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April 22, 2013 8:47 AM The Partisan Effects of Immigration Reform

By Andrew Gelman

Alex Engler writes:

I just finished an article for the Georgetown Public Policy Review that you might be interested in. I took a thorough look at the influence of the Hispanic vote in congressional races in 2012, and how the party balance in the House changes under different levels of Hispanic party support. I used this to gain some insight into the prospects for immigration reform, and the results are really interesting. There’s also a few nice graphs and maps.

From the article: “the Republican Party has a great deal to gain from successful bipartisan immigration reform, House Democrats face little benefit and even, paradoxically, the possibility of significant losses.”

I have to say that I’m suspicious of analyses where the rebound is bigger than the main effect, but that’s just a hunch on my part, not a serious analysis.

[Cross-posted at The Monkey Cage]

Andrew Gelman is a professor of statistics and political science and director of the Applied Statistics Center at Columbia University.