed, but still impressive, 5 point Democratic lead in the named Congressional ballot in these districts. Note also, that the DCorps survey shows the Democrats with a 16 lead among independents in these districts.

Majortity Watch has not done any new polls, so nothing to report there. Over at Pollster.com, where Mark Blumenthal and Charles Franklin collect all the available public polling on all the House races their current scorecard assigns 219 seats to the Democrats with 29 tossups. Assuming the Democrats and Republicans split the tossups, that would bring the Democratic total to 233 seats--a gain of 30 seats over where they now stand.

Over in nonpartisan pundit-land, Charlie Cook is holding steady in his prediction of a 20-35 seat Democratic pickup (let's pick the midpoint and call it 28 seats). Stuart Rothenberg has the Democratic gain between 30 and 36 seats (let's call it 33). And Larry Sabato has the Democratic gain pegged at 29 seats.

You know, I think I'm beginning to detect a pattern here. It will be interesting to see how it all turns out when the real world talks back.

Turning to the Senate, the latest Pollster.com 5-poll averages show the Democrats up by 6 in NJ and 4 points in MD, the two seats the Republicans have been given some chance of picking up. And they are leading by 1,3,13,6,12 and 2 points, respectively in MO, MT, OH, RI, PA and VA. Thus, figuring strictly on the basis of these data, one would see the Democrats picking up six seats, but with agonizing nail-biters in at least MO and possibly also in VA and MT.

Of course, several of these races are so close in the polls, one can hardly pronounce with a huge degree of confidence that the Democrats will, in fact, get their six seats. But it certainly seems like a reasonable possibility. Checking our nonpartisan pundits, it's worth noting that both Rothenberg and Sabato see the Democrats getting the six seat pickup. Cook is more circumspect, calling for a 4-6 seat Democratic pickup.

Well, that's it for the updating. On to the biggest poll of 'em all: election day!

ROBO JOURNALISTS... I agree with Josh and Kevin and Atrios about the pathetic unwillingness of the mainstream press to cover the onslaught of abusive GOP robocalls and push polls as the big story that it is. But it's actually worse than that. Reporters aren’t just loath to bring the subject up. They’re actively dodging the subject when someone else brings it up.

On the Diane Rehm Show this morning--a show that is meant to give political analysts leeway to say what they think--Diane (bless her) asked guest Juan Williams point blank about the partisan source of these calls.

Rehm: "Do you see Democrats making these same kinds of calls attempting to suppress or confuse Republican voters?"

Williams: "Gee, Diane, that was a judgmental question [giggle]."

Rehm: "You think so?"

Williams: "To suppress or confuse, no, I think that on both sides they're making an intense effort, and in fact the Democrats are making an intense effort to try to catch up with the Republicans' get-out-the-vote efforts, and part of that is reaching out to voters. making sure voters are engaged, trying to keep up the intensity."

Williams--who's supposed to be a liberal pundit or at least plays one on TV--then vamps for nearly a minute about how much money each party is spending on GOTV in this or that race before ending thusly:

Williams: "Whether or not you would describe that as suppression or trying to encourage or intensify your support is I guess a matter of judgment."

Rehm then follows up a few minutes later by reading a couple listener emails:

Rehm: “One from Missouri says: ‘Every single one of the messages, for as far as I can bear to listen to them, pounds home the idea that one or the other Democratic candidate in Missouri supports abortion and is in favor of killing babies.’ Another from Jeff says: 'Please make clear these harassing robocalls calls are being made entirely by Republicans in order to suppress Democratic turnout and these calls are not being made by shadowy Republican operatives but rather by the National Republican.' Juan Williams, what do you know about these calls?"

Williams: "Well, these calls are being made. And the idea in that Missouri race, which is a very tight race, as you know, between Jim Talent and Claire McCaskell, talent is the incumbent Republican, first time Senator, McCaskell is the challenger, the Democrat, what you have is a state where stem cell research has been a huge issue."

Williams then goes on for a half minute of week-in-reviewish observations about how both sides have framed the stem cell issue. But he fails to address the second emailer’s point other than with the passive “calls are being made” statement he began with.

The next guest, Karen Tumulty of Time Magazine, then jumps in. She skips over the issue of Republicans being the source of the harassing calls in favor of the oft-noted observation that the tight Missouri race will be the test case of “whether this much-vaunted Republican 72-hour turn out machine works.”

Having struck out with Williams and Tumulty, Rehm then tries once more, this time focusing on her third guest, Yochi Dreazen of The Wall Street Journal.

“Here’s another email from Jim in Covington, Kentucky. He says: ‘One of the most creative and despicable of this cycle is the false flag robocall call storm. It often comes in the early hours of the morning hour. The calls are scripted so that to a recipient who hangs up after the intro message is convinced that the harassing calls are coming from the Democratic candidate. Yochi.”

To his credit, Dreazen then actually