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November 07, 2012 11:26 AM Who Won the Election for Obama?

By Andrew Gelman

Mike Bloomberg and Chris Christie.

Sonia Sotomayor.

Paul Ryan.

Those guys distorting the numbers in some back room in the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

That waiter who secretly taped Romney’s “47%” speech.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Here’s what I can’t figure out: Is Rick Santorum bummed that he didn’t succeed a few years ago in cutting the budget of the National Weather Service (which supplied information that allowed an appropriate response to Hurricane Sandy, making Obama appear to be a competent disaster manager, unlike his predecessor)? Or is he relieved, because Romney’s loss opens up his shot to run again in 2016?

[Cross-posted at The Monkey Cage]

Andrew Gelman is a professor of statistics and political science and director of the Applied Statistics Center at Columbia University.